Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T00:06:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
43 0x43e0…8618 sports 70 markets active 0h ago coverage 77d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable sports specialistP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$702 (+2%) realized +$975 · open −$273
Gross ROI / mkt -14% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR51%break-even
Win rate61%42W / 27L
Whale WR78%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$470per market
Trades / day1.6pace
Fees−$235est.
Kalshi-fit87%portable
Net worth$4now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 77d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 65% −$3,039
other 35% +$1,333
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +51%
net ROI/market (all)-21.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 14 -16.5% -24.4% 64% 50% -12.6%
≤30d 30 -21.3% -28.8% 60% 47% -13.3%
≤90d 69 -13.7% -21.9% 61% 51% -13.6%
all 69 -13.7% -21.9% 61% 51% -13.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -21.9% 51% -13.6%
10% -29.4% 39% -21.9%
15% -36.2% 20% -29.4%
20% -42.4% 16% -36.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 23% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
17% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -14% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 78% (≥$563) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -7% → late -20% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$137 vs −$266 · ×0.51 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.8 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

77d coverage
Net worth$4
Realized+$975
Unrealized−$273
Win rate (resolved)61%
Wins / losses42 / 27
Whale WR (big bets)78%
Est. fees paid−$235
Open positions1
Markets (closed)69 / 70
History coverage77d
Avg bet$470
Trades / day1.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit87%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 69 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
UFC Fight Night: Kevin Borjas vs. Andre Lima (Flyweight, Main Card) Andre Lima 35¢ $277 $4 −$273 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 17 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
UFC Fight Night: Gaston Bolaños vs. Michael Aswell (Featherweight, Pre Jun 20 $2,129 −$1,232 -58%
UFC Fight Night: Allan Nascimento vs. Mitch Raposo (Flyweight, Prelims Jun 20 $374 −$365 -98%
UFC Fight Night: Karol Rosa vs. Luana Santos (Women's Bantamweight, Pr Jun 20 $478 −$478 -100%
UFC Fight Night: Otari Tanzilovi vs. Shane Collins (Featherweight, Pre Jun 20 $190 −$186 -98%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $563 +$120 +21%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $1,977 +$144 +7%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $2,159 +$158 +7%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $2,580 +$278 +11%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $2,187 +$564 +26%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $738 +$88 +12%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1,273 +$218 +17%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $1,374 −$374 -27%
UFC Freedom 250: Michael Chandler vs. Mauricio Ruffy (Lightweight, Mai Jun 15 $1,007 +$275 +27%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $696 +$178 +26%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $994 +$241 +24%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $594 +$758 +128%
UFC Fight Night: Belal Muhammad vs. Gabriel Bonfim (Welterweight, Main Jun 07 $143 −$140 -98%
Indiana Fever vs. New York Liberty Jun 07 $51 −$50 -97%
UFC Fight Night: Brendan Allen vs. Edmen Shahbazyan (Middleweight, Mai Jun 07 $168 −$164 -97%
UFC Fight Night: Farés Ziam vs. Tom Nolan (Lightweight, Prelims) Jun 07 $485 −$475 -98%
UFC Fight Night: Bryce Mitchell vs. Santiago Luna (Bantamweight, Main Jun 07 $755 −$50 -7%
UFC Fight Night: Matt Schnell vs. Alessandro Costa (Catchweight, Preli Jun 07 $20 +$5 +26%
UFC Fight Night: Bruno Silva vs. Édgar Cháirez (Flyweight, Prelims) Jun 06 $380 −$374 -98%
Spread: San Francisco Giants (-1.5) Jun 03 $371 +$90 +24%
UFC Fight Night: Sergei Pavlovich vs. Tallison Teixeira (Heavyweight, May 30 $483 +$103 +21%
UFC Fight Night: Alex Perez vs. Sumudaerji (Flyweight, Main Card) May 30 $151 +$46 +30%
UFC Fight Night: Ding Meng vs. Jose Henrique (Welterweight, Prelims) May 30 $613 −$602 -98%
Miami Marlins vs. New York Mets May 30 $1,552 +$149 +10%
Roland Garros ATP: Alex de Minaur vs Toby Samuel May 25 $61 +$5 +8%
Canadiens vs. Hurricanes May 22 $288 +$53 +18%
Cavaliers vs. Knicks May 20 $389 −$384 -99%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 19 $765 +$455 +60%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Colorado Rockies May 18 $33 +$5 +14%
UFC Fight Night: Arnold Allen vs. Melquizael Costa (Featherweight, Mai May 17 $504 +$326 +65%
UFC Fight Night: Dooho Choi vs. Daniel Santos (Featherweight, Main Car May 17 $705 −$700 -99%
UFC Fight Night: Tuco Tokkos vs. Ivan Erslan (Light Heavyweight, Preli May 17 $330 +$346 +105%
UFC Fight Night: Daniel Barez vs. Luis Gurule (Flyweight, Prelims) May 16 $205 −$200 -98%
UFC Fight Night: Nicolle Caliari vs. Shauna Bannon (Women's Strawweigh May 16 $306 +$558 +182%
Will Hamburger SV win on 2026-05-16? May 16 $452 +$43 +10%
New York Liberty vs. Portland Fire May 15 $377 +$89 +24%
Chicago Sky vs. Golden State Valkyries May 14 $384 −$378 -98%
Will Crystal Palace FC win on 2026-03-21? May 14 $661 +$42 +6%
Knicks vs. 76ers May 11 $532 +$18 +3%
Spurs vs. Timberwolves May 11 $21 −$20 -97%
UFC 328: Sean Strickland vs. Khamzat Chimaev (Middleweight, Main Card) May 10 $23 −$22 -99%
Thunder vs. Lakers May 10 $19 +$6 +29%
UFC 328: Alexander Volkov vs. Waldo Cortes-Acosta (Heavyweight, Main C May 10 $227 −$223 -98%
UFC 328: Grant Dawson vs. Mateusz Rebecki (Lightweight, Prelims) May 10 $171 +$55 +32%
UFC 328: Pat Sabatini vs. William Gomis (Featherweight, Early Prelims) May 09 $141 +$50 +36%
Timberwolves vs. Spurs May 03 $459 −$458 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
UFC Fight Night: Kevin Borjas vs. Andre Lima (Flyweight, Main Card) BUY Andre Lima 30¢ $128 7m
UFC Fight Night: Kevin Borjas vs. Andre Lima (Flyweight, Main Card) BUY Andre Lima 41¢ $155 10m
UFC Fight Night: Allan Nascimento vs. Mitch Raposo (Flyweight, Prelims BUY Allan Nascimento 14¢ $103 59m
UFC Fight Night: Allan Nascimento vs. Mitch Raposo (Flyweight, Prelims BUY Allan Nascimento 10¢ $67 1h
UFC Fight Night: Allan Nascimento vs. Mitch Raposo (Flyweight, Prelims BUY Allan Nascimento 28¢ $204 1h
UFC Fight Night: Gaston Bolaños vs. Michael Aswell (Featherweight, Pre BUY Gaston Bolaños 43¢ $280 1h
UFC Fight Night: Gaston Bolaños vs. Michael Aswell (Featherweight, Pre BUY Gaston Bolaños 50¢ $131 1h
UFC Fight Night: Gaston Bolaños vs. Michael Aswell (Featherweight, Pre BUY Michael Aswell 34¢ $408 1h
UFC Fight Night: Gaston Bolaños vs. Michael Aswell (Featherweight, Pre BUY Michael Aswell 46¢ $305 1h
UFC Fight Night: Gaston Bolaños vs. Michael Aswell (Featherweight, Pre BUY Michael Aswell 80¢ $1,006 1h
UFC Fight Night: Karol Rosa vs. Luana Santos (Women's Bantamweight, Pr BUY Karol Rosa $21 2h
UFC Fight Night: Karol Rosa vs. Luana Santos (Women's Bantamweight, Pr BUY Karol Rosa 47¢ $457 2h
UFC Fight Night: Otari Tanzilovi vs. Shane Collins (Featherweight, Pre BUY Otari Tanzilovi $7 2h
UFC Fight Night: Otari Tanzilovi vs. Shane Collins (Featherweight, Pre BUY Otari Tanzilovi 22¢ $180 2h
UFC Fight Night: Otari Tanzilovi vs. Shane Collins (Featherweight, Pre BUY Otari Tanzilovi 20¢ $0 2h
UFC Fight Night: Otari Tanzilovi vs. Shane Collins (Featherweight, Pre BUY Otari Tanzilovi 20¢ $3 2h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 82¢ $563 30h
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 93¢ $1,977 2d
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 93¢ $2,159 3d
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 90¢ $2,580 3d
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY No 79¢ $2,187 4d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 85¢ $1,273 5d
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 89¢ $738 5d
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Justin Gaethje $16 5d
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Justin Gaethje $3 5d
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Justin Gaethje $1 5d
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Justin Gaethje $1 5d
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Justin Gaethje $0 5d
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Justin Gaethje $1 5d
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Justin Gaethje $13 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3.96 · official $99.08 · 180 history records