Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T16:39:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

43
0x43cb…84df
weather · 606 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$26,987 -31%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$17,927 · open −$8,546
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP weather specialist⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$61,575
Realized−$17,927
Unrealized−$8,546
Win rate (resolved)17%
Wins / losses58 / 278
Whale WR (big bets)12%
Est. fees paid−$276
Open positions213
Markets (closed)336 / 606
History coverage2d
Avg bet$145
Trades / day2163.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%
Chart Positions 213 History 336 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$17,927
7 days−$17,927
14 days−$17,927
30 days−$17,927
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Yes 58¢ 81¢ $11,558 $16,148 +$4,590 (+40%)
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No 50¢ 77¢ $10,000 $15,360 +$5,360 (+54%)
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 50¢ 23¢ $10,000 $4,640 −$5,360 (-54%)
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Yes 71¢ 100¢ $3,170 $4,450 +$1,280 (+40%)
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Yes 39¢ 19¢ $7,742 $3,805 −$3,936 (-51%)
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3T? No 96¢ 99¢ $2,961 $3,062 +$101 (+3%)
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.5T and $3.0T at market close on IPO day? No 89¢ 95¢ $2,455 $2,633 +$178 (+7%)
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.0T and $1.5T at market close on IPO day? No 97¢ 97¢ $1,554 $1,552 −$2 (-0%)
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1T? Yes 100¢ 100¢ $1,345 $1,346 +$1 (+0%)
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.5T and $2.0T at market close on IPO day? No 66¢ 81¢ $1,061 $1,293 +$232 (+22%)
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.8T? Yes 89¢ 94¢ $1,087 $1,150 +$63 (+6%)
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.5T at market close on IPO day? No 41¢ 30¢ $1,159 $852 −$307 (-26%)
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? Yes 69¢ 72¢ $694 $728 +$34 (+5%)
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.8T and $2.0T at market close on IPO day? No 84¢ 81¢ $582 $560 −$22 (-4%)
Will White House post 180-199 posts from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Yes 74¢ 100¢ $267 $360 +$92 (+35%)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 26°C or higher on June 12? Yes 21¢ 100¢ $55 $266 +$211 (+383%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on June 12? Yes 76¢ 94¢ $196 $243 +$47 (+24%)
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 20°C on June 12? Yes 58¢ 100¢ $130 $225 +$95 (+73%)
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.2T and $1.4T at market close on IPO day? No 99¢ 99¢ $198 $198 −$0 (-0%)
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.4T and $1.6T at market close on IPO day? No 99¢ 97¢ $197 $194 −$3 (-2%)
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 18°C on June 12? Yes 52¢ 100¢ $97 $186 +$89 (+91%)
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 27°C on June 12? Yes 48¢ 100¢ $83 $171 +$88 (+106%)
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 29°C on June 12? Yes 97¢ 100¢ $165 $170 +$5 (+3%)
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.5T at market close on IPO day? Yes 54¢ 70¢ $121 $157 +$37 (+31%)
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 12? Yes 65¢ 100¢ $73 $112 +$39 (+53%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 21°C on March 28? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 20°C or higher on March 30? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 7°C on March 7? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 82-83°F on March 30? Jun 12 $2 −$5 -216%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 12°C on April 3? Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 25°C on March 30? Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 29°C on March 13? Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 84-85°F on April 4? Jun 12 $7 −$7 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 31°C or higher on June 11? Jun 12 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 26°C on April 4? Jun 12 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 9°C on March 28? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 34°C on April 27? Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 68-69°F on March 17? Jun 12 $104 −$104 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 35°C or higher on March 2 Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 15°C on April 1? Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 12°C on March 30? Jun 12 $59 −$59 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 48-49°F on Ma Jun 12 $8 −$8 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 7°C or higher on March 6? Jun 12 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 68-69°F on March 12? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 33°C on April 30? Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from December 23 to December 30, 20 Jun 12 $166 −$166 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 33°C on April 7? Jun 12 $18 −$18 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 17°C on April 6? Jun 12 $50 −$50 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 32°C on April 7? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 74-75°F on April 8? Jun 12 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be 76°F or higher on April 5? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 34°C on April 5? Jun 12 $99 −$99 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from December 9 to December 16, 202 Jun 12 $167 −$167 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 23°C on April 1? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 90-91°F on March 15? Jun 12 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 14°C or below on March 25? Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 21°C on April 3? Jun 12 $36 −$36 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 25°C or higher on April 1? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 440-459 tweets from December 9 to December 16, 202 Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on April 7? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 23°C on March 29? Jun 12 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 86-87°F on March 9? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 580+ tweets from March 17 to March 24, 2026? Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 16°C on March 19? Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 540-559 tweets from December 26 to January 2, 2026 Jun 12 $475 −$523 -110%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 14°C on March 14? Jun 12 $101 −$101 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 5°C on March 29? Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 15°C on March 26? Jun 12 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 20°C on April 8? Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 22°C on March 22? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 15°C on March 18? Jun 12 $6 −$6 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 19°C on March 21? Jun 12 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 6°C on March 13? Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 9°C on March 20? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Donald Trump post 180-199 Truth Social posts from March 24 to Mar Jun 12 $12 −$12 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
politics 46% −$5,355
sports 22% −$3,643
tech 20% +$16
weather 7% +$2,365
other 6% +$402
culture 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 12? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 2m
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 90-91°F on June 12? BUY Yes 6¢ $0 3m
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 12? BUY Yes 9¢ $0 5m
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 38°C on June 12? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 5m
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 39°C on June 12? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 5m
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 12? BUY Yes 86¢ $3 5m
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C on June 12? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 5m
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 40°C or higher on June 12? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 5m
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 12? BUY Yes 86¢ $2 5m
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 37°C on June 12? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 5m
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 12? BUY Yes 3¢ $0 5m
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 12? BUY Yes 9¢ $6 5m
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 12? BUY Yes 3¢ $3 5m
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 12? BUY Yes 9¢ $0 5m
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 12? BUY Yes 18¢ $5 5m
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 12? BUY Yes 19¢ $1 5m
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 12? BUY Yes 9¢ $3 5m
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 28°C on June 12? BUY Yes 5¢ $1 14m
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 32°C or higher on June 12? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 14m
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 30°C on June 12? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 14m
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 29°C on June 12? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 14m
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 31°C on June 12? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 14m
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 26°C on June 12? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 14m
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 12? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 15m
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 12? BUY Yes 35¢ $2 15m
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 37°C on June 12? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 15m
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 38°C on June 12? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 15m
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C on June 12? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 15m
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 40°C or higher on June 12? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 15m
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 39°C on June 12? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 15m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +16%
net ROI/market (all)-67.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 336 -64.2% -67.6% 17% 16% -76.1%
≤30d 336 -64.2% -67.6% 17% 16% -76.1%
≤90d 336 -64.2% -67.6% 17% 16% -76.1%
all 336 -64.2% -67.6% 17% 16% -76.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover2163.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -67.6% 16% -76.1%
10% ← realistic here -70.7% 15% -78.4%
15% -73.6% 13% -80.5%
20% -76.2% 10% -82.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $61,575.13 · official $61,687.05 (match) · 3500 history records