Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T13:32:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
43 0x43e3…43f7 other 76 markets active 1h ago coverage 226d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$7,617 (+18%) realized +$7,648 · open −$31
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +19% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +4% what you keep after slip
Net edge+4%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate46%32W / 38L
Whale WR67%big bets
Drawdown68%max
Avg bet$543per market
Trades / day2.8pace
Fees−$147est.
Kalshi-fit53%portable
Net worth$2,237now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2,665
7 days+$877
14 days+$4,330
30 days+$5,983
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 38% +$4,548
sports 33% +$92
crypto 26% +$3,864
tech 2% −$801
finance 2% −$700
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)+7.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 59 +11.1% +0.5% 39% 36% -6.9%
≤30d 63 +16.4% +5.3% 43% 40% +5.6%
≤90d 68 +16.5% +5.4% 44% 41% +2.0%
all 70 +19.2% +7.9% 46% 41% +6.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +7.9% 41% +6.8%
10% -2.5% 41% -3.4%
15% -11.9% 41% -12.7%
20% -20.5% 39% -21.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 21% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +13% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
9% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +19% · $-wt +18% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 67% (≥$687) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +31% → late +8% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
8.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$717 vs −$419 · ×1.71 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.44 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

226d coverage
Net worth$2,237
Realized+$7,648
Unrealized−$31
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses32 / 38
Whale WR (big bets)67%
Est. fees paid−$147
Open positions5
Markets (closed)70 / 76
History coverage226d
Avg bet$543
Trades / day2.8
Drawdown68%
Kalshi-fit53%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 70 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Yes 53¢ 52¢ $1,060 $1,050 −$10 (-1%)
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Over 45¢ 44¢ $900 $890 −$10 (-1%)
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? No 38¢ 38¢ $190 $188 −$2 (-1%)
Exact Score: Switzerland 0 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $90 $82 −$8 (-8%)
Exact Score: Switzerland 0 - 2 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Yes 3¢ 3¢ $28 $27 −$1 (-4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $118 −$118 -100%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Uzbekistan O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $273 −$273 -100%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $427 +$573 +134%
Ghana vs. Panama: Panama O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $350 +$650 +186%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 18 $205 −$205 -100%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: DR Congo O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $571 −$571 -100%
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 0 DR Congo? Jun 18 $200 −$200 -100%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $875 −$875 -100%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $1,012 +$655 +65%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 17 $97 −$97 -100%
Exact Score: Austria 3 - 0 Jordan? Jun 17 $56 −$56 -100%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $296 −$296 -100%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Jun 17 $200 −$200 -100%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $102 −$102 -100%
Norway to win the second half? Jun 17 $214 −$214 -100%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 17 $192 −$192 -100%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $2,089 +$911 +44%
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 0 Algeria? Jun 17 $139 +$1,211 +874%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Algeria O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $517 +$483 +93%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 17 $219 +$281 +129%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 17 $589 +$1,661 +282%
Iraq vs. Norway: 2nd Half O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $215 +$285 +133%
Spread: Norway (-2.5) Jun 17 $220 +$380 +172%
Will Germany win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $687 +$27 +4%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $173 −$173 -100%
France vs. Senegal: 2nd Half O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $107 −$107 -100%
France vs. Senegal: France O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $111 −$111 -100%
France vs. Senegal: Senegal 2nd Half O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $660 −$660 -100%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Sweden 2nd Half O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $71 −$71 -100%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: 2nd Half O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $73 −$73 -100%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $989 −$989 -100%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 16 $516 −$516 -100%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $506 −$506 -100%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $168 +$332 +197%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $188 +$312 +165%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $205 +$2,017 +982%
United States vs. Paraguay: 2nd Half O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $113 −$113 -100%
Spread: Mexico (-2.5) Jun 15 $96 −$96 -100%
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 4.5 Jun 15 $174 −$174 -100%
Germany vs. Curaçao: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $308 −$308 -100%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 4.5 Jun 15 $200 −$200 -100%
Curaçao leading at halftime? Jun 15 $103 −$103 -100%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? Jun 15 $505 −$505 -100%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $103 −$103 -100%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 15 $701 −$701 -100%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? Jun 15 $514 −$514 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 15 $3,790 −$3,790 -100%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Germany 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $2,839 +$65 +2%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1,017 +$1,256 +124%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $1,013 +$741 +73%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Switzerland 0 - 2 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY Yes 3¢ $0 47m
Exact Score: Switzerland 0 - 2 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 47m
Exact Score: Switzerland 0 - 2 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY Yes 3¢ $2 1h
Exact Score: Switzerland 0 - 2 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 1h
Exact Score: Switzerland 0 - 2 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY Yes 3¢ $0 1h
Exact Score: Switzerland 0 - 2 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 1h
Exact Score: Switzerland 0 - 2 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY Yes 3¢ $2 1h
Exact Score: Switzerland 0 - 2 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY Yes 3¢ $22 1h
Exact Score: Switzerland 0 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY Yes 6¢ $93 1h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 38¢ $194 1h
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 45¢ $915 1h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 53¢ $1,075 1h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 59¢ $506 20h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 61¢ $506 20h
Ghana vs. Panama: Panama O/U 0.5 BUY Under 35¢ $130 21h
Ghana vs. Panama: Panama O/U 0.5 BUY Under 35¢ $54 21h
Ghana vs. Panama: Panama O/U 0.5 BUY Under 35¢ $6 21h
Ghana vs. Panama: Panama O/U 0.5 BUY Under 35¢ $17 21h
Ghana vs. Panama: Panama O/U 0.5 BUY Under 35¢ $27 22h
Ghana vs. Panama: Panama O/U 0.5 BUY Under 35¢ $3 22h
Ghana vs. Panama: Panama O/U 0.5 BUY Under 35¢ $3 22h
Ghana vs. Panama: Panama O/U 0.5 BUY Under 35¢ $1 22h
Ghana vs. Panama: Panama O/U 0.5 BUY Under 35¢ $19 22h
Ghana vs. Panama: Panama O/U 0.5 BUY Under 35¢ $7 23h
Ghana vs. Panama: Panama O/U 0.5 BUY Under 35¢ $4 23h
Ghana vs. Panama: Panama O/U 0.5 BUY Under 35¢ $77 23h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Uzbekistan O/U 0.5 BUY Under 54¢ $26 23h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Uzbekistan O/U 0.5 BUY Under 54¢ $247 23h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: DR Congo O/U 0.5 BUY Under 57¢ $270 23h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 29¢ $118 23h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,237.00 · official $2,237.00 (match) · 705 history records