Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T02:26:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
43 0x43d9…75c2 other 46 markets active 1h ago coverage 241d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$68 (-2%) realized −$68 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate93%41W / 3L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$74per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit50%portable
Net worth$118now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$2
30 days+$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 44% −$55
crypto 25% +$2
world 15% −$17
tech 7% $0
sports 5% +$1
economics 4% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-12.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +0.4% -9.2% 100% 0% -9.2%
≤30d 3 +0.4% -9.2% 100% 0% -9.2%
≤90d 10 +0.4% -9.1% 100% 0% -9.2%
all 44 -2.9% -12.1% 93% 0% -11.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.1% 0% -11.4%
10% -20.5% 0% -19.9%
15% -28.2% 0% -27.6%
20% -35.3% 0% -34.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 21% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -6% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$41 · ×0.01 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.17 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

241d coverage
Net worth$118
Realized−$68
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)93%
Wins / losses41 / 3
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions2
Markets (closed)44 / 46
History coverage241d
Avg bet$74
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit50%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 44 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Silver (SI) settle over $90 on the final trading day of June 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $97 $97 +$0 (+0%)
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,200 by end of June? No 100¢ 100¢ $22 $22 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will China blockade Taiwan by June 30? Jun 27 $123 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? Jun 17 $241 +$1 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 in May? Jun 04 $122 $0 +0%
Netanyahu out by May 31? May 23 $121 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $20 in May? May 15 $122 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $800 in April? May 03 $121 $0 +0%
Will Netflix (NFLX) finish week of April 20 above $160? Apr 26 $25 $0 +1%
Will Netflix (NFLX) finish week of April 20 above $170? Apr 26 $95 +$1 +1%
Will Solana dip to $10 in March? Apr 05 $71 $0 +0%
Will Netflix reach $455 in March? Mar 30 $119 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $30 in March? Mar 21 $119 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,600 March 9-15? Mar 17 $119 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $35,000 in March? Mar 13 $118 $0 +0%
Will Google reach $430 in February? Mar 05 $62 $0 +0%
Will Google (GOOGL) finish week of February 16 above $340? Feb 27 $61 $0 +0%
Will Netflix (NFLX) finish week of February 9 above $120? Feb 20 $61 $0 +0%
US strikes Iran by February 5, 2026? Feb 12 $61 $0 +0%
US strikes Iran by January 29, 2026? Feb 06 $61 $0 +0%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31? Jan 30 $22 −$19 -88%
No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting? Jan 30 $57 +$1 +2%
Will Elon Musk post 740+ tweets from January 13 to January 20, 2026? Jan 22 $57 $0 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 580+ tweets from January 2 to January 9, 2026? Jan 09 $106 −$63 -59%
Will Elon Musk post 720-739 tweets from December 30 to January 6, 2026 Jan 07 $30 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 740+ tweets from December 30 to January 6, 2026? Jan 07 $76 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 580+ tweets from December 26 to January 2, 2026? Jan 03 $52 +$1 +2%
Will Elon Musk be richest person on December 31? Jan 01 $53 $0 +1%
Will XRP reach $6.00 before 2026? Dec 31 $52 $0 +0%
Will the next US x Venezuela military engagement occur on December 18? Dec 24 $52 $0 +0%
Will the next US x Venezuela military engagement occur on December 12? Dec 19 $104 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum hit $10,000 by December 31? Dec 13 $22 $0 +0%
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after December 2025 meeting? Dec 13 $59 $0 +0%
Xi Jinping out in 2025? Dec 09 $23 $0 +0%
US x Venezuela military engagement by December 9? Dec 08 $21 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 460-479 tweets from November 28 to December 5, 202 Dec 07 $22 $0 +0%
US x Venezuela military engagement by November 30? Dec 07 $26 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from November 25 to December 2, 202 Dec 07 $33 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 440-459 tweets from November 18 to November 25, 20 Dec 01 $43 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 500+ tweets from November 21 to November 28, 2025? Dec 01 $61 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 500+ tweets from November 14 to November 21, 2025? Nov 22 $102 +$1 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 480-499 tweets from November 7 to November 14, 202 Nov 15 $103 $0 +0%
Will McDonald's be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on November 7 Nov 08 $100 $0 +0%
US x Venezuela military engagement by November 2? Nov 04 $98 +$2 +2%
US x Venezuela military engagement by October 31? Nov 02 $99 +$1 +1%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after October 2025 meeting? Oct 30 $10 $0 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Silver (SI) settle over $90 on the final trading day of June 2026 BUY No 100¢ $97 1h
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,200 by end of June? BUY No 100¢ $22 1h
Will China blockade Taiwan by June 30? SELL No 100¢ $124 1h
Will China blockade Taiwan by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $123 9d
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $99 10d
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $21 10d
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $2 10d
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $5 22d
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $116 22d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 in May? BUY No 100¢ $122 31d
Netanyahu out by May 31? SELL No 100¢ $122 34d
Netanyahu out by May 31? BUY No 99¢ $121 42d
Will Solana dip to $20 in May? SELL No 100¢ $122 42d
Will Solana dip to $20 in May? BUY No 100¢ $119 51d
Will Solana dip to $20 in May? BUY No 100¢ $3 54d
Will Ethereum dip to $800 in April? BUY No 100¢ $121 61d
Will Netflix (NFLX) finish week of April 20 above $170? BUY No 99¢ $71 68d
Will Netflix (NFLX) finish week of April 20 above $160? BUY No 99¢ $25 68d
Will Netflix (NFLX) finish week of April 20 above $170? BUY No 99¢ $25 68d
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $120 69d
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $119 83d
Will Solana dip to $10 in March? BUY No 100¢ $20 88d
Will Solana dip to $10 in March? BUY No 100¢ $51 88d
Will Netflix reach $455 in March? SELL No 100¢ $119 88d
Will Netflix reach $455 in March? BUY No 100¢ $119 97d
Will Solana dip to $30 in March? SELL No 100¢ $76 97d
Will Solana dip to $30 in March? SELL No 100¢ $7 97d
Will Solana dip to $30 in March? SELL No 100¢ $15 97d
Will Solana dip to $30 in March? SELL No 100¢ $13 97d
Will Solana dip to $30 in March? SELL No 100¢ $8 97d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $118.29 · official $118.29 (match) · 115 history records