Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T10:34:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

43
0x43e9…88e5
other · 14 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
+$2,332 +10%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$10 · open +$201
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
Chart Positions 12 History 2 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$10
7 days−$10
14 days−$10
30 days−$10
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? Yes $1,487 $1,554 +$67 (+5%)
Will Audi be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Yes $565 $605 +$40 (+7%)
Will Alpine be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Yes $533 $566 +$33 (+6%)
Will Aston Martin be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Yes $513 $535 +$21 (+4%)
Will Haas be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Yes $514 $534 +$21 (+4%)
Will Scream 7 be the top grossing movie of 2026? Yes $454 $500 +$45 (+10%)
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2026 World Series? Yes $422 $366 −$56 (-13%)
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Yes $311 $329 +$18 (+6%)
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Yes $180 $210 +$30 (+17%)
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Yes $96 $109 +$12 (+12%)
Will Project Hail Mary be the top grossing movie of 2026? Yes $118 $99 −$19 (-16%)
Will The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping be the top grossing movie of 2026? Yes $109 $98 −$11 (-10%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee Jun 11 $220 $0 -0%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 11 $22,127 −$10 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 94% −$10
other 3% +$77
economics 1% +$42
culture 1% +$15
politics 1% +$67
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL Yes $0 3m
Will Aston Martin be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL Yes $0 3m
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL Yes $1 6m
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL Yes $0 6m
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL Yes $0 7m
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL Yes $0 7m
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL Yes $0 11m
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL Yes $0 12m
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY Yes $0 13m
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY Yes $0 13m
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL Yes $0 13m
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL Yes $0 15m
Will Alpine be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL Yes $0 19m
Will Aston Martin be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL Yes $0 23m
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY Yes $1 25m
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY Yes $1 25m
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY Yes $0 26m
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY Yes $0 26m
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY Yes $0 26m
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY Yes $0 26m
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY Yes $0 26m
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY Yes $0 26m
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL Yes $0 26m
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY Yes $0 27m
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY Yes $0 27m
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY Yes $0 27m
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY Yes $0 27m
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY Yes $0 27m
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY Yes $0 27m
Will Audi be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL Yes $0 27m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 2 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 2 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
all 2 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover1533.0 tr/day
realistic slip~18%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -9.6% 0% -9.6%
10% -18.2% 0% -18.2%
15% ← realistic here -26.1% 0% -26.1%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $5,505.07 · official $5,505.08 (match) · 3500 history records