Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T14:02:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
43 0x43bb…eaf4 other 249 markets active 2h ago coverage 141d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$75 (-0%) realized −$75 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate6%16W / 232L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$236per market
Trades / day9.3pace
Fees−$9est.
Kalshi-fit64%portable
Net worth$64now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$5
7 days−$16
14 days−$29
30 days−$39
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 44% −$37
sports 26% −$23
culture 8% −$10
politics 7% −$6
economics 6% −$5
crypto 5% −$3
world 4% −$2
tech 1% +$1
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 25 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 64 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 167 -0.2% -9.7% 3% 0% -9.7%
all 248 -0.1% -9.7% 6% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.3 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 34% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.5 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$0 · ×1.4 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.1 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

141d coverage
Net worth$64
Realized−$75
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)6%
Wins / losses16 / 232
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$9
Open positions1
Markets (closed)248 / 249
History coverage141d
Avg bet$236
Trades / day9.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit64%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 248 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 100¢ 100¢ $64 $64 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the Indianapolis Colts win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 20 $468 −$1 -0%
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2026 World Series? Jun 19 $144 $0 -0%
Will Julian Assange win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 19 $821 −$2 -0%
Will Xi Jinping win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 19 $385 $0 -0%
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 19 $356 −$1 -0%
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $522 −$1 -0%
Will Khaled Mashal win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 18 $335 −$1 -0%
Will the New York Mets win the 2026 World Series? Jun 18 $269 $0 -0%
Will Orlando City SC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 18 $319 $0 -0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 17 $388 $0 -0%
Will Minnesota United FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 17 $202 $0 -0%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $555 −$1 -0%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2026 World Series? Jun 16 $174 $0 -0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 16 $202 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 16 $289 $0 -0%
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 16 $176 −$1 -1%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 15 $643 −$1 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $596 −$1 -0%
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $451 −$1 -0%
Will the Houston Astros win the 2026 World Series? Jun 15 $360 −$1 -0%
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 14 $373 $0 -0%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $630 −$1 -0%
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 14 $67 $0 -0%
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 14 $730 −$1 -0%
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 13 $498 −$1 -0%
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 13 $526 −$1 -0%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $465 −$1 -0%
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 13 $139 $0 -0%
Will Charlie Kirk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 12 $278 $0 -0%
Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2026 World Series? Jun 12 $691 −$1 -0%
Will New York Red Bulls win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 12 $164 $0 -0%
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 12 $175 −$1 -0%
Will Edmundo González be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 11 $424 −$1 -0%
Will the Minnesota Vikings win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 11 $391 −$1 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $530 −$1 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $629 −$1 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Pirates win the 2026 World Series? Jun 10 $381 −$1 -0%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $312 $0 -0%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 09 $429 −$1 -0%
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2026 World Series? Jun 09 $410 −$1 -0%
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 08 $462 −$1 -0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 07 $437 −$1 -0%
Xi Jinping out by June 30? Jun 07 $341 −$1 -0%
Will Ahmed al-Sharaa win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 06 $658 −$1 -0%
Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair? Jun 05 $157 $0 -0%
Will the Washington Commanders win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 03 $73 $0 -0%
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 03 $264 −$1 -0%
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 03 $93 $0 -0%
Will the New York Giants win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 02 $235 $0 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 01 $248 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $64 1h
Will the Indianapolis Colts win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $64 2h
Will the Indianapolis Colts win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $64 4h
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 100¢ $64 14h
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 100¢ $64 16h
Will Julian Assange win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $64 17h
Will Julian Assange win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $64 19h
Will Xi Jinping win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $64 26h
Will Xi Jinping win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $64 27h
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $64 32h
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $64 34h
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $64 36h
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $64 38h
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $64 39h
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $64 41h
Will Khaled Mashal win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $64 42h
Will Khaled Mashal win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $65 44h
Will the New York Mets win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 98¢ $65 2d
Will the New York Mets win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 98¢ $65 2d
Will Orlando City SC win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 99¢ $65 2d
Will Orlando City SC win the 2026 MLS Cup? BUY No 99¢ $65 2d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 93¢ $65 2d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 93¢ $65 2d
Will Minnesota United FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 99¢ $65 2d
Will Minnesota United FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? BUY No 99¢ $65 2d
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $65 3d
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $65 3d
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $65 3d
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $65 3d
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $65 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $63.69 · official $63.69 (match) · 1383 history records