Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T14:45:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
43 0x43ae…4ec4 other 14 markets active 1h ago coverage 5d
RISKYcopy with care Fresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$9 (+1%) realized +$10 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +137% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +98% what you keep after slip
Net edge+98%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate42%5W / 7L
Drawdown98%max
Avg bet$50per market
Trades / day8.0pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit21%portable
Net worth$99now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 5d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 88% +$21
world 7% −$19
sports 4% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)+114.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 +136.9% +114.3% 42% 42% -9.3%
≤30d 12 +136.9% +114.3% 42% 42% -9.3%
≤90d 12 +136.9% +114.3% 42% 42% -9.3%
all 12 +136.9% +114.3% 42% 42% -9.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +114.3% 42% -9.3%
10% +93.8% 25% -18.0%
15% +75.1% 17% -25.9%
20% +57.9% 17% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 41% · top 2 61% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +137% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -10% → late +284% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$20 vs −$14 · ×1.42 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.01 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

5d coverage
Net worth$99
Realized+$10
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses5 / 7
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions2
Markets (closed)12 / 14
History coverage5d
Avg bet$50
Trades / day8.0
Drawdown98%
Kalshi-fit21%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 12 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Yes 81¢ 80¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-1%)
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Yes 70¢ 68¢ $50 $49 −$1 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $51 −$19 -37%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $131 −$28 -22%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $30 −$22 -73%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $50 +$17 +34%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $5 −$2 -40%
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? Jun 13 $1 +$19 +1843%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $30 +$3 +11%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $51 +$42 +83%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $121 −$7 -6%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 12 $30 −$21 -70%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $101 +$20 +20%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 81¢ $50 1h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 23¢ $13 13h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 49¢ $19 13h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 57¢ $26 21h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 64¢ $10 21h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 66¢ $20 21h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 71¢ $76 21h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 54¢ $20 21h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 92¢ $100 34h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 51¢ $30 35h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 16¢ $8 2d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 99¢ $43 2d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 81¢ $10 2d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 79¢ $25 2d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 63¢ $10 2d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 15¢ $3 2d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 24¢ $5 2d
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $20 2d
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? BUY Yes 5¢ $1 2d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 94¢ $26 2d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 82¢ $8 2d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 70¢ $50 2d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 58¢ $30 2d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 64¢ $30 2d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 81¢ $30 3d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 98¢ $75 3d
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 3d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 71¢ $18 3d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 49¢ $51 4d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 99¢ $60 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $98.62 · official $98.62 (match) · 40 history records