Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T19:25:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
43 0x43e7…2380 other 25 markets active 2h ago coverage 155d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$93 (-7%) realized −$132 · open +$39
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -42% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -48% what you keep after slip
Net edge-48%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate0%0W / 3L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$55per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit12%portable
Net worth$1,166now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 155d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 87% +$18
sports 10% −$125
crypto 3% +$18
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-47.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -13.0% -21.2% 0% 0% -21.4%
≤30d 3 -42.0% -47.5% 0% 0% -65.3%
≤90d 3 -42.0% -47.5% 0% 0% -65.3%
all 3 -42.0% -47.5% 0% 0% -65.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -47.5% 0% -65.3%
10% -52.5% 0% -68.6%
15% -57.1% 0% -71.6%
20% -61.3% 0% -74.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top —% · top 2 —% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -62% too few recent
Fragile wins
—% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -42% · $-wt -62% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
— vs −$43 no data
Profit factor
×0.0 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

155d coverage
Net worth$1,166
Realized−$132
Unrealized+$39
Win rate (resolved)0%
Wins / losses0 / 3
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions22
Markets (closed)3 / 25
History coverage155d
Avg bet$55
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit12%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 22 History 3 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 21¢ 35¢ $90 $146 +$56 (+63%)
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 25¢ 36¢ $100 $142 +$42 (+42%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 18¢ 19¢ $100 $103 +$3 (+3%)
Will Vinicius Junior be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 6¢ $28 $91 +$63 (+223%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 14¢ 14¢ $90 $90 −$0 (-0%)
Will France win on 2026-06-26? Yes 70¢ 88¢ $65 $82 +$17 (+26%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 12¢ 15¢ $60 $76 +$16 (+26%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 6¢ $40 $58 +$18 (+44%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $60 $56 −$4 (-8%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 8¢ $40 $42 +$2 (+4%)
Will Erling Haaland be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 8¢ $50 $42 −$8 (-17%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 13¢ 10¢ $50 $39 −$11 (-21%)
World Cup: Messi to Score a Free Kick? Yes 24¢ 17¢ $50 $35 −$15 (-30%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 6¢ 5¢ $40 $33 −$7 (-18%)
Will Canada be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup? Yes 48¢ 27¢ $50 $28 −$22 (-44%)
Will Takefusa Kubo score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 27¢ 13¢ $50 $24 −$26 (-52%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 3¢ 3¢ $19 $20 +$0 (+2%)
Will Harry Kane be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 21¢ 6¢ $60 $19 −$41 (-69%)
World Cup: Ronaldo to Score a Free Kick? Yes 16¢ 12¢ $16 $13 −$3 (-21%)
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 3¢ 3¢ $14 $12 −$1 (-11%)
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $40 $12 −$28 (-70%)
Will Norway vs. France end in a draw? Yes 18¢ 8¢ $14 $6 −$8 (-58%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Switzerland be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup? Jun 26 $51 −$7 -15%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 26 $41 −$5 -11%
Will Liverpool win the 2025–26 Champions League? Jun 18 $116 −$116 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Norway vs. France end in a draw? BUY Yes 18¢ $15 1h
Will France win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 70¢ $66 1h
Will Switzerland be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup? SELL Yes 33¢ $43 3h
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 2¢ $37 3h
World Cup: Ronaldo to Score a Free Kick? BUY Yes 16¢ $17 4d
Will Takefusa Kubo score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 27¢ $51 4d
Will Switzerland be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup? BUY Yes 37¢ $51 4d
World Cup: Messi to Score a Free Kick? BUY Yes 24¢ $51 4d
Will Canada be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup? BUY Yes 48¢ $51 4d
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 3¢ $14 6d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 4¢ $41 6d
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 6¢ $62 6d
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 3¢ $20 8d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $41 8d
Will Vinicius Junior be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $29 8d
Will Erling Haaland be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 9¢ $51 8d
Will Harry Kane be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 21¢ $61 8d
Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 21¢ $92 8d
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 25¢ $102 8d
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $41 8d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 8¢ $41 8d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 6¢ $41 8d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 13¢ $51 8d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 12¢ $62 8d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 14¢ $92 8d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 18¢ $102 8d
Will Liverpool win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY Yes 9¢ $116 155d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,166.24 · official $1,166.29 (match) · 36 history records