Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T04:27:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
43 0x43b7…1c12 sports 58 markets active 1h ago coverage 4d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$363 (-8%) realized −$385 · open +$22
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -27% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -44% what you keep after slip
Net edge-44%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate41%19W / 27L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$82per market
Trades / day20.4pace
Fees−$38est.
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$82now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 62% −$261
other 36% +$302
world 2% −$102
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-34.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 46 -27.2% -34.1% 41% 39% -10.1%
≤30d 46 -27.2% -34.1% 41% 39% -10.1%
≤90d 46 -27.2% -34.1% 41% 39% -10.1%
all 46 -27.2% -34.1% 41% 39% -10.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover20.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -34.1% 39% -10.1%
10% ← realistic here -40.4% 37% -18.7%
15% -46.2% 30% -26.6%
20% -51.5% 24% -33.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 33% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -27% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -51% → late -4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$76 vs −$57 · ×1.34 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.95 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$82
Realized−$385
Unrealized+$22
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses19 / 27
Est. fees paid−$38
Open positions1
Markets (closed)46 / 58
History coverage4d
Avg bet$82
Trades / day20.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 46 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Yes 73¢ 100¢ $60 $82 +$22 (+37%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 21 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $131 −$130 -99%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $152 −$129 -85%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 3.5 AND Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $151 +$248 +165%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 3.5 Jun 18 $40 −$40 -99%
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) Jun 18 $111 −$110 -99%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $163 +$227 +139%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 3.5 Jun 18 $242 +$62 +26%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $202 −$202 -100%
Exact Score: England 1 - 0 Croatia? Jun 17 $51 −$51 -100%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $41 −$3 -7%
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Jun 17 $92 −$7 -7%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $203 +$142 +70%
England vs. Croatia: England O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $141 +$64 +46%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $31 −$30 -98%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 17 $51 −$50 -99%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $201 −$200 -99%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 4.5 AND Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $101 +$51 +50%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $303 +$126 +42%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 AND Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $101 +$92 +91%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $202 +$105 +52%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $101 +$32 +32%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Jun 17 $101 +$65 +64%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $152 +$83 +54%
Erling Haaland: 1+ goals Jun 16 $101 +$55 +54%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $101 +$48 +48%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 16 $101 −$100 -99%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $104 −$102 -99%
Will Europe (UEFA) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $10 $0 -3%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $141 −$105 -74%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $71 −$27 -38%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $41 −$40 -99%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $71 −$70 -99%
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) Jun 15 $20 −$20 -98%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $20 −$20 -99%
Spread: Spain (-1.5) Jun 15 $30 −$30 -99%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: 2nd Half O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $20 −$20 -99%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $25 +$2 +7%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) Jun 14 $20 +$6 +31%
Spread: Spain (-4.5) Jun 14 $9 −$9 -98%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 14 $10 −$10 -99%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $10 −$10 -99%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 1.5 AND Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $46 +$26 +58%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $10 +$2 +21%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $10 +$5 +54%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Both Teams to Score BUY No 75¢ $50 1h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 63¢ $101 1h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 3.5 AND Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY 54¢ $20 2h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 46¢ $9 3h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 46¢ $12 3h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 49¢ $51 3h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 70¢ $40 3h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 73¢ $60 3h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Both Teams to Score BUY No 57¢ $81 3h
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) BUY Uzbekistan 55¢ $111 3h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 100¢ $390 3h
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 100¢ $303 3h
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 3.5 AND Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY 37¢ $151 6h
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 29¢ $38 6h
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? SELL Yes 30¢ $85 6h
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 30¢ $41 6h
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? BUY Yes 31¢ $92 6h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 41¢ $163 6h
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 79¢ $242 6h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 100¢ $344 6h
England vs. Croatia: England O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $206 6h
England vs. Croatia: England O/U 2.5 BUY Over 68¢ $141 7h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 16¢ $31 8h
Exact Score: England 1 - 0 Croatia? BUY Yes 15¢ $51 9h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 3.5 AND Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY 48¢ $203 9h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 74¢ $202 9h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 58¢ $203 9h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY Portugal 53¢ $51 16h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 4.5 AND Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY 71¢ $202 16h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $201 16h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $82.15 · official $82.15 (match) · 97 history records