Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T14:09:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

43
0x43d2…d05d
crypto · 619 markets active 5h ago
0.0score
−$1 -0%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$6 · open −$6
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$59
Realized+$6
Unrealized−$6
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses267 / 340
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions11
Markets (closed)607 / 619
History coverage22d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day41.1
Drawdown96%
Kalshi-fit98%
Chart Positions 11 History 607 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$21
7 days−$63
14 days−$9
30 days+$6
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 11¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+8%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-0%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-8%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 4¢ $8 $9 +$1 (+8%)
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Yes 54¢ 54¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Knicks vs. Spurs Knicks 36¢ 36¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Yes 48¢ 46¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-3%)
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $3 $2 −$1 (-28%)
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Card) Justin Gaethje 20¢ 20¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-2%)
World Cup: Goalkeeper to Score? Yes 5¢ 6¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+13%)
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI T1 52¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Up 16¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Up 33¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Up 24¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Down 19¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Up 41¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Up 43¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Up 52¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Down 18¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Up 20¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Down 54¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Down 10¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Up 21¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 12 $3 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 12 $2 +$2 +78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 12 $3 +$3 +89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 12 $3 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 12 $1 +$1 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 12 $2 −$1 -24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 12 $2 +$1 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 12 $1 +$2 +166%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 12 $2 +$1 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 12 $1 +$1 +124%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 12 $2 +$3 +152%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 12 $1 +$3 +276%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 12 $2 −$1 -31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 12 $2 +$1 +51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 12 $10 −$5 -52%
Map Handicap: FAL (-1.5) vs G2 (+1.5) Jun 12 $10 −$5 -51%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 12 $2 +$3 +165%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 12 $1 +$1 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 12 $3 +$1 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +16%
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $730 on June 11? Jun 11 $3 +$3 +104%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 74% −$36
sports 15% +$46
other 10% −$4
politics 1% −$6
world 0% −$3
finance 0% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Up 21¢ $1 5h
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Justin Gaethje 20¢ $2 5h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 54¢ $5 5h
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 48¢ $5 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET BUY Down 56¢ $1 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET BUY Down 71¢ $1 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET BUY Up 14¢ $1 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET BUY Down 63¢ $1 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET BUY Up 27¢ $1 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET BUY Down 10¢ $1 5h
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY T1 52¢ $6 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $1 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET BUY Up 33¢ $1 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $1 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET BUY Down 74¢ $1 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET BUY Up 17¢ $1 6h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY 9¢ $1 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $1 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET BUY Down 18¢ $1 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $1 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET BUY Down 66¢ $1 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET BUY Up 26¢ $1 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET BUY Up 18¢ $1 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $1 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET SELL Down 88¢ $2 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $1 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET BUY Up 64¢ $1 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET BUY Down 39¢ $1 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET BUY Up 44¢ $1 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET BUY Down 32¢ $1 8h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-17.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 259 -35.3% -41.5% 29% 25% -22.2%
≤30d 607 -8.6% -17.3% 44% 41% -9.0%
≤90d 607 -8.6% -17.3% 44% 41% -9.0%
all 607 -8.6% -17.3% 44% 41% -9.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover41.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -17.3% 41% -9.0%
10% ← realistic here -25.2% 39% -17.7%
15% -32.5% 37% -25.7%
20% -39.1% 33% -32.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $58.74 · official $59.76 · 1444 history records