Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T11:16:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
43 0x43d8…18ef other 17 markets active 2d ago coverage 169d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$576 (-79%) realized −$576 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -35% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -41% what you keep after slip
Net edge-41%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate65%11W / 6L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$43per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Fees−$6est.
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$131
14 days−$299
30 days−$299
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 61% −$440
other 23% −$132
culture 4% −$2
tech 4% $0
politics 3% $0
crypto 3% $0
weather 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-41.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤30d 2 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤90d 11 -35.8% -41.9% 64% 0% -89.3%
all 17 -34.8% -41.0% 65% 0% -81.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -41.0% 0% -81.5%
10% -46.7% 0% -83.3%
15% -51.8% 0% -84.9%
20% -56.6% 0% -86.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 27% · top 2 42% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -88% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -35% · $-wt -80% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -25% → late -44% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$96 · ×0.0 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.0 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

169d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$576
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)65%
Wins / losses11 / 6
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions0
Markets (closed)17 / 17
History coverage169d
Avg bet$43
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 17 Trades
no open positions (6 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $133 −$131 -99%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 08 $170 −$168 -99%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 20 $91 −$89 -98%
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be László Toroczkai? May 20 $12 $0 +1%
Bruins vs. Sabres Apr 21 $185 −$183 -99%
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on March Apr 14 $7 $0 +0%
Trump-Denmark Greenland deal signed by March 31? Apr 14 $10 $0 +1%
Will NVIDIA be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on Mar 26 $9 $0 +0%
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $160 by end of February? Mar 26 $12 $0 +2%
Will January 2026 be the 3rd hottest on record? Mar 26 $13 $0 +1%
Will global temperature increase by less than 1.05ºC in February 2026? Mar 26 $13 $0 +1%
Will there be at least 500 measles cases in the U.S. by January 31, 20 Feb 02 $11 $0 +1%
Will NVIDIA reach $272 in January? Feb 02 $12 $0 +0%
Will With Heaven on Top by Zach Bryan be the Billboard 200 #1 album fo Jan 20 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Logan Paul’s PSA 10 Pokémon Illustrator Sale Price be over $5 mil Jan 20 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,600 on January 9? Jan 13 $21 $0 +0%
Will Superman be the third highest grossing movie of 2025? Jan 06 $27 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 53¢ $133 2d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Knicks 55¢ $170 12d
Spurs vs. Thunder BUY Spurs 33¢ $91 31d
Bruins vs. Sabres BUY Sabres 60¢ $185 60d
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on March BUY No 100¢ $7 86d
Trump-Denmark Greenland deal signed by March 31? BUY No 99¢ $10 94d
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be László Toroczkai? BUY No 99¢ $12 103d
Will global temperature increase by less than 1.05ºC in February 2026? BUY No 99¢ $13 108d
Will NVIDIA be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on BUY No 100¢ $9 116d
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $160 by end of February? BUY No 98¢ $12 131d
Will there be at least 500 measles cases in the U.S. by January 31, 20 BUY Yes 99¢ $9 143d
Will January 2026 be the 3rd hottest on record? BUY No 99¢ $13 143d
Will there be at least 500 measles cases in the U.S. by January 31, 20 BUY Yes 99¢ $2 143d
Will With Heaven on Top by Zach Bryan be the Billboard 200 #1 album fo BUY No $1 151d
Will With Heaven on Top by Zach Bryan be the Billboard 200 #1 album fo BUY No $1 151d
Will Logan Paul’s PSA 10 Pokémon Illustrator Sale Price be over $5 mil BUY No $2 151d
Will Logan Paul’s PSA 10 Pokémon Illustrator Sale Price be over $5 mil BUY No $0 151d
Will NVIDIA reach $272 in January? BUY No 100¢ $12 158d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,600 on January 9? BUY Yes 100¢ $21 165d
Will Superman be the third highest grossing movie of 2025? SELL Yes 100¢ $27 165d
Will Superman be the third highest grossing movie of 2025? BUY Yes 100¢ $27 171d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 31 history records