Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T20:15:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
43 0x43f0…1b3d other 267 markets active 0h ago coverage 618d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$4,209 (-0%) realized −$4,259 · open +$50
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate97%258W / 8L
Whale WR100%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$5,132per market
Trades / day2.4pace
Kalshi-fit33%portable
Net worth$3,608now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$149
7 days+$162
14 days+$232
30 days+$521
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 83% +$3,041
world 12% −$4,558
crypto 4% −$2,753
finance 1% +$22
politics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-10.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +0.9% -8.7% 100% 0% -8.7%
≤30d 18 +0.5% -9.1% 100% 0% -9.2%
≤90d 107 -0.4% -9.9% 98% 0% -9.8%
all 266 -0.5% -10.0% 97% 2% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.4 tr/day
realistic slip~10%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -10.0% 2% -9.8%
10% ← realistic here -18.6% 1% -18.4%
15% -26.4% 1% -26.3%
20% -33.7% 1% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 12% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
98% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 100% (≥$7,718) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +1% → late -2% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
4.7 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$16 vs −$1,046 · ×0.02 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.49 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

618d coverage
Net worth$3,608
Realized−$4,259
Unrealized+$50
Win rate (resolved)97%
Wins / losses258 / 8
Whale WR (big bets)100%
Open positions1
Markets (closed)266 / 267
History coverage618d
Avg bet$5,132
Trades / day2.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit33%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 266 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? No 96¢ 97¢ $3,558 $3,608 +$50 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US x Iran permanent peace deal by October 31, 2026? Jun 18 $1,000 +$13 +1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? Jun 18 $12,145 +$137 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 16 $2,781 +$3 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 15 $990 +$10 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 11 $4,990 +$10 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 10 $9,313 +$9 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 09 $2,497 +$5 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $1,996 +$4 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 08 $1,972 +$28 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 06 $4,990 +$10 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 05 $4,058 +$4 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 04 $7,945 +$55 +1%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $15,504 +$72 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? May 29 $9,914 +$86 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? May 26 $9,912 +$10 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? May 25 $14,985 +$15 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? May 22 $15,366 +$29 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? May 21 $15,332 +$22 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? May 19 $4,985 +$15 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? May 19 $9,990 +$10 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? May 18 $2,814 +$6 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? May 18 $15,278 +$22 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? May 17 $11,907 +$93 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? May 16 $3,286 +$3 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 60-79 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? May 15 $15,166 +$14 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 20-39 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? May 14 $15,164 +$15 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 0-19 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? May 13 $15,146 +$14 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 40-59 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026? May 12 $15,121 +$29 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from May 5 to May 12, 2026? May 11 $15,033 +$44 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 60-79 tweets from May 5 to May 12, 2026? May 10 $9,980 +$20 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 40-59 tweets from May 5 to May 12, 2026? May 08 $9,990 +$5 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026? May 08 $5,231 −$5,231 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026? May 07 $2,896 +$104 +4%
Will Elon Musk post 0-19 tweets from May 5 to May 12, 2026? May 07 $8,991 +$9 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026? May 06 $6,147 +$18 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from May 4 to May 6, 2026? May 06 $1,308 +$1 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from April 28 to May 5, 2026? May 05 $10,270 +$20 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from April 28 to May 5, 2026? May 05 $9,736 +$101 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 60-79 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026? May 04 $10,258 +$15 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from April 28 to May 5, 2026? May 04 $8,197 +$23 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 40-59 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026? May 03 $6,792 +$6 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from April 28 to May 5, 2026? May 03 $8,160 +$36 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 60-79 tweets from April 28 to May 5, 2026? May 03 $13,956 +$14 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from April 30 to May 2, 2026? May 02 $596 +$1 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 165-189 tweets from April 30 to May 2, 2026? May 02 $369 +$1 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 0-19 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026? May 02 $2,997 +$3 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from April 24 to May 1, 2026? May 01 $7,810 +$22 +0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in April? May 01 $4,975 +$25 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from April 24 to May 1, 2026? May 01 $7,079 +$7 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from April 21 to April 28, 2026? Apr 28 $1,990 +$10 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $21 14m
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $18 38m
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $20 55m
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $6 1h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $5 1h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $15 1h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $882 1h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $980 26h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 100¢ $313 2d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 100¢ $314 2d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 95¢ $5 2d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 100¢ $249 2d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 95¢ $5 2d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 95¢ $28 2d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 100¢ $20 2d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 100¢ $20 2d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 100¢ $31 2d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 100¢ $178 2d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 100¢ $71 2d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 95¢ $570 2d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 95¢ $610 2d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $392 2d
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $2,781 2d
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $380 3d
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $312 3d
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $159 3d
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $1 3d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 99¢ $986 3d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 99¢ $76 3d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 99¢ $76 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3,608.24 · official $3,608.24 (match) · 1758 history records