Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T18:23:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
43 0x43b8…9438 world 43 markets active 1h ago coverage 300d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$6 (+0%) realized +$6 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +2% what you keep after slip
Net edge+2%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate36%15W / 27L
Drawdown6%max
Avg bet$29per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Kalshi-fit70%portable
Net worth$9now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days+$5
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 37% +$5
other 33% +$2
politics 11% $0
sports 11% $0
culture 3% $0
crypto 3% $0
economics 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)+1.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +0.1% -9.5% 17% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 16 +31.8% +19.3% 44% 6% -8.6%
≤90d 16 +31.8% +19.3% 44% 6% -8.6%
all 42 +12.4% +1.7% 36% 5% -9.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +1.7% 5% -9.0%
10% -8.0% 5% -17.7%
15% -16.9% 2% -25.7%
20% -25.0% 2% -33.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 36% · top 2 63% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
87% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +12% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late +23% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×6.63 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×11.04 per $1 lost it wins $11.04
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

300d coverage
Net worth$9
Realized+$6
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses15 / 27
Open positions1
Markets (closed)42 / 43
History coverage300d
Avg bet$29
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown6%
Kalshi-fit70%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 42 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? No 97¢ 97¢ $9 $9 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? Jun 23 $37 $0 +0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Jun 21 $10 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 20 $32 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by July 15? Jun 20 $33 $0 +0%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 19 $37 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 18 $4 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 01 $69 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 31 $100 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? May 30 $32 +$3 +8%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 29 $1 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? May 28 $18 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 28 $30 +$1 +2%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 27 $31 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? May 26 $26 +$1 +5%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? May 26 $30 $0 +0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 25 $33 $0 +0%
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Dec Sep 17 $7 $0 -1%
Will Trump pardon Edward Snowden in 2025? Sep 17 $2 $0 -16%
Will Raphinha win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Sep 17 $10 $0 +0%
Will the Toronto Raptors win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 17 $36 $0 +0%
Will the Houston Astros win the 2025 World Series? Sep 17 $31 $0 -0%
Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? Sep 16 $36 $0 +0%
Will the Atlanta Hawks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 16 $31 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk win Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Sep 15 $5 $0 +0%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Sep 15 $23 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Sep 15 $5 $0 +0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Sep 15 $9 $0 +0%
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 14 $35 $0 +0%
Xi Jinping out before October? Sep 14 $37 $0 +0%
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in US? Sep 14 $6 +$2 +30%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after September 2025 meeting? Sep 14 $24 $0 -0%
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in Saudi Arabia? Sep 13 $36 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2025? Sep 08 $35 $0 +0%
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 Democratic presidential no Sep 02 $35 $0 +0%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist in 2025? Sep 02 $35 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 02 $36 $0 +0%
Will Ferrari be the 2025 Constructors Champion? Sep 02 $36 $0 -0%
Will Chow Hang‑tung win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Aug 29 $34 $0 +0%
Will the Golden State Warriors win the 2026 NBA Finals? Aug 28 $35 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Aug 28 $36 $0 +0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Aug 28 $35 $0 +0%
Will the Arizona Cardinals win Super Bowl 2026? Aug 28 $35 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 97¢ $29 31m
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 97¢ $38 1h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? SELL No 81¢ $37 15h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? BUY No 81¢ $37 16h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 12¢ $10 2d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $1 2d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $2 2d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $7 2d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 89¢ $32 2d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $32 3d
Israel closes its airspace by July 15? SELL No 88¢ $33 3d
Israel closes its airspace by July 15? BUY No 88¢ $33 3d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 4¢ $3 4d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 4d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 4d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $3 4d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $31 4d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $33 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL No 10¢ $4 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY No 10¢ $1 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY No 10¢ $0 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY No 10¢ $2 5d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 96¢ $37 21d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY No 96¢ $37 22d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $23 22d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $10 22d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $33 22d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 56¢ $35 24d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 52¢ $3 24d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 51¢ $29 24d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $8.71 · official $8.71 (match) · 146 history records