Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T03:22:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
43 0x43df…c8ac sports 29 markets active 0h ago coverage 4d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$218 (-44%) realized −$209 · open −$9
Gross ROI / mkt -53% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -61% what you keep after slip
Net edge-61%after slip
Net WR21%break-even
Win rate21%5W / 19L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$17per market
Trades / day9.3pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit59%portable
Net worth$31now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 54% −$119
other 40% −$106
world 6% −$12
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +21%
net ROI/market (all)-57.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 24 -53.3% -57.7% 21% 21% -55.9%
≤30d 24 -53.3% -57.7% 21% 21% -55.9%
≤90d 24 -53.3% -57.7% 21% 21% -55.9%
all 24 -53.3% -57.7% 21% 21% -55.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.3 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -57.7% 21% -55.9%
10% -61.8% 21% -60.1%
15% -65.5% 21% -63.9%
20% -68.9% 17% -67.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 32% · top 2 58% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -51% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -53% · $-wt -51% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -65% → late -41% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$18 vs −$17 · ×1.08 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.29 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$31
Realized−$209
Unrealized−$9
Win rate (resolved)21%
Wins / losses5 / 19
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions5
Markets (closed)24 / 29
History coverage4d
Avg bet$17
Trades / day9.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit59%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 24 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Exact Score: Egypt 2 - 2 IR Iran? Yes 16¢ 14¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-10%)
Will New Zealand vs. Belgium end in a draw? Yes 12¢ 10¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-13%)
Exact Score: New Zealand 1 - 1 Belgium? Yes $10 $8 −$2 (-17%)
Exact Score: Egypt 3 - 2 IR Iran? Yes $5 $5 −$0 (-5%)
Exact Score: Egypt 0 - 2 IR Iran? Yes $5 $0 −$5 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 17 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $10 −$6 -57%
Will Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? Jun 27 $10 +$24 +237%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $30 +$21 +70%
Uruguay vs. Spain: Both Teams to Score Jun 26 $51 −$50 -99%
Norway vs. France: Both Teams to Score Jun 26 $51 +$29 +57%
Senegal vs. Iraq: Both Teams to Score Jun 26 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Senegal vs. Iraq end in a draw? Jun 26 $10 −$10 -98%
Exact Score: Norway 1 - 2 France? Jun 26 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Norway 1 - 1 France? Jun 26 $10 −$10 -97%
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $49 −$48 -99%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $51 −$50 -99%
Exact Score: South Africa 0 - 1 Korea Republic? Jun 25 $2 −$2 -98%
Exact Score: South Africa 1 - 1 Korea Republic? Jun 24 $2 −$2 -98%
Exact Score: South Africa 3 - 1 Korea Republic? Jun 24 $2 $0 -15%
Exact Score: South Africa 2 - 1 Korea Republic? Jun 24 $2 −$2 -97%
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score Jun 24 $20 −$20 -98%
Czechia vs. Mexico: Both Teams to Score Jun 24 $10 −$10 -99%
Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar: Both Teams to Score Jun 24 $10 +$9 +86%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $19 +$8 +43%
Will Panama vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 24 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Switzerland vs. Canada end in a draw? Jun 23 $10 −$10 -98%
England vs. Ghana: Both Teams to Score Jun 23 $31 −$30 -98%
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 1 Uzbekistan? Jun 23 $10 −$10 -97%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: Both Teams to Score Jun 23 $20 −$20 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Egypt 3 - 2 IR Iran? BUY Yes $5 2m
Exact Score: Egypt 2 - 2 IR Iran? BUY Yes 16¢ $10 2m
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-26? SELL Yes 13¢ $4 9m
Exact Score: New Zealand 1 - 1 Belgium? BUY Yes $10 1h
Exact Score: Egypt 0 - 2 IR Iran? BUY Yes $5 1h
Will Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $34 1h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? SELL Yes 100¢ $52 1h
Will New Zealand vs. Belgium end in a draw? BUY Yes 12¢ $10 1h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 29¢ $10 1h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 58¢ $30 3h
Uruguay vs. Spain: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 52¢ $51 3h
Senegal vs. Iraq: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 46¢ $20 17h
Will Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $10 17h
Will Senegal vs. Iraq end in a draw? BUY Yes 14¢ $10 17h
Exact Score: Norway 1 - 2 France? BUY Yes 12¢ $10 17h
Exact Score: Norway 1 - 1 France? BUY Yes 10¢ $10 17h
Norway vs. France: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 63¢ $51 17h
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 55¢ $49 27h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 64¢ $51 42h
Exact Score: South Africa 0 - 1 Korea Republic? BUY Yes 22¢ $2 2d
Exact Score: South Africa 1 - 1 Korea Republic? BUY Yes 13¢ $2 2d
Exact Score: South Africa 3 - 1 Korea Republic? SELL Yes $2 2d
Exact Score: South Africa 3 - 1 Korea Republic? BUY Yes $2 2d
Exact Score: South Africa 2 - 1 Korea Republic? BUY Yes $2 2d
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 46¢ $20 2d
Czechia vs. Mexico: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 51¢ $10 2d
Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 53¢ $10 2d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 93¢ $28 2d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 64¢ $19 3d
Will Panama vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 13¢ $10 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $30.93 · official $30.94 (match) · 36 history records