Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T11:09:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
43 0x43cf…d143 other 51 markets active 2h ago coverage 60d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)
Total PnL +$2,623 (+5%) realized +$9,279 · open −$6,656
Gross ROI / mkt -28% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -37% what you keep after slip
Net edge-37%after slip
Net WR19%break-even
Win rate19%5W / 21L
Drawdown6%max
Avg bet$1,019per market
Trades / day2.5pace
Fees−$11est.
Kalshi-fit59%portable
Net worth$13,156now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days+$625
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 80% +$3,627
other 17% −$635
crypto 2% +$83
sports 1% −$318
finance 0% −$112
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +19%
net ROI/market (all)-34.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 18 -55.0% -59.3% 17% 17% -4.4%
≤90d 26 -27.8% -34.7% 19% 19% +17.1%
all 26 -27.8% -34.7% 19% 19% +17.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -34.7% 19% +17.1%
10% -40.9% 15% +5.9%
15% -46.6% 15% -4.4%
20% -51.9% 12% -13.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 84% · top 2 95% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +29% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -28% · $-wt +29% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +24% → late -80% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2,079 vs −$52 · ×39.98 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×9.52 per $1 lost it wins $9.52
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

60d coverage
Net worth$13,156
Realized+$9,279
Unrealized−$6,656
Win rate (resolved)19%
Wins / losses5 / 21
Est. fees paid−$11
Open positions25
Markets (closed)26 / 51
History coverage60d
Avg bet$1,019
Trades / day2.5
Drawdown6%
Kalshi-fit59%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 25 History 26 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Yes 30¢ 12¢ $10,189 $4,256 −$5,934 (-58%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 18¢ $976 $1,118 +$142 (+15%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $972 $1,055 +$83 (+9%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $680 $940 +$260 (+38%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 13¢ $976 $783 −$192 (-20%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $779 $753 −$26 (-3%)
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30? Yes 18¢ 14¢ $999 $750 −$249 (-25%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ $487 $617 +$130 (+27%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $486 $518 +$32 (+7%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $487 $381 −$106 (-22%)
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $486 $364 −$121 (-25%)
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $194 $227 +$32 (+17%)
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $194 $201 +$7 (+4%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $194 $178 −$16 (-8%)
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $194 $175 −$19 (-10%)
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $194 $158 −$36 (-19%)
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $194 $148 −$46 (-24%)
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $194 $146 −$49 (-25%)
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $194 $146 −$49 (-25%)
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $194 $115 −$79 (-41%)
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in June? Yes $96 $45 −$51 (-53%)
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $95 in June? Yes 12¢ $97 $36 −$60 (-62%)
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by June 30? Yes 11¢ $100 $28 −$72 (-72%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? No $230 $15 −$215 (-94%)
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? No $25 $4 −$21 (-84%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24? Jun 03 $110 −$15 -13%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 29 $10,000 +$1,067 +11%
ITF Takasaki: Yufei Ren vs Rina Saigo May 29 $12 −$12 -100%
ITF Takasaki: Sohyun Park vs Lizette Cabrera May 29 $13 −$13 -100%
Iran closes its airspace by May 21? May 29 $70 −$70 -100%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 25? May 29 $30 −$30 -100%
ITF Gimcheon: Taisei Ichikawa vs Yun Seong Chung May 29 $10 −$10 -100%
Iran closes its airspace by May 24? May 29 $100 −$69 -69%
Internationaux de Strasbourg: Diane Parry vs Emma Raducanu May 29 $11 −$11 -100%
ITF Takasaki: Mei Yamaguchi vs Sofya Lansere May 29 $10 −$10 -100%
Internationaux de Strasbourg: Shuai Zhang vs Cristina Bucsa May 29 $12 −$12 -100%
ITF Takasaki: Katy Dunne vs Raluca Georgiana Serban May 29 $10 −$10 -100%
Iran leadership change by May 31? May 29 $100 −$69 -69%
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31? May 29 $410 −$220 -54%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 23 $100 +$215 +215%
ITF Wuning: Alexandra Shubladze vs Maria Kalyakina May 21 $16 −$16 -100%
ITF Takasaki: Yuriko Lily Miyazaki vs Sara Saito May 19 $11 +$10 +90%
Game Handicap: KT (-1.5) vs HANJIN BRION (+1.5) May 19 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping? May 17 $50 +$335 +671%
Paris: Alina Charaeva vs Tamara Korpatsch May 14 $200 −$34 -17%
Lakers vs. Thunder May 06 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Iran strike Bahrain by April 30, 2026? May 04 $100 −$100 -100%
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$1.5B one day after launch? May 01 $120 −$120 -100%
Will MegaETH launch a token by April 30, 2026? Apr 28 $182 −$57 -31%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? Apr 23 $19,753 +$8,767 +44%
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 18, 2026? Apr 21 $14 −$14 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No $10 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No $20 13h
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? SELL No $47 40h
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? BUY No $100 40h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 14¢ $200 2d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 86¢ $198 2d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $95 in June? BUY Yes 12¢ $100 2d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in June? BUY Yes $100 2d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 87¢ $200 2d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $800 6d
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $200 6d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $500 6d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $200 6d
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $200 6d
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $200 6d
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $200 6d
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $200 6d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $200 6d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $300 6d
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $500 6d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $500 6d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $500 6d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $1,000 6d
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $200 6d
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $200 6d
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $200 6d
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $500 6d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $1,000 6d
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $500 6d
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $200 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $13,155.88 · official $13,163.24 (match) · 180 history records