Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T17:12:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
43 0x43d2…d3fa crypto 61 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 1d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (3440 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$36,600 (+184%) realized +$36,616 · open −$16
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -32% what you keep after slip
Net edge-32%after slip
Net WR14%break-even
Win rate36%27W / 47L
Whale WR62%big bets
Drawdown77%max
Avg bet$326per market
Trades / day3440.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$106now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$183
other 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (3440 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +14%
net ROI/market (all)-19.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 74 -11.3% -19.7% 36% 14% -9.0%
≤30d 74 -11.3% -19.7% 36% 14% -9.0%
≤90d 74 -11.3% -19.7% 36% 14% -9.0%
all 74 -11.3% -19.7% 36% 14% -9.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3440.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -19.7% 14% -9.0%
10% ← realistic here -27.4% 4% -17.7%
15% -34.4% 4% -25.7%
20% -40.8% 3% -33.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 24% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
59% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 62% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +20% → late -42% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
52.8 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$29 vs −$14 · ×2.02 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.16 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$106
Realized+$36,616
Unrealized−$16
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses27 / 47
Whale WR (big bets)62%
Open positions4
Markets (closed)74 / 61
History coverage1d ⚠
Avg bet$326
Trades / day3440.0
Drawdown77%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 74 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Solana Up or Down - June 25, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Up 47¢ 96¢ $18 $37 +$19 (+104%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Up 51¢ 84¢ $13 $21 +$8 (+63%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Down 43¢ 52¢ $16 $20 +$4 (+23%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Up 49¢ 48¢ $15 $15 −$1 (-4%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Down 41¢ 16¢ $18 $7 −$11 (-60%)
No one announced as next James Bond? Yes 90¢ 98¢ $4 $5 +$0 (+9%)
Solana Up or Down - June 25, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Down 41¢ 4¢ $4 $0 −$3 (-89%)
No one announced as next James Bond? No 13¢ 2¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-87%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 16 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Solana Up or Down - May 15, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jun 25 $0 $0 +59%
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Jun 25 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jun 25 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 25 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 25 $5 −$5 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 25, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET Jun 25 $8 −$8 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 25, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET Jun 25 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 25 $7 −$7 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 29, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Jun 25 $10 −$10 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 23, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Jun 25 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 25 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 25 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 15, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jun 25 $8 −$8 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 24, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET Jun 25 $4 −$4 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Jun 25 $8 −$8 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Jun 25 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Jun 25 $387 +$7 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Jun 25 $251 −$3 -1%
Solana Up or Down - June 25, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Jun 25 $191 −$23 -12%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jun 25 $103 −$15 -15%
Solana Up or Down - June 25, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jun 25 $43 −$11 -26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jun 25 $149 −$23 -15%
Solana Up or Down - June 25, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jun 25 $138 −$7 -5%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jun 25 $226 −$28 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jun 25 $532 +$26 +5%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 25 $237 −$14 -6%
Solana Up or Down - June 25, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 25 $205 +$21 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 25 $292 +$20 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Jun 25 $173 −$48 -28%
Solana Up or Down - June 25, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Jun 25 $143 −$26 -18%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Jun 25 $206 −$41 -20%
Solana Up or Down - June 25, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Jun 25 $504 +$1 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Jun 25 $571 −$46 -8%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Jun 25 $443 −$10 -2%
Solana Up or Down - June 25, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jun 25 $323 +$40 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jun 25 $458 +$13 +3%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jun 25 $343 −$2 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jun 25 $450 −$44 -10%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jun 25 $289 −$11 -4%
Solana Up or Down - June 25, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jun 25 $173 −$38 -22%
Solana Up or Down - June 25, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 25 $328 −$7 -2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 25 $383 −$4 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 25 $604 +$115 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 25 $529 −$5 -1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 25 $574 −$17 -3%
Solana Up or Down - June 25, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 25 $226 +$8 +3%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Jun 25 $529 +$15 +3%
Solana Up or Down - June 25, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Jun 25 $295 +$48 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Jun 25 $503 +$36 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 25 $129 +$47 +37%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $2 10m
Solana Up or Down - June 25, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $0 11m
Solana Up or Down - June 25, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $0 11m
Solana Up or Down - June 25, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET BUY Up 42¢ $2 11m
Solana Up or Down - June 25, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET BUY Up 43¢ $2 11m
Solana Up or Down - June 25, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET SELL Down 56¢ $3 11m
Solana Up or Down - June 25, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET BUY Up 45¢ $2 11m
Solana Up or Down - June 25, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET BUY Up 46¢ $2 11m
Solana Up or Down - June 25, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $2 11m
Solana Up or Down - June 25, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET SELL Down 52¢ $3 11m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $5 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET SELL Down 53¢ $1 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET SELL Down 52¢ $2 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET SELL Down 53¢ $2 11m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $2 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET SELL Down 52¢ $1 11m
Solana Up or Down - June 25, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $7 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $8 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $1 11m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET BUY Down 38¢ $2 11m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET BUY Down 37¢ $2 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET BUY Down 40¢ $3 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET BUY Down 40¢ $4 12m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET BUY Down 37¢ $2 12m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET BUY Down 42¢ $1 12m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET BUY Down 44¢ $2 12m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $5 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $4 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET BUY Down 44¢ $7 12m
Solana Up or Down - June 25, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET BUY Down 38¢ $2 12m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $106.12 · official $107.20 · 3500 history records