Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T16:46:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
43 0x43ed…7974 crypto 12 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$5 (+1%) realized +$5 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate50%6W / 6L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$75per market
Trades / day25.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$90
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-8.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 +1.5% -8.2% 50% 50% -18.8%
≤30d 12 +1.5% -8.2% 50% 50% -18.8%
≤90d 12 +1.5% -8.2% 50% 50% -18.8%
all 12 +1.5% -8.2% 50% 50% -18.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover25.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -8.2% 50% -18.8%
10% ← realistic here -17.0% 50% -26.6%
15% -25.0% 42% -33.7%
20% -32.3% 33% -40.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 29% · top 2 55% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -10% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt -10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -10% → late +13% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$67 vs −$82 · ×0.82 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.82 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$5
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses6 / 6
Open positions0
Markets (closed)12 / 12
History coverage1d
Avg bet$75
Trades / day25.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 12 Trades
no open positions (4 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 24 $70 −$66 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 24 $156 −$150 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 24 $127 −$120 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 24 $52 +$104 +198%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 24 $124 +$116 +94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 24 $72 +$61 +84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 24 $51 +$17 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 24 $52 −$50 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 24 $36 +$14 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 24 $52 −$52 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 24 $52 −$52 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 24 $52 +$88 +169%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET BUY Up 4¢ $17 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET BUY Up 16¢ $53 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET BUY Up 22¢ $53 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $103 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET BUY Up 6¢ $21 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET BUY Up 20¢ $53 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET BUY Up 18¢ $53 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET BUY Up 32¢ $52 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET BUY Up 27¢ $21 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET BUY Up 56¢ $52 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET BUY Up 66¢ $51 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $21 39m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $52 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET BUY Up 73¢ $51 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET BUY Up 81¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET BUY Up 85¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET BUY Up 67¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET BUY Up 21¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET BUY Up 42¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET BUY Up 69¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $26 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Up 28¢ $26 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 37 history records