Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T04:38:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
43 0x43cd…cc1b sports 47 markets active 1h ago coverage 5d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$172 (+8%) realized +$158 · open +$14
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR59%break-even
Win rate65%30W / 16L
Drawdown87%max
Avg bet$45per market
Trades / day25.4pace
Fees−$17est.
Kalshi-fit79%portable
Net worth$64now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 5d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 63% +$146
other 32% +$40
crypto 4% +$67
world 0% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +59%
net ROI/market (all)-2.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 46 +7.9% -2.3% 65% 59% +0.8%
≤30d 46 +7.9% -2.3% 65% 59% +0.8%
≤90d 46 +7.9% -2.3% 65% 59% +0.8%
all 46 +7.9% -2.3% 65% 59% +0.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover25.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -2.3% 59% +0.8%
10% ← realistic here -11.7% 54% -8.8%
15% -20.2% 43% -17.6%
20% -28.0% 30% -25.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 19% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +11% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
10% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +8% · $-wt +11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +36% → late -20% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$27 vs −$35 · ×0.75 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.42 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

5d coverage
Net worth$64
Realized+$158
Unrealized+$14
Win rate (resolved)65%
Wins / losses30 / 16
Est. fees paid−$17
Open positions1
Markets (closed)46 / 47
History coverage5d
Avg bet$45
Trades / day25.4
Drawdown87%
Kalshi-fit79%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 46 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $50 $64 +$14 (+27%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Colombia vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score Jun 24 $55 +$5 +10%
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) Jun 24 $52 +$1 +2%
Colombia vs. DR Congo: O/U 1.5 Jun 24 $45 +$1 +2%
Spread: Croatia (-1.5) Jun 24 $90 +$70 +79%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: Uzbekistan O/U 0.5 Jun 23 $35 +$5 +15%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 3.5 Jun 23 $35 +$25 +70%
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) Jun 23 $22 −$22 -100%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $60 +$24 +39%
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 23 $30 +$30 +100%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $154 +$25 +16%
Exact Score: France 3 - 1 Iraq? Jun 22 $7 −$7 -100%
France vs. Iraq: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 22 $37 −$37 -100%
Spread: France (-2.5) Jun 22 $62 −$62 -100%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $147 +$62 +42%
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 2.5 Jun 22 $24 +$16 +65%
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 3.5 Jun 22 $29 +$11 +39%
Spread: Argentina (-2.5) Jun 22 $16 +$4 +25%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 22 $50 −$18 -36%
Bad Homburg Open: Clara Tauson vs Diana Shnaider Jun 22 $60 −$60 -100%
Mallorca Championships: Fabian Marozsan vs Alex Molcan Jun 22 $53 −$53 -100%
Exact Score: United States 1 - 1 Australia? Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
United States vs. Australia: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 22 $11 −$11 -100%
Spread: Japan (-1.5) Jun 22 $18 −$18 -100%
Exact Score: Belgium 3 - 0 IR Iran? Jun 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5 Jun 22 $38 −$38 -100%
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Taylor Fritz Jun 22 $44 −$44 -100%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo Jun 22 $19 −$19 -100%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 22 $58 −$58 -100%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $110 −$110 -100%
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Gabriel Diallo vs Terence Atmane Jun 22 $24 +$6 +26%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 3.5 Jun 21 $43 +$17 +41%
Washington Nationals vs. Tampa Bay Rays Jun 21 $32 +$28 +85%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof Jun 21 $51 +$25 +50%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 3.5 Jun 21 $40 +$20 +49%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 4.5 Jun 21 $40 +$10 +24%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Both Teams to Score Jun 21 $36 +$11 +31%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo Jun 20 $26 +$34 +133%
Germany leading at halftime? Jun 20 $80 +$80 +100%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $93 +$67 +72%
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) Jun 20 $74 +$66 +89%
Will Vitality win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 20 $19 +$11 +62%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla Jun 20 $26 +$38 +145%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 3.5 Jun 19 $20 +$5 +27%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $69 +$71 +104%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 19 $25 +$12 +48%
Grass Court Championships: Aryna Sabalenka vs Nikola Bartunkova Jun 19 $4 +$14 +348%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) SELL DR Congo 88¢ $39 46m
Colombia vs. DR Congo: O/U 1.5 SELL Under 77¢ $46 46m
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) SELL DR Congo 88¢ $10 46m
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) SELL DR Congo 88¢ $4 47m
Colombia vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score BUY No 91¢ $0 1h
Colombia vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score BUY No 91¢ $18 1h
Colombia vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score BUY No 91¢ $36 1h
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) BUY DR Congo 86¢ $52 1h
Colombia vs. DR Congo: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 75¢ $45 1h
Spread: Croatia (-1.5) BUY Panama 56¢ $84 7h
Spread: Croatia (-1.5) BUY Panama 56¢ $6 9h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: Uzbekistan O/U 0.5 BUY Under 87¢ $17 9h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: Uzbekistan O/U 0.5 BUY Under 86¢ $17 10h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 59¢ $35 11h
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) BUY Uzbekistan 36¢ $2 11h
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) BUY Uzbekistan 36¢ $20 11h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-22? SELL No 100¢ $3 23h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-22? SELL No 100¢ $77 23h
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 50¢ $13 24h
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 50¢ $11 24h
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 50¢ $6 24h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-22? BUY No 65¢ $13 24h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? SELL No 40¢ $24 25h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-22? BUY No 88¢ $88 25h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-22? BUY No 88¢ $53 25h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 65¢ $7 25h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 65¢ $10 25h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 65¢ $2 25h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 66¢ $8 25h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 66¢ $5 25h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $63.55 · official $63.55 (match) · 161 history records