Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T03:30:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
43 0x43b5…d185 other 4 markets active 2h ago coverage 2d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable
Total PnL −$116 (-15%) realized −$116 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +95% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +76% what you keep after slip
Net edge+76%after slip
Net WR75%break-even
Win rate75%3W / 1L
Drawdown90%max
Avg bet$188per market
Trades / day2.2pace
Kalshi-fit25%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 84% +$242
crypto 16% +$86
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +75%
net ROI/market (all)+76.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +94.8% +76.2% 75% 75% +30.0%
≤30d 4 +94.8% +76.2% 75% 75% +30.0%
≤90d 4 +94.8% +76.2% 75% 75% +30.0%
all 4 +94.8% +76.2% 75% 75% +30.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +76.2% 75% +30.0%
10% +59.3% 75% +17.6%
15% +44.0% 75% +6.2%
20% +29.8% 50% -4.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 72% · top 2 86% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +44% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +95% · $-wt +44% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$208 vs −$296 · ×0.7 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×2.11 per $1 lost it wins $2.11
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$116
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)75%
Wins / losses3 / 1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)4 / 4
History coverage2d
Avg bet$188
Trades / day2.2
Drawdown90%
Kalshi-fit25%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 4 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $122 +$447 +365%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $299 −$296 -99%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $208 +$91 +44%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $122 +$86 +70%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 21¢ $122 1h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 69¢ $299 12h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 69¢ $208 25h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 58¢ $122 44h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 7 history records