Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T19:03:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
43 0x43d0…ef3e crypto 348 markets active 0h ago coverage 207d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$3,535 (-4%) realized −$3,601 · open +$66
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR34%break-even
Win rate70%241W / 105L
Whale WR89%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$250per market
Trades / day3.0pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$466now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$124
7 days+$223
14 days−$40
30 days−$276
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 98% −$3,902
other 2% −$466
sports 0% −$46
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)-8.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 22 +1.3% -8.4% 86% 41% -2.2%
≤30d 57 +0.4% -9.2% 79% 51% -13.4%
≤90d 338 +3.6% -6.2% 71% 35% -13.9%
all 346 +1.7% -8.0% 70% 34% -14.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.0% 34% -14.2%
10% -16.8% 23% -22.4%
15% -24.8% 18% -29.9%
20% -32.2% 12% -36.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
49% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 89% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +10% → late -7% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$32 vs −$116 · ×0.28 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.63 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

207d coverage
Net worth$466
Realized−$3,601
Unrealized+$66
Win rate (resolved)70%
Wins / losses241 / 105
Whale WR (big bets)89%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions2
Markets (closed)346 / 348
History coverage207d
Avg bet$250
Trades / day3.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 346 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 19¢ 24¢ $200 $250 +$50 (+25%)
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? Yes 90¢ 98¢ $200 $216 +$16 (+8%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 43 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 29 $202 +$25 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 29 $204 +$58 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 29 $204 +$74 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 29 $403 +$51 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 29 $102 +$20 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 29 $114 −$114 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 29 $103 −$103 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 29 $100 +$5 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 29 $100 +$3 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 29 $100 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 29 $101 +$9 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 29 $100 +$3 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 29 $103 +$68 +66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 29 $101 +$17 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 29 $100 +$7 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 27 $87 +$5 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 27 $100 +$2 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 27 $100 +$7 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 25 $100 +$6 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 24 $103 +$59 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 24 $10 −$10 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 23 $102 +$30 +30%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $414 −$410 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 17 $105 +$87 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 17 $101 −$100 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 17 $106 −$106 -100%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $102 +$123 +121%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 16 $102 +$30 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 16 $101 +$10 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 16 $101 +$25 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 16 $102 +$12 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 16 $204 +$13 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 16 $101 +$12 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 16 $101 +$5 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 16 $101 +$13 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 16 $101 +$8 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 16 $102 +$15 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 15 $102 −$102 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 15 $101 +$16 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 15 $100 +$6 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 15 $102 +$38 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 15 $101 +$17 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 15 $103 −$100 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 15 $101 +$14 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 15 $101 +$22 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 14 $107 −$107 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 14 $10 +$7 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 14 $10 +$12 +116%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 14 $10 +$13 +124%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 12 $101 +$14 +14%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 92¢ $100 6m
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 89¢ $100 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET BUY Down 88¢ $202 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET SELL Down 90¢ $261 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET BUY Down 68¢ $204 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET BUY Up 72¢ $204 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET BUY Down 88¢ $403 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET SELL Down 94¢ $121 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET BUY Down 77¢ $102 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET BUY Down 17¢ $11 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET BUY Down 58¢ $103 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Up 60¢ $103 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $100 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $100 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $100 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET BUY Down 91¢ $101 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $100 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $171 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET BUY Up 58¢ $103 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET BUY Up 85¢ $101 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET BUY Up 93¢ $100 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET BUY Down 94¢ $87 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $100 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET BUY Up 93¢ $100 2d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 20¢ $102 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET BUY Down 94¢ $100 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET BUY Up 62¢ $103 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET BUY Down 66¢ $10 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET BUY Down 76¢ $102 6d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 3¢ $10 12d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $465.78 · official $465.78 (match) · 973 history records