Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T00:06:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
43 0x43c5…82e8 other 182 markets active 2h ago coverage 166d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$16 (-0%) realized −$16 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate13%24W / 158L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$54per market
Trades / day3.2pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit74%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 28% −$7
sports 25% −$5
politics 22% −$3
crypto 7% −$2
economics 6% −$1
culture 5% $0
world 4% +$2
finance 3% −$2
tech 1% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -0.5% -10.0% 0% 0% -10.0%
≤30d 3 -0.4% -9.9% 0% 0% -9.9%
≤90d 53 -0.4% -9.9% 6% 0% -9.8%
all 182 -0.1% -9.6% 13% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.6% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 36% · top 2 55% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×1.27 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.29 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

166d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$16
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)13%
Wins / losses24 / 158
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)182 / 182
History coverage166d
Avg bet$54
Trades / day3.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit74%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 182 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 20 $45 $0 -0%
Will FURIA win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 08 $42 $0 -0%
Will Rahm Emanuel win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 26 $35 $0 -0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $140 in May? May 18 $36 $0 -0%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 08 $184 $0 -0%
Will J.B. Pritzker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 08 $42 $0 -0%
Will the Vegas Golden Knights win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Apr 08 $43 $0 +0%
Will UNRWA win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Apr 08 $246 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in April? Apr 07 $44 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $15,000 by December 31, 2026? Apr 07 $57 $0 -1%
Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 07 $91 $0 -0%
Will Victor Wembanyama win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? Apr 07 $164 $0 -0%
Will Bruno Retailleau win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 06 $88 $0 -0%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 06 $43 $0 -0%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 06 $230 $0 -0%
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? Apr 05 $362 $0 -0%
Will Ludvig Aberg win the 2026 Masters tournament? Apr 05 $45 $0 -0%
Will the Montreal Canadiens win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Apr 05 $192 −$1 -0%
Will Australia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 05 $152 −$1 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 in April? Apr 04 $38 $0 +0%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nom Apr 04 $85 $0 -0%
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 04 $144 $0 -0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 03 $225 −$1 -0%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 03 $40 $0 -0%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 03 $45 $0 +0%
Will Hideki Matsuyama win the 2026 Masters tournament? Apr 02 $35 $0 -0%
Will the Houston Texans win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 02 $97 $0 -0%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 02 $36 $0 -0%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 02 $38 $0 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee Apr 01 $42 $0 +0%
Will Brooks Koepka win the 2026 Masters tournament? Apr 01 $44 $0 -0%
Netanyahu out by April 30? Apr 01 $265 $0 +0%
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 01 $87 $0 -0%
Will Trump visit China by April 30? Mar 31 $40 $0 -0%
Will the Columbus Blue Jackets win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Mar 31 $76 $0 -0%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of March? Mar 30 $40 −$2 -4%
Will the New York Mets win the 2026 World Series? Mar 30 $89 $0 -0%
Will the Minnesota Wild win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Mar 29 $45 $0 +0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Mar 29 $241 $0 -0%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 mee Mar 29 $85 $0 -0%
Will the Denver Broncos win the 2027 NFL league championship? Mar 28 $41 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Mar 28 $75 $0 -0%
Will Matt Fitzpatrick win the 2026 Masters tournament? Mar 28 $39 $0 -1%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the April 2026 m Mar 27 $43 $0 -0%
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Mar 27 $89 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in March? Mar 26 $38 $0 -0%
Will St. John's win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? Mar 26 $47 $0 +0%
Will Raphaël Glucksmann win the 2027 French presidential election? Mar 26 $37 $0 +0%
Will Ukraine win Eurovision 2026? Mar 25 $39 $0 -0%
Will Justin Rose win the 2026 Masters tournament? Mar 25 $95 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL Yes 94¢ $45 1h
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes 95¢ $45 6h
Will FURIA win IEM Cologne Major 2026? SELL No 95¢ $42 12d
Will FURIA win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY No 95¢ $42 13d
Will Rahm Emanuel win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 98¢ $34 25d
Will Rahm Emanuel win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 98¢ $35 25d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $140 in May? SELL No 96¢ $35 33d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $140 in May? BUY No 96¢ $36 33d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 97¢ $34 73d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 97¢ $34 73d
Will J.B. Pritzker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 98¢ $42 73d
Will J.B. Pritzker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 98¢ $42 73d
Will the Vegas Golden Knights win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? SELL No 94¢ $6 73d
Will UNRWA win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 97¢ $38 73d
Will the Vegas Golden Knights win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? BUY No 94¢ $6 73d
Will UNRWA win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 97¢ $38 74d
Will the Vegas Golden Knights win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? SELL No 95¢ $37 74d
Will the Vegas Golden Knights win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? BUY No 94¢ $37 74d
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in April? SELL No 95¢ $43 74d
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in April? BUY No 95¢ $44 74d
Will Bitcoin dip to $15,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $39 74d
Will Bitcoin dip to $15,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $39 74d
Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 98¢ $46 74d
Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 98¢ $46 75d
Will Victor Wembanyama win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? SELL No 95¢ $46 75d
Will Victor Wembanyama win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? BUY No 95¢ $46 75d
Will Bruno Retailleau win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 97¢ $34 75d
Will Bruno Retailleau win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 97¢ $34 75d
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 98¢ $43 75d
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 98¢ $43 75d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 650 history records