Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T14:26:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
43 0x43d0…9617 crypto 44 markets active 1h ago coverage 640d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$47 (-12%) realized −$47 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -15% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate39%17W / 27L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$9per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit82%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$3
7 days−$12
14 days−$12
30 days−$23
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 41% +$12
politics 27% −$21
other 20% −$41
weather 10% −$3
sports 1% +$4
tech 1% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-23.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -15.4% -23.4% 0% 0% -23.4%
≤30d 4 -14.7% -22.8% 0% 0% -23.5%
≤90d 7 +17.6% +6.4% 29% 29% -17.8%
all 44 -15.3% -23.3% 39% 36% -20.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -23.3% 36% -20.9%
10% -30.7% 36% -28.5%
15% -37.4% 36% -35.4%
20% -43.5% 36% -41.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 32% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -9% too few recent
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -15% · $-wt -13% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -37% → late +7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$5 · ×1.03 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.65 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

640d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$47
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses17 / 27
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)44 / 44
History coverage640d
Avg bet$9
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit82%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 44 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 30°C on June 20? Jun 18 $40 −$3 -7%
Will the JNE certify results of the second round of the 2026 Peruvian Jun 13 $40 −$9 -24%
Will Loranne Ausley win the Tallahassee mayoral election? Jun 03 $40 −$10 -25%
Will Phantom launch a token by December 31, 2027? May 24 $30 −$1 -3%
Will the next Prime Minister of Romania be an Independent or a Technoc May 12 $30 −$1 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 20, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET Apr 18 $3 +$3 +93%
Spurs vs. Nuggets Apr 18 $5 +$4 +93%
Solana Up or Down - March 10, 11PM ET Mar 13 $4 +$3 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 26, 6AM ET Feb 28 $3 +$3 +96%
Solana Up or Down - February 20, 3AM ET Feb 21 $9 +$8 +96%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 14, 7AM ET Feb 18 $5 +$5 +96%
Solana Up or Down - February 5, 8AM ET Feb 06 $4 +$4 +96%
XRP Up or Down - January 29, 5AM ET Feb 02 $4 −$4 -100%
Solana Up or Down - January 20, 10AM ET Jan 22 $3 +$3 +96%
XRP Up or Down - January 7, 6PM ET Jan 11 $6 −$6 -100%
XRP all time high by December 31? Jan 04 $3 −$3 -100%
Solana all time high before 2026? Jan 04 $3 +$2 +52%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 3, 9AM ET Jan 04 $7 +$7 +96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 26, 12AM ET Dec 27 $4 −$4 -100%
OpenAI social app in 2025? Dec 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 19, 3PM ET Dec 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Solana Up or Down - November 16, 12AM ET Dec 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Solana Up or Down - December 14, 10AM ET Dec 15 $4 +$4 +96%
XRP Up or Down - December 10, 3PM ET Dec 11 $2 +$2 +96%
Abstract token launch by January 31? Feb 28 $5 −$5 -100%
Solana above $215 on January 10? Feb 28 $7 −$7 -100%
Pudgy Penguins airdrop in 2024? Jan 05 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum all time high in 2024? Jan 05 $2 −$2 -100%
Berachain airdrop in 2024? Jan 05 $1 −$1 -100%
Ripple above $2.39 on December 13? Jan 05 $9 −$9 -100%
Will Berachain launch in 2024? Jan 05 $11 +$1 +8%
Ripple above $1.46 on November 29? Dec 11 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin above $100,000 on November 29? Dec 11 $15 +$9 +64%
Solana above $170 on November 8? Nov 23 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin hits $80k before election? Nov 23 $1 −$1 -100%
$100m in $WLFI sold before election? Nov 23 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin above $70,000 on November 8? Nov 23 $12 +$12 +96%
Tesla sells bitcoin in October? Nov 02 $1 −$1 -100%
Solana above $155 on October 25? Nov 02 $6 −$6 -100%
Ethereum above $2,600 on October 25? Nov 02 $7 +$19 +270%
Bitcoin above $62,000 on October 18? Oct 20 $9 −$9 -100%
Solana above $145 on October 18? Oct 20 $9 +$5 +54%
Solana above $155 on October 4? Oct 06 $15 −$15 -100%
Aleo airdrop by September 30? Oct 01 $16 −$16 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 30°C on June 20? SELL No 51¢ $37 1h
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 30°C on June 20? BUY No 54¢ $40 1h
Will the JNE certify results of the second round of the 2026 Peruvian SELL Yes 45¢ $8 5d
Will the JNE certify results of the second round of the 2026 Peruvian SELL Yes 45¢ $23 5d
Will the JNE certify results of the second round of the 2026 Peruvian BUY Yes 59¢ $40 5d
Will Loranne Ausley win the Tallahassee mayoral election? SELL No 58¢ $7 15d
Will Loranne Ausley win the Tallahassee mayoral election? SELL No 58¢ $15 15d
Will Loranne Ausley win the Tallahassee mayoral election? SELL No 58¢ $8 15d
Will Loranne Ausley win the Tallahassee mayoral election? BUY No 77¢ $40 15d
Will Phantom launch a token by December 31, 2027? SELL No 74¢ $7 25d
Will Phantom launch a token by December 31, 2027? SELL No 75¢ $22 25d
Will Phantom launch a token by December 31, 2027? BUY No 76¢ $30 25d
Will the next Prime Minister of Romania be an Independent or a Technoc SELL No 59¢ $29 37d
Will the next Prime Minister of Romania be an Independent or a Technoc BUY No 61¢ $30 37d
Spurs vs. Nuggets BUY Nuggets 51¢ $5 77d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 20, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $3 91d
Solana Up or Down - March 10, 11PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $4 99d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 26, 6AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $3 113d
Solana Up or Down - February 20, 3AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $9 119d
Ethereum Up or Down - February 14, 7AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $5 125d
Solana Up or Down - February 5, 8AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $4 134d
XRP Up or Down - January 29, 5AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $4 141d
Solana Up or Down - January 20, 10AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $3 150d
XRP Up or Down - January 7, 6PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $6 162d
Ethereum Up or Down - January 3, 9AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $7 167d
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 26, 12AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $4 175d
Solana Up or Down - December 14, 10AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $4 187d
XRP Up or Down - December 10, 3PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $2 191d
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 19, 3PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $3 212d
Solana Up or Down - November 16, 12AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $4 216d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 110 history records