Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T18:20:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
43 0x43ea…1d36 sports 34 markets active 1h ago coverage 31d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$26 (+8%) realized +$4 · open +$22
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +17% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +6% what you keep after slip
Net edge+6%after slip
Net WR48%break-even
Win rate48%16W / 17L
Drawdown55%max
Avg bet$10per market
Trades / day1.9pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$80now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days+$17
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 96% +$46
crypto 4% $0
other 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)+6.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 31 +16.0% +4.9% 48% 48% -3.6%
≤90d 33 +17.3% +6.1% 48% 48% -2.5%
all 33 +17.3% +6.1% 48% 48% -2.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +6.1% 48% -2.5%
10% -4.0% 45% -11.8%
15% -13.3% 36% -20.3%
20% -21.8% 33% -28.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 24% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +8% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +17% · $-wt +8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +16% → late +19% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$5 · ×1.36 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.28 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

31d coverage
Net worth$80
Realized+$4
Unrealized+$22
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses16 / 17
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions1
Markets (closed)33 / 34
History coverage31d
Avg bet$10
Trades / day1.9
Drawdown55%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 33 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Over 55¢ 76¢ $57 $80 +$22 (+39%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 10 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
América de Cali vs. CSyD Macará: O/U 1.5 May 29 $11 −$11 -99%
Club Cerro Porteño vs. CS Cristal: O/U 1.5 May 29 $4 +$7 +180%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET May 25 $1 −$1 -95%
T20 Series Sri Lanka A vs New Zealand A, Women: Sri Lanka A vs New Zea May 25 $5 $0 -4%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - May 25, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET May 25 $1 −$1 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - May 25, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET May 25 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 11PM ET May 25 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin above 76,800 on May 25, 12AM ET? May 25 $3 −$3 -94%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 24, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET May 25 $1 +$9 +831%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 24, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET May 25 $3 −$3 -94%
Pumas de la UNAM vs. CF Cruz Azul: O/U 1.5 May 25 $5 −$5 -98%
Los Angeles FC vs. Seattle Sounders FC: O/U 2.5 May 25 $12 −$7 -60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET May 25 $1 $0 +17%
CR Vasco da Gama vs. Red Bull Bragantino: O/U 1.5 May 25 $8 +$5 +65%
Avaí FC vs. Goiás EC: O/U 1.5 May 24 $4 +$4 +89%
SC Corinthians Paulista vs. CA Mineiro: O/U 1.5 May 24 $22 −$19 -84%
Torino FC vs. Juventus FC: O/U 2.5 May 24 $12 +$10 +88%
Hellas Verona FC vs. AS Roma: O/U 1.5 May 24 $20 −$8 -42%
West Ham United FC vs. Leeds United FC: O/U 1.5 May 24 $9 +$12 +137%
Getafe CF vs. CA Osasuna: O/U 1.5 May 23 $4 −$4 -98%
Beijing Guoan FC vs. Henan FC: O/U 1.5 May 23 $3 +$1 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET May 23 $1 $0 +26%
Thunder vs. Spurs: O/U 225.5 May 23 $1 −$1 -98%
CR Flamengo vs. Estudiantes de La Plata: O/U 1.5 May 21 $8 −$7 -99%
Santos FC vs. CA San Lorenzo de Almagro: O/U 2.5 May 20 $4 +$4 +98%
Club Olimpia vs. CR Vasco da Gama: O/U 1.5 May 20 $3 +$1 +52%
Independiente del Valle vs. Club Libertad: O/U 1.5 May 20 $42 +$10 +24%
CA Boca Juniors vs. Cruzeiro EC: O/U 1.5 May 20 $29 +$12 +42%
CD Coquimbo Unido vs. CD Tolima: O/U 1.5 May 19 $19 +$10 +52%
Chelsea FC vs. Tottenham Hotspur FC: O/U 2.5 May 19 $10 +$9 +93%
AFC Bournemouth vs. Manchester City FC: O/U 2.5 May 19 $15 −$6 -38%
Pumas de la UNAM vs. CF Pachuca: O/U 1.5 May 18 $15 $0 -3%
Stade Brestois 29 vs. Angers SCO: O/U 1.5 May 17 $7 +$6 +79%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 55¢ $58 1h
América de Cali vs. CSyD Macará: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 58¢ $11 19d
Club Cerro Porteño vs. CS Cristal: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $11 19d
Club Cerro Porteño vs. CS Cristal: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 35¢ $4 19d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET BUY Up 21¢ $1 23d
T20 Series Sri Lanka A vs New Zealand A, Women: Sri Lanka A vs New Zea SELL New Zealand A 53¢ $5 23d
Hyperliquid Up or Down - May 25, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET BUY Up 6¢ $1 23d
Dogecoin Up or Down - May 25, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET BUY Up 3¢ $1 23d
Dogecoin Up or Down - May 25, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET BUY Up 3¢ $0 23d
Dogecoin Up or Down - May 25, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET BUY Up 3¢ $0 23d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 11PM ET BUY Up 9¢ $1 23d
T20 Series Sri Lanka A vs New Zealand A, Women: Sri Lanka A vs New Zea BUY New Zealand A 53¢ $5 23d
Bitcoin above 76,800 on May 25, 12AM ET? BUY No 6¢ $2 23d
Bitcoin above 76,800 on May 25, 12AM ET? BUY No 8¢ $1 23d
Ethereum Up or Down - May 24, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $10 23d
Ethereum Up or Down - May 24, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET BUY Down 10¢ $1 23d
Ethereum Up or Down - May 24, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET BUY Up 3¢ $3 23d
Pumas de la UNAM vs. CF Cruz Azul: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 22¢ $5 23d
Los Angeles FC vs. Seattle Sounders FC: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 25¢ $5 23d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $1 23d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET BUY Up 83¢ $1 23d
Los Angeles FC vs. Seattle Sounders FC: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 61¢ $12 23d
CR Vasco da Gama vs. Red Bull Bragantino: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $13 23d
CR Vasco da Gama vs. Red Bull Bragantino: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 60¢ $8 23d
Avaí FC vs. Goiás EC: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 70¢ $8 23d
Avaí FC vs. Goiás EC: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 36¢ $4 23d
SC Corinthians Paulista vs. CA Mineiro: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 10¢ $4 23d
SC Corinthians Paulista vs. CA Mineiro: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 61¢ $22 23d
Torino FC vs. Juventus FC: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 99¢ $0 23d
Torino FC vs. Juventus FC: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 99¢ $22 23d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $79.63 · official $79.63 (match) · 61 history records