Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T19:45:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
43 0x43c1…bc18 finance 7 markets active 1h ago coverage 88d
RISKYcopy with care finance specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$77 (+9%) realized +$75 · open +$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -0% what you keep after slip
Net edge-0%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate100%6W / 0L
Drawdown0%max
Avg bet$118per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit86%portable
Net worth$106now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days+$55
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
finance 53% +$30
world 35% +$45
other 13% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-0.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 3 +13.7% +2.9% 100% 67% +2.9%
≤90d 6 +10.1% -0.4% 100% 33% +0.0%
all 6 +10.1% -0.4% 100% 33% +0.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -0.4% 33% +0.0%
10% -9.9% 0% -9.6%
15% -18.6% 0% -18.3%
20% -26.6% 0% -26.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 35% · top 2 60% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +10% too few recent
Fragile wins
67% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +10% · $-wt +10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$13 vs — no data
Profit factor
— no data
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

88d coverage
Net worth$106
Realized+$75
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)100%
Wins / losses6 / 0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)6 / 7
History coverage88d
Avg bet$118
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown0%
Kalshi-fit86%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 6 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 90¢ 91¢ $104 $106 +$2 (+2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? May 27 $155 +$19 +12%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 23? May 23 $129 +$26 +20%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in May? May 23 $118 +$10 +8%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in April? Apr 30 $110 +$7 +7%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in April? Apr 29 $107 +$4 +4%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $80 by end of March? Apr 01 $99 +$9 +9%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 90¢ $104 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? BUY No 89¢ $155 23d
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 23? SELL Yes 95¢ $155 25d
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 23? BUY Yes 79¢ $129 25d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in May? SELL No 98¢ $129 25d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in May? BUY No 90¢ $118 48d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in April? BUY Yes 94¢ $110 49d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in April? SELL No 100¢ $112 49d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in April? BUY No 95¢ $107 64d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $80 by end of March? BUY No 92¢ $99 88d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $106.09 · official $106.20 (match) · 13 history records