Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T09:31:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
43 0x43d8…abf2 crypto 474 markets active 1h ago coverage 117d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$684 (-5%) realized −$684 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -29% what you keep after slip
Net edge-29%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate43%202W / 272L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$28per market
Trades / day23.5pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$170
7 days−$4,080
14 days−$3,420
30 days−$3,421
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$1,870
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-16.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 430 -18.4% -26.2% 38% 37% -45.1%
≤30d 446 -14.0% -22.2% 40% 39% -37.9%
≤90d 466 -9.0% -17.6% 42% 41% -23.1%
all 474 -7.4% -16.2% 43% 42% -22.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover23.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -16.2% 42% -22.3%
10% ← realistic here -24.2% 41% -29.8%
15% -31.5% 38% -36.5%
20% -38.2% 36% -42.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 15% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -15% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -14% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -16% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
5.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$23 vs −$24 · ×0.96 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.71 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

117d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$684
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses202 / 272
Open positions0
Markets (closed)474 / 474
History coverage117d
Avg bet$28
Trades / day23.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 474 Trades
no open positions (2 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 24 $179 −$175 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 24 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 24 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 24 $32 +$44 +140%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 24 $70 +$50 +71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 24 $78 −$78 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 24 $204 +$118 +58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 24 $103 +$67 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 24 $40 +$5 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 24 $105 −$105 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 24 $149 −$149 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 24 $77 −$77 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 24 $76 −$76 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 24 $315 −$234 -74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 24 $63 −$63 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 24 $192 −$76 -39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 24 $86 −$83 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 24 $137 +$388 +284%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 24 $71 +$156 +218%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 24 $41 +$210 +510%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 24 $26 +$26 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 24 $4 +$3 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 24 $4 +$3 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 24 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 24 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 24 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 24 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 24 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 24 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 24 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 24 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 24 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 24 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 24 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 24 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 24 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 24 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 24 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 24 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 24 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 24 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 24 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 24 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 24 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 24 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 24 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 24 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 24 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 24 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 24 $4 −$4 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET BUY Down 64¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET BUY Down 66¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET BUY Down 65¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET BUY Down 66¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET BUY Down 68¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET BUY Down 66¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET BUY Down 65¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET BUY Up 5¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET BUY Up 4¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET BUY Up 4¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET BUY Up 5¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET BUY Up 8¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET BUY Up 14¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET BUY Up 14¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET BUY Up 14¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET BUY Up 43¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET BUY Up 42¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET BUY Down 38¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET BUY Down 41¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET BUY Down 56¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET BUY Down 56¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET BUY Down 59¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET BUY Down 56¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET BUY Down 56¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET BUY Down 56¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET SELL Down 49¢ $81 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3113 history records