Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T22:42:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
43 0x43c6…4870 sports 75 markets active 1h ago coverage 154d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$259 (-2%) realized −$259 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate69%52W / 23L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$181per market
Trades / day1.3pace
Fees−$24est.
Kalshi-fit88%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$5
7 days−$162
14 days−$162
30 days−$162
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 93% −$187
crypto 5% −$121
other 2% +$59
politics 0% −$7
world 0% −$5
economics 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-13.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 31 -1.2% -10.6% 61% 52% -13.7%
≤30d 31 -1.2% -10.6% 61% 52% -13.7%
≤90d 31 -1.2% -10.6% 61% 52% -13.7%
all 75 -4.2% -13.4% 69% 36% -11.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.4% 36% -11.3%
10% -21.6% 24% -19.8%
15% -29.2% 17% -27.5%
20% -36.2% 13% -34.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 24% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
48% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -7% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$24 vs −$65 · ×0.37 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.83 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

154d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$259
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)69%
Wins / losses52 / 23
Est. fees paid−$24
Open positions0
Markets (closed)75 / 75
History coverage154d
Avg bet$181
Trades / day1.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 75 Trades
no open positions (5 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $101 +$30 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 19 $56 −$30 -53%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $10 $0 +2%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $10 +$3 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 19 $4 +$2 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 17 $205 −$200 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 17 $177 +$27 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 17 $123 +$56 +45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 17 $97 +$29 +30%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $61 +$35 +57%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $40 +$21 +52%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $27 +$14 +50%
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $10 −$1 -7%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $10 −$1 -12%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $10 −$2 -15%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 4.5 Jun 16 $90 −$89 -99%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $51 +$33 +64%
France vs. Senegal: France O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $491 −$490 -100%
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $51 −$21 -42%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 5.5 Jun 16 $501 +$42 +8%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 4.5 Jun 16 $15 −$11 -73%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $403 +$99 +24%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $10 $0 +1%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $51 +$10 +19%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $152 +$31 +20%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $50 −$17 -34%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $10 −$8 -82%
UFC Freedom 250: Aiemann Zahabi vs. Sean O'Malley (Bantamweight, Main Jun 15 $15 −$15 -98%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $432 +$57 +13%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $51 +$41 +81%
Will Jalen Brunson win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? Jun 14 $199 +$194 +97%
Sabres vs. Lightning Feb 04 $300 −$300 -100%
Capitals vs. Flyers Feb 04 $345 +$63 +18%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs MOUZ - Map 2 Winner Feb 03 $300 +$45 +15%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Aurora Gaming - Map 2 Winner Feb 03 $300 $0 +0%
Maple Leafs vs. Flames Feb 03 $375 +$28 +8%
Red Wings vs. Avalanche Feb 03 $330 +$45 +14%
Jets vs. Stars Feb 03 $311 +$20 +6%
Blues vs. Predators Feb 03 $277 +$34 +12%
Islanders vs. Capitals Feb 03 $277 $0 +0%
Bruins vs. Lightning Feb 02 $361 −$262 -73%
Kings vs. Hurricanes Feb 02 $306 +$9 +3%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Astralis - Map 2 Winner Feb 01 $300 +$6 +2%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit - Map 2 Winner Feb 01 $306 $0 +0%
Kraken vs. Golden Knights Feb 01 $136 +$5 +3%
Stars vs. Utah Feb 01 $507 +$13 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 27, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Feb 01 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 26, 2026? Feb 01 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Powell say "Good afternoon" during January press conference? Feb 01 $1 −$1 -100%
Blue Jackets vs. Blues Feb 01 $492 +$15 +3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? SELL No 100¢ $85 43m
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 59¢ $51 1h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 39¢ $47 1h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 41¢ $51 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET BUY Down 89¢ $5 45h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET BUY Down 89¢ $25 45h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET SELL Down 86¢ $26 45h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET BUY Down 82¢ $25 45h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 18¢ $10 45h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 12¢ $13 45h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $6 45h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET BUY Down 69¢ $4 45h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET BUY Up 69¢ $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET BUY Up 67¢ $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET BUY Up 67¢ $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET BUY Up 64¢ $26 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET BUY Up 65¢ $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET BUY Up 64¢ $26 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET BUY Up 63¢ $26 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET BUY Up 64¢ $26 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET BUY Up 61¢ $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET BUY Up 61¢ $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET BUY Up 63¢ $26 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET BUY Up 60¢ $26 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET BUY Up 59¢ $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET BUY Up 61¢ $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET BUY Up 61¢ $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET BUY Up 61¢ $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET SELL Down 98¢ $204 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET BUY Down 87¢ $5 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 218 history records