Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T21:32:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
43 0x43f0…a0db crypto 38 markets active 0h ago coverage 56d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialistP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)
Total PnL −$582 (-4%) realized −$628 · open +$46
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -13% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate53%19W / 17L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$379per market
Trades / day1.3pace
Fees−$94est.
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$2,547now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 56d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 76% −$2,304
sports 22% +$2,578
crypto 2% −$24
politics 0% −$21
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-21.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +5.9% -4.2% 50% 50% -6.6%
≤30d 18 -8.3% -17.1% 50% 39% -7.3%
≤90d 36 -12.8% -21.1% 53% 42% -7.5%
all 36 -12.8% -21.1% 53% 42% -7.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -21.1% 42% -7.5%
10% -28.7% 31% -16.3%
15% -35.6% 22% -24.4%
20% -41.9% 14% -31.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 65% · top 2 98% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
21% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -13% · $-wt +2% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -17% → late -8% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$139 vs −$144 · ×0.96 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.07 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

56d coverage
Net worth$2,547
Realized−$628
Unrealized+$46
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses19 / 17
Est. fees paid−$94
Open positions2
Markets (closed)36 / 38
History coverage56d
Avg bet$379
Trades / day1.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 36 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Yes 81¢ 82¢ $2,500 $2,546 +$46 (+2%)
Will Futuro Nazionale get more votes than Lega in the next Italian general elections? Yes 68¢ 62¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-8%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $1,025 +$872 +85%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $2,148 +$1,706 +79%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $4,468 −$2,319 -52%
Claudio Lotito sells Lazio in 2026? Jun 11 $13 −$12 -89%
Will Elly Schlein be the next Prime Minister of Italy? Jun 10 $2 −$1 -44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 01 $61 −$60 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 01 $42 +$20 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 01 $46 −$5 -11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 01 $44 +$4 +8%
Will Xavi Hernandez be the next manager of SSC Napoli? Jun 01 $1 $0 -0%
Will Maurizio Sarri be the next manager of SSC Napoli? Jun 01 $10 −$5 -49%
Will Enzo Maresca be the next manager of Manchester City FC? Jun 01 $5 $0 +3%
Will Andoni Iraola be the next manager of AC Milan? Jun 01 $5 −$5 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET May 29 $10 +$3 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET May 28 $20 +$8 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET May 28 $10 +$9 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET May 24 $1 $0 +20%
Will Andrea Martella win the 2026 Venice mayoral election? May 24 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Newcastle United FC win on 2026-05-17? May 17 $2 $0 +14%
Spread: Newcastle United FC (-1.5) May 17 $1 $0 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET May 17 $3 −$3 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET May 17 $1 +$2 +198%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET May 17 $1 −$1 -94%
Will Lazio win Coppa Italia? May 13 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET May 01 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET May 01 $5 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Apr 30 $5 −$4 -84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Apr 30 $5 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Apr 30 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Apr 30 $15 +$3 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Apr 29 $9 +$5 +57%
Etna eruption with VEI 2+ in 2026? Apr 29 $5 −$3 -64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Apr 29 $14 +$3 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Apr 28 $9 +$3 +35%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? Apr 28 $1 $0 +26%
Vesuvius eruption with 1+ VEI in 2026? Apr 28 $5 −$4 -83%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 81¢ $2,514 14m
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? SELL Yes 31¢ $1,897 52m
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 16¢ $1,025 1h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 78¢ $4,994 1h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 59¢ $3,849 1h
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 55¢ $2,148 2h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 38¢ $2,149 2h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $4,468 5h
Will Futuro Nazionale get more votes than Lega in the next Italian gen BUY Yes 68¢ $1 5d
Claudio Lotito sells Lazio in 2026? SELL No 43¢ $1 6d
Claudio Lotito sells Lazio in 2026? BUY No 49¢ $1 7d
Will Elly Schlein be the next Prime Minister of Italy? SELL Yes 11¢ $1 7d
Will Elly Schlein be the next Prime Minister of Italy? BUY Yes 19¢ $1 13d
Will Elly Schlein be the next Prime Minister of Italy? BUY Yes 19¢ $1 15d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET BUY Up 87¢ $61 16d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Up 66¢ $31 16d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Up 67¢ $8 16d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Up 66¢ $3 16d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET BUY Down 60¢ $26 16d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $21 16d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET BUY Down 56¢ $3 16d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET BUY Down 60¢ $10 16d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET BUY Up 67¢ $10 16d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET BUY Up 61¢ $21 16d
Will Xavi Hernandez be the next manager of SSC Napoli? SELL No 99¢ $1 16d
Will Maurizio Sarri be the next manager of SSC Napoli? SELL No 99¢ $5 16d
Will Enzo Maresca be the next manager of Manchester City FC? SELL Yes 99¢ $5 16d
Will Maurizio Sarri be the next manager of SSC Napoli? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 16d
Will Andoni Iraola be the next manager of AC Milan? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 16d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET BUY Up 77¢ $10 19d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,547.22 · official $2,547.22 (match) · 94 history records