Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T18:27:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5

score

43 0x43ba…fe72 other 22 markets active 0h ago coverage 166d

TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample

✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)

Total PnL −$7,647 (-47%) realized −$7,856 · open +$209

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip

Net edge-16%after slip

Net WR33%break-even

Win rate33%6W / 12L

Whale WR20%big bets

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$736per market

Trades / day0.2pace

Fees−$91est.

Kalshi-fit55%portable

Net worth$609now

Equity curve

realized PnL

1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

2 days+$284

7 days−$471

14 days+$772

30 days−$145

Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

negative after costs — do not copy

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +33%

net ROI/market (all)-13.0%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	6	-10.8%	-19.3%	33%	33%	-17.9%
≤30d	15	+15.3%	+4.4%	40%	40%	-11.0%
≤90d	15	+15.3%	+4.4%	40%	40%	-11.0%
all	18	-3.9%	-13.0%	33%	33%	-43.2%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover0.2 tr/day

realistic slip~7%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-13.0%	33%	-43.2%
10%	-21.4%	33%	-48.7%
15%	-29.0%	33%	-53.6%
20%	-35.9%	33%	-58.2%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 50% · top 2 64% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -4% · $-wt -37% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR 20% (≥$1,478) big bets weaker

Persistence

early -24% → late +17% mixed

Add-ons / DCA

1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$626 vs −$745 · ×0.84 wins small, loses big

Profit factor

×0.42 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

166d coverage

Net worth$609

Realized−$7,856

Unrealized+$209

Win rate (resolved)33%

Wins / losses6 / 12

Whale WR (big bets)20%

Est. fees paid−$91

Open positions1

Markets (closed)18 / 22

History coverage166d

Avg bet$736

Trades / day0.2

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit55%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 1 History 18 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Brazil vs. Japan: O/U 2.5	Over	43¢	66¢	$400	$609	+$209 (+52%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Brazil vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score	Jun 29	$304	+$284	+93%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-24?	Jun 24	$511	−$39	-8%
Exact Score: England 1 - 0 Ghana?	Jun 23	$1,679	−$1,646	-98%
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 0 Uzbekistan?	Jun 23	$615	−$600	-98%
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 0 Uzbekistan?	Jun 23	$481	−$354	-74%
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 1.5 AND Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22?	Jun 22	$1,526	+$1,885	+124%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-22?	Jun 22	$205	−$41	-20%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 AND Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?	Jun 20	$608	+$507	+83%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?	Jun 20	$203	+$305	+150%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score	Jun 20	$506	+$292	+58%
Exact Score: United States 2 - 1 Australia?	Jun 19	$142	−$91	-64%
Exact Score: United States 2 - 0 Australia?	Jun 19	$205	−$33	-16%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19?	Jun 19	$256	−$180	-70%
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw?	Jun 18	$205	+$483	+236%
Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase June 2-8?	Jun 07	$1,478	−$917	-62%
US strikes Iran by January 23, 2026?	Jan 15	$2,432	−$2,432	-100%
US strikes Iran by January 15, 2026?	Jan 14	$2,409	−$2,409	-100%
US strikes Iran by January 14, 2026?	Jan 14	$200	−$200	-100%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Brazil vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score	SELL Yes	100¢	$588	6m
Brazil vs. Japan: O/U 2.5	BUY Over	43¢	$407	1h
Brazil vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score	BUY Yes	51¢	$304	1h
France vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 AND Brazil vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 AND Netherlan	BUY	16¢	$500	1h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-24?	SELL Yes	27¢	$472	4d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-24?	BUY Yes	28¢	$511	4d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? AND Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on	BUY	17¢	$512	4d
Exact Score: England 1 - 0 Ghana?	BUY Yes	34¢	$1,679	5d
England vs. Ghana: O/U 2.5 AND Will England win on 2026-06-23?	BUY	38¢	$306	5d
England vs. Ghana: O/U 2.5 AND Will England win on 2026-06-23?	BUY	41¢	$509	5d
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 0 Uzbekistan?	BUY Yes	12¢	$103	6d
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 0 Uzbekistan?	SELL Yes	4¢	$19	6d
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 0 Uzbekistan?	SELL Yes	2¢	$11	6d
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 0 Uzbekistan?	SELL Yes	6¢	$96	6d
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 0 Uzbekistan?	BUY Yes	19¢	$512	6d
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 0 Uzbekistan?	BUY Yes	16¢	$481	6d
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 1.5 AND Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22?	SELL	99¢	$3,411	6d
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 1.5 AND Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22?	BUY	43¢	$1,526	7d
Will Austria win on 2026-06-22?	SELL Yes	11¢	$165	7d
Will Austria win on 2026-06-22?	BUY Yes	13¢	$205	7d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?	SELL Yes	97¢	$508	8d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?	BUY Yes	38¢	$203	8d
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 AND Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?	BUY	54¢	$608	8d
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score	SELL Yes	99¢	$798	9d
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score	BUY Yes	62¢	$506	9d
Exact Score: United States 2 - 1 Australia?	SELL Yes	5¢	$51	9d
Exact Score: United States 2 - 1 Australia?	BUY Yes	14¢	$142	9d
Exact Score: United States 2 - 0 Australia?	SELL Yes	15¢	$172	9d
Exact Score: United States 2 - 0 Australia?	BUY Yes	17¢	$205	9d
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19?	SELL Yes	5¢	$76	9d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.