trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? | Yes | 80¢ | 81¢ | $159 | $161 | +$2 (+1%) |
| Silver (SI) Up or Down on January 26? | Down | 30¢ | 0¢ | $1,203 | $0 | −$1,203 (-100%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of March 2026? | Mar 04 | $52 | −$1 | -2% |
| Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 46-47°F on February | Mar 01 | $58 | $0 | +1% |
| Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 32-33°F on Fe | Feb 07 | $2,499 | +$2,601 | +104% |
| Silver (SI) Up or Down on January 26? | Jan 26 | $1,203 | −$1,203 | -100% |
| NVIDIA (NVDA) Up or Down on January 22? | Jan 23 | $4,080 | +$1,920 | +47% |
| Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 11, 2026? | Jan 21 | $3,000 | −$1,319 | -44% |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on December 31? | Jan 03 | $100 | $0 | +0% |
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | no closed markets | |||||
| ≤30d | no closed markets | |||||
| ≤90d | no closed markets | |||||
| all | 7 | +0.9% | -8.7% | 57% | 29% | +6.9% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -8.7% | 29% | +6.9% |
| 10% | -17.4% | 29% | -3.3% |
| 15% | -25.4% | 29% | -12.6% |
| 20% | -32.7% | 14% | -21.2% |