Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T19:47:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
43 0x43d0…8dad crypto 1498 markets active 1h ago coverage 323d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$413 (+3%) realized +$436 · open −$23
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR48%break-even
Win rate48%717W / 775L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$10per market
Trades / day6.7pace
Fees−$8est.
Kalshi-fit91%portable
Net worth$258now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$77
7 days+$134
14 days+$146
30 days+$288
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 68% −$320
other 24% +$310
sports 8% +$266
world 0% −$15
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)-12.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 28 +7.0% -3.2% 57% 57% +13.9%
≤30d 86 +10.0% -0.5% 52% 52% +15.0%
≤90d 1071 -35.2% -41.4% 32% 32% -31.1%
all 1492 -2.8% -12.1% 48% 48% -7.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.1% 48% -7.9%
10% -20.5% 47% -16.8%
15% -28.2% 47% -24.8%
20% -35.2% 47% -32.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -24% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt +2% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +52% → late -57% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$10 vs −$8 · ×1.12 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.04 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

323d coverage
Net worth$258
Realized+$436
Unrealized−$23
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses717 / 775
Est. fees paid−$8
Open positions5
Markets (closed)1492 / 1498
History coverage323d
Avg bet$10
Trades / day6.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit91%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 1492 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup? Yes 64¢ 62¢ $150 $146 −$3 (-2%)
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Yes 70¢ 69¢ $56 $56 −$0 (-1%)
Will Spain reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Yes 31¢ 28¢ $34 $30 −$4 (-11%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 14¢ $21 $19 −$2 (-12%)
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $20 $8 −$12 (-62%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 146 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $52 +$48 +91%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $12 +$8 +72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Jun 19 $2 +$3 +166%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $25 +$15 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET Jun 19 $3 +$2 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET Jun 19 $23 +$17 +72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET Jun 19 $8 −$8 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Jun 19 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Jun 19 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Jun 19 $3 +$2 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Jun 19 $23 +$17 +74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 19 $26 +$14 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jun 19 $11 −$11 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 19 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jun 19 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10AM ET Jun 19 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 19 $3 −$3 -97%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $49 +$51 +105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 18 $9 +$9 +96%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner Jun 18 $9 −$9 -98%
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $44 +$46 +105%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $25 −$25 -99%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $32 +$18 +57%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $24 +$26 +105%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $9 +$11 +114%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $18 +$12 +70%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $23 −$23 -99%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $45 −$44 -98%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $20 +$21 +105%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $23 −$23 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 12 $10 +$10 +104%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 12 $21 −$21 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Jun 12 $5 −$4 -74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 12 $5 +$6 +110%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jun 12 $2 +$3 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Jun 12 $3 +$2 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Jun 12 $3 +$2 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jun 11 $6 +$4 +78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jun 11 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 11 $10 +$10 +99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jun 11 $6 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 11 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Jun 11 $2 +$3 +105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Jun 10 $11 +$9 +78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Jun 10 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Jun 10 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET Jun 10 $10 +$9 +91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET Jun 10 $4 −$4 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Jun 10 $3 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 10 $12 +$8 +72%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 70¢ $57 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 38¢ $19 23h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 66¢ $33 24h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 58¢ $12 27h
Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup? BUY Yes 62¢ $50 33h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET BUY Down 36¢ $2 46h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET BUY Up 56¢ $3 47h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $40 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET BUY Up 56¢ $23 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET BUY Up 40¢ $8 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET BUY Up 42¢ $2 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $3 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $40 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET BUY Up 57¢ $23 2d
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 61¢ $25 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $11 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET BUY Up 63¢ $26 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $19 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $3 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $8 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $3 2d
Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup? BUY Yes 65¢ $15 2d
Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup? BUY Yes 65¢ $2 2d
Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup? BUY Yes 65¢ $19 2d
Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup? BUY Yes 65¢ $66 2d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 48¢ $49 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $9 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $258.10 · official $257.32 (match) · 3295 history records