Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T16:32:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
43 0x43c6…e2c5 crypto 178 markets active 1d ago coverage 212d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ Wins small, loses big
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! loses its big bets
Total PnL −$6,172 (-11%) realized −$6,172 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR24%break-even
Win rate65%116W / 62L
Whale WR16%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$308per market
Trades / day2.2pace
Kalshi-fit90%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$16
7 days−$5
14 days+$24
30 days+$53
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 55% −$577
other 17% −$5,518
tech 16% +$101
crypto 7% −$243
politics 3% +$24
world 2% +$15
culture 0% −$97
finance 0% +$9
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +24%
net ROI/market (all)-14.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 96 -1.1% -10.5% 74% 43% -9.6%
≤30d 104 -0.9% -10.3% 75% 39% -9.1%
≤90d 105 -1.2% -10.6% 74% 39% -11.5%
all 178 -5.9% -14.9% 65% 24% -19.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.9% 24% -19.9%
10% -23.0% 10% -27.6%
15% -30.5% 6% -34.6%
20% -37.3% 3% -41.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 18% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
61% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 16% (≥$500) wins small, loses big bets
Persistence
early -9% → late -3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$114 · ×0.06 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.11 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

212d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$6,172
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)65%
Wins / losses116 / 62
Whale WR (big bets)16%
Open positions0
Markets (closed)178 / 178
History coverage212d
Avg bet$308
Trades / day2.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit90%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 178 Trades
no open positions (17 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 17 $21 −$20 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 17 $10 +$4 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 16 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 16 $31 −$18 -58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 16 $20 +$5 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 16 $20 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 16 $61 +$6 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 16 $10 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 16 $10 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 16 $10 +$2 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 16 $20 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 16 $20 +$10 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 16 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 16 $10 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 16 $61 +$7 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 16 $20 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 16 $31 −$3 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 16 $20 +$4 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 16 $61 −$5 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 16 $21 +$24 +116%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 15 $10 +$3 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 15 $20 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 15 $10 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 15 $20 +$4 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 15 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 15 $10 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 15 $10 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 15 $21 +$6 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 15 $43 −$13 -30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 15 $10 +$1 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 15 $20 +$3 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 15 $10 +$2 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 15 $10 +$4 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 15 $30 +$6 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 15 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 15 $30 −$9 -28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 15 $40 −$10 -25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 15 $41 +$43 +105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 14 $38 −$8 -21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 14 $19 +$4 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 14 $31 −$5 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 13 $41 +$2 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 13 $10 +$2 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 13 $62 −$14 -23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 13 $20 +$3 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 13 $63 −$37 -60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 13 $21 −$2 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 13 $40 +$2 +6%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET BUY Up 57¢ $10 30h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET BUY Up 58¢ $10 30h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET BUY Up 71¢ $10 31h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET BUY Up 11¢ $11 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET BUY Down 61¢ $10 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $10 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET BUY Up 77¢ $10 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET BUY Up 78¢ $10 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET BUY Up 81¢ $10 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET BUY Up 100¢ $20 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $10 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET BUY Up 80¢ $20 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET BUY Up 63¢ $21 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET BUY Down 86¢ $10 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $10 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $10 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET BUY Down 84¢ $10 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $10 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $10 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET BUY Down 66¢ $20 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET BUY Down 91¢ $10 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET BUY Down 90¢ $10 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $10 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET BUY Up 94¢ $10 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET BUY Down 85¢ $20 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET BUY Down 70¢ $20 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET BUY Down 63¢ $10 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET BUY Up 63¢ $10 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $10 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET BUY Down 89¢ $10 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 680 history records