Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T02:23:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
43 0x43cd…eebd world 39 markets active 2h ago coverage 312d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$2 (-0%) realized −$1 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate32%12W / 26L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$26per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit77%portable
Net worth$28now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days−$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 31% −$2
politics 27% $0
other 25% −$1
crypto 12% +$1
sports 2% $0
tech 2% $0
finance 1% $0
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-10.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +0.4% -9.2% 33% 0% -9.3%
≤30d 9 -3.4% -12.6% 22% 0% -10.7%
≤90d 12 -2.5% -11.8% 33% 0% -10.2%
all 38 -0.7% -10.2% 32% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.2% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.8% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.6% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.8% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 28% · top 2 46% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late -2% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.57 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.57 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

312d coverage
Net worth$28
Realized−$1
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)32%
Wins / losses12 / 26
Open positions1
Markets (closed)38 / 39
History coverage312d
Avg bet$26
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit77%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 38 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Yes 51¢ 50¢ $29 $28 −$1 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 18 $14 $0 +0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Jun 18 $10 $0 +1%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 17 $31 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 27 $59 $0 -0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 25 $2 $0 -12%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 24 $9 $0 -5%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 23 $30 $0 -0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 21 $13 −$2 -14%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? May 20 $31 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 19 $30 $0 +1%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 19 $68 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? May 18 $31 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Antoine Massey in 2025? Aug 15 $9 $0 +0%
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Aug 15 $47 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Rams win Super Bowl 2026? Aug 14 $50 $0 -0%
Will the Seattle Seahawks win Super Bowl 2026? Aug 14 $5 $0 +0%
Will Trump deport 500,000-750,000- people? Aug 14 $6 $0 -0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Aug 14 $54 $0 +0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Aug 14 $55 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $2400 in August? Aug 14 $5 $0 -0%
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decemb Aug 13 $17 $0 +0%
Will Trump meet with Putin by August 15? Aug 13 $40 +$1 +1%
Will the Milwaukee Brewers win the 2025 World Series? Aug 13 $42 $0 +0%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the first leader out in 2025? Aug 13 $16 $0 -0%
Will JD Vance say "Bitcoin" or "Crypto" during his remarks to US troop Aug 13 $14 $0 +1%
Will the price of Ethereum be less than $4000 on August 11 at 5PM ET? Aug 13 $10 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $2800 in August? Aug 13 $44 $0 +0%
Xi Jinping out before October? Aug 12 $5 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Clippers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Aug 12 $0 $0 +0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Aug 12 $45 $0 +0%
Will Ahmed al-Sharaa be the first leader out in 2025? Aug 12 $5 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $155 August 4–10? Aug 12 $49 $0 +1%
Will Trump sell 10k-25k Gold Cards in 2025? Aug 11 $10 $0 -1%
Will Juventus win the 2025–26 Champions League? Aug 11 $10 $0 +0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Aug 11 $10 $0 +0%
Will Inter win the 2025–26 Champions League? Aug 10 $10 $0 +0%
Will 8+ Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Aug 10 $5 $0 +0%
Will Vitinha win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Aug 10 $53 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 51¢ $29 1h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL Yes 17¢ $4 7h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL Yes 17¢ $10 7h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY Yes 17¢ $3 9h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY Yes 17¢ $7 9h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY Yes 17¢ $4 9h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL No 88¢ $11 9h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY No 87¢ $10 11h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $31 29h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $31 29h
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? SELL No 78¢ $28 23d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? BUY No 80¢ $29 23d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? SELL Yes 3¢ $2 24d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 25d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 25d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? BUY Yes 3¢ $0 25d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? SELL Yes 11¢ $5 25d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? SELL Yes 11¢ $4 25d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? BUY Yes 11¢ $9 25d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 51¢ $30 25d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 52¢ $30 25d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? SELL No 97¢ $12 26d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? SELL No 97¢ $18 26d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? BUY No 97¢ $30 26d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? SELL No 94¢ $30 26d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? BUY No 93¢ $30 26d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL Yes 31¢ $7 28d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL Yes 31¢ $4 28d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY Yes 36¢ $13 28d
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $32 29d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $28.00 · official $28.00 (match) · 109 history records