Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T13:58:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

43
0x43e1…1b93
weather · 188 markets active 2h ago
0.0score
−$129 -2%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$127 · open −$2
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP weather specialist⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$76
Realized−$127
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses108 / 72
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions8
Markets (closed)180 / 188
History coverage55d
Avg bet$44
Trades / day12.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit90%
Chart Positions 8 History 180 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$3
14 days−$1
30 days−$46
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Yes 48¢ 46¢ $48 $46 −$2 (-3%)
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Yes 24¢ 24¢ $24 $24 −$0 (-2%)
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 11¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-0%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 9¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 17¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-0%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 8¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? Yes 10¢ 10¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-5%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Up 5¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Up 4¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Knicks vs. 76ers 76ers 32¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Lakers vs. Thunder Lakers 13¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on May 9? No 34¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Up 20¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 16°C on May 16? No 86¢ 0¢ $15 $0 −$15 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 16°C on May 17? Yes 49¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will Trump say "Strait" or "Hormuz" during events with Xi Jinping? Yes 3¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026? Yes 35¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Up 71¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Up 1¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jun 09 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET Jun 09 $1 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Jun 09 $1 $0 -38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Jun 09 $2 $0 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 09 $1 $0 +47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Jun 09 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Jun 04 $141 +$2 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET May 31 $1 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET May 28 $1 −$1 -94%
Will there be exactly 9 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwi May 18 $121 +$4 +4%
Will there be exactly 7 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwi May 17 $15 +$3 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET May 17 $1 −$1 -98%
Will the highest temperature in London be 16°C on May 17? May 17 $5 −$5 -98%
Will China announce a Boeing aircraft purchase by May 22? May 17 $7 +$6 +89%
Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping? May 17 $2 −$2 -96%
Will Trump say "Strait" or "Hormuz" during events with Xi Jinping? May 17 $3 −$3 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on May 17? May 17 $1 +$1 +73%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on May 17? May 17 $20 +$2 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on May 17? May 17 $128 +$9 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 16°C on May 16? May 16 $75 −$70 -94%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on May 16? May 16 $79 +$3 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Lagos be 32°C on May 15? May 15 $3 −$2 -67%
Will the highest temperature in Lagos be 29°C on May 15? May 15 $34 +$3 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Lagos be 35°C on May 14? May 14 $193 +$4 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on May 14? May 14 $189 +$3 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Lagos be 36°C or higher on May 13? May 14 $187 +$2 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Lagos be 35°C on May 13? May 13 $104 −$4 -4%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on May 14? May 13 $1 +$4 +717%
Will the highest temperature in Lagos be 31°C on May 13? May 13 $77 +$2 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on May 13? May 13 $4 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on May 13? May 13 $180 +$2 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 20°C on May 13? May 13 $37 −$34 -91%
Will the highest temperature in Lagos be 35°C on May 12? May 12 $210 +$7 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 32°C on May 12? May 12 $192 +$3 +2%
Will the highest temperature in London be 14°C on May 11? May 11 $200 +$6 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Lagos be 29°C on May 11? May 11 $198 +$2 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Lagos be 27°C or below on May 11? May 11 $194 +$4 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C or higher on May 11? May 11 $188 +$6 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 21°C on May 10? May 10 $185 +$2 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 29°C on May 10? May 10 $41 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 21°C on May 10? May 10 $6 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 25°C on May 10? May 10 $175 +$3 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 15°C on May 9? May 09 $180 +$2 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 22°C or below on May 9? May 09 $72 +$3 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on May 9? May 09 $2 −$2 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 22°C or higher on May 9? May 09 $156 +$22 +14%
Knicks vs. 76ers May 09 $2 −$2 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 22°C on May 8? May 08 $148 +$10 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 21°C on May 8? May 08 $127 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 21°C on May 8? May 08 $19 +$1 +3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
weather 94% −$148
other 3% +$11
crypto 2% −$8
world 1% +$23
politics 0% −$1
sports 0% −$3
tech 0% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 10¢ $1 2h
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 2h
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 8¢ $1 2h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 9¢ $1 2h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 2h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 17¢ $1 2h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 24¢ $25 2h
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 48¢ $49 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET BUY Up 20¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET SELL Up 46¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET BUY Up 37¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET SELL Up 10¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET BUY Up 15¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET SELL Up 25¢ $2 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET BUY Up 16¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET SELL Down 25¢ $2 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET BUY Down 17¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET BUY Up 4¢ $0 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET BUY Up 4¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET BUY Up 9¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET SELL Up 90¢ $143 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET BUY Up 88¢ $141 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET SELL Down 27¢ $1 12d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET BUY Down 23¢ $1 12d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET BUY Up 4¢ $1 15d
Will there be exactly 9 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwi SELL No 100¢ $125 25d
Will there be exactly 7 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwi SELL Yes 56¢ $8 25d
Will there be exactly 7 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwi SELL Yes 85¢ $10 25d
Will there be exactly 9 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwi BUY No 97¢ $51 26d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +23%
net ROI/market (all)-14.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -35.5% -41.6% 33% 33% -48.6%
≤30d 28 +2.2% -7.5% 57% 21% -8.8%
≤90d 180 -5.7% -14.7% 60% 23% -10.3%
all 180 -5.7% -14.7% 60% 23% -10.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover12.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.7% 23% -10.3%
10% -22.8% 14% -18.9%
15% -30.3% 9% -26.7%
20% -37.1% 7% -33.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $76.21 · official $76.21 (match) · 752 history records