Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T19:07:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
43 0x43cf…88fa world 243 markets active 9h ago coverage 205d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable ⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 204d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)! high turnover
Total PnL −$19,040 (-6%) realized −$18,295 · open −$745
Gross ROI / mkt +25% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -0% what you keep after slip
Net edge-0%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate59%132W / 93L
Whale WR70%big bets
Drawdown93%max
Avg bet$1,231per market
Trades / day15.9pace
Fees−$8est.
Kalshi-fit73%portable
Net worth$8,171now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 205d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
world 39% +$1,642
other 34% +$3,641
politics 24% −$820
culture 2% −$183
tech 0% +$40
crypto 0% −$113
sports 0% +$72
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)+12.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 -14.6% -22.7% 36% 36% -16.7%
≤30d 35 +10.1% -0.4% 46% 31% -9.7%
≤90d 75 +10.6% +0.0% 56% 36% -6.2%
all 225 +24.6% +12.8% 59% 39% -7.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover15.9 tr/day
realistic slip~11%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +12.8% 39% -7.6%
10% ← realistic here +2.0% 25% -16.4%
15% -7.9% 18% -24.5%
20% -16.9% 14% -31.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 15% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
33% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +25% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 70% (≥$1,420) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +42% → late +8% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
9.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$216 vs −$256 · ×0.84 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.21 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

205d coverage
Net worth$8,171
Realized−$18,295
Unrealized−$745
Win rate (resolved)59%
Wins / losses132 / 93
Whale WR (big bets)70%
Est. fees paid−$8
Open positions22
Markets (closed)225 / 243
History coverage205d ⚠
Avg bet$1,231
Trades / day15.9
Drawdown93%
Kalshi-fit73%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 22 History 225 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? No 94¢ 92¢ $4,700 $4,625 −$75 (-2%)
Will Kuwait join the Abraham Accords before 2027? No 81¢ 86¢ $1,306 $1,401 +$95 (+7%)
Will Hezbollah disarm by December 31? No 82¢ 86¢ $610 $636 +$26 (+4%)
Iran coup attempt by June 30? No 75¢ 100¢ $286 $381 +$95 (+33%)
Will Mohamed bin Zayed Al Nahyan attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony? No 75¢ 96¢ $229 $294 +$65 (+28%)
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $240 $230 −$10 (-4%)
UAE x Qatar sever diplomatic relations in 2026? No 78¢ 94¢ $122 $146 +$24 (+20%)
Iran successfully targets shipping by July 7? No $60 $80 +$20 (+33%)
Will Mishal Al-Ahmad Al-Jaber Al-Sabah attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony? No 61¢ 99¢ $46 $74 +$29 (+63%)
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by July 31, 2026? Yes $80 $73 −$7 (-9%)
Will Kuwait recognize Israel by December 31? No 79¢ 90¢ $40 $45 +$5 (+13%)
KRG declares independence from Iraq by December 31? No 76¢ 94¢ $27 $33 +$6 (+24%)
Will Jorge Rodríguez be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Yes $35 $28 −$8 (-21%)
Will USD be less than 1.5M Iranian rials on June 30? No 87¢ 100¢ $24 $27 +$3 (+14%)
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31? Yes 39¢ 30¢ $29 $22 −$7 (-24%)
Will Abiy Ahmed be the next Prime Minister of Ethiopia? Yes 75¢ 97¢ $15 $19 +$4 (+29%)
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by July 31? Yes 27¢ $69 $19 −$50 (-72%)
Israel and Syria normalize relations by June 30, 2026? No 77¢ 99¢ $10 $13 +$3 (+29%)
Israel x Hamas Ceasefire Phase II by June 30? Yes 57¢ $517 $10 −$506 (-98%)
Will Trump meet with Ahmed al-Sharaa in 2026? Yes 77¢ 84¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+10%)
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? Yes $80 $6 −$74 (-93%)
Will USD be less than 1.5M Iranian rials on June 30? Yes 19¢ $383 $3 −$380 (-99%)
Will the RSF capture Khartoum by June 30? No 80¢ 100¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+24%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 48 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Trump say "Scam" during the America Business Forum on November 5? Jun 27 $25 −$25 -100%
Will the Philippines win Miss Universe 2025? Jun 27 $26 −$26 -100%
Will Trump say "World Cup" during the America Business Forum on Novemb Jun 27 $53 −$53 -100%
Will Trump say "Biden" or "Obama" 5+ times during the America Business Jun 27 $2 −$2 -100%
Will USD be between 1.5M and 1.6M Iranian rials on June 30? Jun 27 $219 +$621 +284%
Will France win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 25 $1,380 +$220 +16%
Will Belgium win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 24 $2,071 −$571 -28%
Will USD fall to 1.5M Iranian rials by June 30? Jun 22 $2,394 −$1,510 -63%
Will Masoud Pezeshkian attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony? Jun 20 $1,522 +$370 +24%
Will Germany win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $2,200 −$200 -9%
Will Japan win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $1,740 +$260 +15%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar? Jun 20 $97 −$97 -100%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? Jun 19 $236 +$138 +58%
Will USD reach 1.8M Iranian rials by June 30? Jun 18 $224 +$1,948 +869%
Will Abbas Araghchi attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony? Jun 17 $1,320 −$626 -47%
Will Masoud Pezeshkian sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? Jun 17 $160 −$140 -87%
Will Donald Trump attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony? Jun 17 $160 +$140 +88%
Will Trump meet with Volodymyr Zelenskyy in June 2026? Jun 16 $86 +$37 +43%
Will USD be between 1.6M and 1.7M Iranian rials on June 30? Jun 16 $127 +$52 +40%
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 12 $1,535 +$110 +7%
Will USD reach 1.9M Iranian rials by June 30? Jun 12 $259 +$27 +10%
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $1,127 +$96 +8%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $680 +$78 +11%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? Jun 09 $260 −$50 -19%
Will Hamas agree to disarm by June 30? Jun 09 $1,339 −$308 -23%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 06 $900 −$73 -8%
Will USD fall to 1.5M Iranian rials by May 31? Jun 02 $682 −$169 -25%
Will Iran legalize gay marriage? Jun 01 $3,736 +$62 +2%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 3? Jun 01 $82 −$82 -100%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7? Jun 01 $1,910 −$423 -22%
Israel x Hezbollah diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $69 +$30 +43%
Anthropic vs OpenAI - higher valuation on June 30? May 30 $839 +$72 +8%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 30? May 29 $72 −$72 -100%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 29? May 29 $140 −$68 -49%
Israeli forces cross the Litani River again by May 31? May 29 $2,184 −$104 -5%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? May 28 $496 +$326 +66%
Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by May 31? May 28 $1,290 +$247 +19%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? May 28 $1,820 +$180 +10%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31? May 28 $2,340 $0 -0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 26 $1,562 +$27 +2%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 26? May 26 $180 −$120 -67%
Will Trump restart Project Freedom by May 31? May 26 $890 +$200 +22%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24? May 26 $125 −$125 -100%
Will Reza Pahlavi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 25 $1,739 +$19 +1%
Internet Access restored in Iran by September 30, 2026? May 25 $1,160 +$282 +24%
Internet Access restored in Iran by June 30, 2026? May 25 $1,490 −$446 -30%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 24 $2,555 +$318 +12%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? May 24 $560 +$20 +4%
Internet Access restored in Iran by May 31, 2026? May 24 $511 −$383 -75%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 24 $430 −$255 -59%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Iran successfully targets shipping by July 7? BUY No $1 8h
Iran successfully targets shipping by July 7? BUY No $2 8h
Iran successfully targets shipping by July 7? BUY No $1 8h
Iran successfully targets shipping by July 7? BUY No $2 8h
Iran successfully targets shipping by July 7? BUY No $55 8h
Will USD be between 1.5M and 1.6M Iranian rials on June 30? SELL Yes 18¢ $122 13h
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes $80 25h
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $240 38h
Will France win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 80¢ $426 47h
Will France win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 80¢ $1 2d
Will France win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 80¢ $2 2d
Will France win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 80¢ $40 2d
Will France win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 80¢ $10 2d
Will France win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 80¢ $6 2d
Will France win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 80¢ $97 2d
Will Hezbollah disarm by December 31? SELL No 88¢ $6 2d
Will France win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 80¢ $1 2d
Will France win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 80¢ $24 2d
Will France win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 80¢ $3 2d
Will France win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 80¢ $49 2d
Will France win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 80¢ $2 2d
Will France win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 80¢ $1 2d
Will USD be between 1.5M and 1.6M Iranian rials on June 30? BUY Yes 16¢ $30 2d
Will USD be between 1.5M and 1.6M Iranian rials on June 30? BUY Yes 16¢ $1 2d
Will USD be between 1.5M and 1.6M Iranian rials on June 30? BUY Yes 16¢ $2 2d
Will France win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 80¢ $100 2d
Will France win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 80¢ $10 2d
Will France win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 80¢ $22 2d
Will France win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 80¢ $16 2d
Will France win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 80¢ $40 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $8,170.87 · official $8,170.87 (match) · 3500 history records