Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T23:11:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
43 0x43e3…4b0e other 35 markets active 2h ago coverage 466d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$4 (-1%) realized −$3 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -6% what you keep after slip
Net edge-6%after slip
Net WR6%break-even
Win rate53%18W / 16L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$15per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit69%portable
Net worth$38now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days−$6
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 29% +$1
other 28% +$1
finance 12% −$5
crypto 10% $0
sports 8% −$4
politics 4% +$1
economics 4% $0
weather 3% $0
culture 1% $0
tech 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-5.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +0.0% -9.5% 0% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 5 -1.9% -11.2% 20% 0% -12.2%
≤90d 5 -1.9% -11.2% 20% 0% -12.2%
all 34 +4.2% -5.7% 53% 6% -10.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -5.7% 6% -10.3%
10% -14.7% 3% -18.9%
15% -23.0% 3% -26.7%
20% -30.5% 3% -33.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 37% · top 2 53% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% too few recent
Fragile wins
89% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +8% → late +1% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.31 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.62 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

466d coverage
Net worth$38
Realized−$3
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses18 / 16
Open positions1
Markets (closed)34 / 35
History coverage466d
Avg bet$15
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit69%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 34 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Cuban regime falls in 2026? No 82¢ 80¢ $39 $38 −$1 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 18 $8 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 27 $65 −$5 -7%
Iran leadership change by May 31? May 26 $37 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 25 $67 −$2 -2%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? May 24 $37 $0 +0%
Will Superman be the top grossing movie of 2025? Jul 16 $7 $0 +2%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after July 2025 meeting? Jul 01 $10 $0 +2%
Will Ethereum reach $4000 in May? May 13 $9 $0 -1%
Will Trump sell 5k-10k Gold Cards in 2025? May 12 $3 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1400 in May? May 12 $4 $0 -5%
Will the Cleveland Guardians win the 2025 World Series? May 12 $17 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum reach $3500 in May? May 11 $6 $0 -3%
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? May 10 $10 $0 +0%
Will 'Wicked: For Good' have the best domestic opening weekend in 2025 May 10 $10 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150k in May? May 09 $6 $0 +0%
Will Luis Antonio Tagle be the next pope? May 09 $10 $0 +2%
Will Pierre Poilievre be the next Canadian Prime Minister? May 06 $5 +$1 +21%
Will Alibaba have the top AI model on June 30? Apr 23 $5 $0 -0%
Will the first pick of the 2025 NFL Draft get traded? Apr 20 $5 $0 +1%
Will the Golden State Warriors make the NBA Playoffs? Apr 11 $12 −$4 -34%
Will Elon tweet less than 250 times April 4 - 11? Apr 10 $12 $0 +3%
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2025 World Series? Apr 10 $5 $0 +4%
Will the Giants draft Shedeur Sanders? Apr 07 $16 $0 +1%
Will Ivica Zubac win 2024-25 NBA Most Improved? Apr 05 $16 $0 +0%
Will Nottingham Forest finish in 2nd place for the 2024-25 EPL season? Apr 04 $1 $0 +10%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,500.00 by March 31? Apr 03 $15 $0 +1%
Will the Washington Capitals win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Mar 29 $16 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in NYC be 53°F or higher on March 23? Mar 25 $15 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $77000 on Mar 21? Mar 23 $13 $0 +1%
Israel x Hamas ceasefire by Friday? Mar 20 $2 +$2 +135%
Will Trump issue an executive order on March 16? Mar 18 $13 $0 +2%
Will Elon tweet 575-599 times March 7-14? Mar 15 $11 +$1 +6%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2025 NBA Finals? Mar 13 $12 $0 +0%
Will Bayern Munich or Bayer Leverkusen advance in the UCL Round of 16? Mar 12 $12 $0 +4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 82¢ $39 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL No 10¢ $8 16h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL No 10¢ $1 16h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY No 10¢ $5 24h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY No 10¢ $3 24h
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? SELL No 90¢ $42 22d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? BUY No 90¢ $41 22d
Iran leadership change by May 31? SELL No 99¢ $37 23d
Iran leadership change by May 31? BUY No 99¢ $37 23d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL Yes 42¢ $10 24d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL Yes 42¢ $2 24d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL Yes 42¢ $1 24d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL Yes 42¢ $0 24d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL Yes 42¢ $2 24d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL Yes 42¢ $2 24d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL Yes 42¢ $2 24d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL Yes 42¢ $2 24d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL Yes 42¢ $2 24d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL Yes 42¢ $2 24d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL Yes 42¢ $2 24d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY Yes 40¢ $11 24d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY Yes 40¢ $16 24d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL No 57¢ $3 25d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL No 57¢ $34 25d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY No 57¢ $11 25d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY No 57¢ $15 25d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY No 57¢ $10 25d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? SELL Yes 21¢ $19 25d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? BUY Yes 26¢ $15 25d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? BUY Yes 26¢ $1 25d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $38.40 · official $38.40 (match) · 121 history records