Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T20:01:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

43
0x43f3…293c
sports · 518 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
+$2,888 +4%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$1,593 · open −$708
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$4,592
Realized+$1,593
Unrealized−$708
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses205 / 238
Whale WR (big bets)57%
Est. fees paid−$893
Open positions75
Markets (closed)443 / 518
History coverage9d
Avg bet$126
Trades / day165.3
Drawdown92%
Kalshi-fit98%
Chart Positions 75 History 443 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$59
7 days+$220
14 days+$1,593
30 days+$1,593
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Tessa Brockmann vs Alycia Parks Tessa Brockmann 12¢ 76¢ $126 $768 +$642 (+510%)
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Diane Parry vs Ella Seidel Diane Parry 63¢ 91¢ $106 $153 +$47 (+44%)
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Katerina Siniakova vs Yue Yuan Katerina Siniakova 71¢ 86¢ $126 $153 +$27 (+21%)
Houston Astros vs. Kansas City Royals Kansas City Royals 61¢ 95¢ $83 $129 +$46 (+56%)
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Petra Marcinko vs Aoi Ito Aoi Ito 26¢ 26¢ $126 $129 +$2 (+2%)
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics: O/U 14.5 Over 46¢ 90¢ $55 $108 +$53 (+97%)
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Milwaukee Brewers Milwaukee Brewers 48¢ 96¢ $54 $107 +$53 (+99%)
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Petra Marcinko vs Aoi Ito Petra Marcinko 88¢ 74¢ $122 $102 −$20 (-16%)
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics: O/U 13.5 Over 52¢ 93¢ $54 $97 +$43 (+79%)
Valorant: G2 Esports vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner FUT Esports 47¢ 100¢ $43 $91 +$48 (+113%)
Washington Mystics vs. New York Liberty: O/U 165.5 Under 51¢ 83¢ $54 $89 +$34 (+63%)
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago White Sox Chicago White Sox 32¢ 96¢ $28 $85 +$57 (+202%)
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner Natus Vincere 46¢ 100¢ $39 $85 +$46 (+117%)
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins St. Louis Cardinals 55¢ 70¢ $63 $81 +$18 (+29%)
Spread: Atlanta Braves (-1.5) New York Mets 65¢ 98¢ $53 $79 +$26 (+50%)
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 8.5 Under 56¢ 72¢ $55 $71 +$16 (+29%)
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Team Falcons 46¢ 64¢ $51 $71 +$19 (+38%)
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 8.5 Over 44¢ 58¢ $50 $66 +$16 (+33%)
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 9.5 Under 48¢ 58¢ $54 $65 +$12 (+22%)
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 10.5 Under 80¢ 94¢ $55 $64 +$10 (+17%)
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays Toronto Blue Jays 34¢ 50¢ $43 $64 +$21 (+49%)
Detroit Tigers vs. Cleveland Guardians Detroit Tigers 51¢ 53¢ $53 $55 +$2 (+4%)
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 7.5 Over 64¢ 64¢ $55 $55 −$0 (-1%)
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 9.5 Over 46¢ 46¢ $55 $55 −$1 (-1%)
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 7.5 Over 70¢ 69¢ $55 $54 −$1 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Valorant: G2 Esports vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $79 −$74 -94%
LoL: Galions vs Eintracht Spandau (BO5) - EMEA Masters Playoffs Jun 14 $29 −$27 -93%
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 6.5 Jun 14 $70 −$57 -81%
Spread: Miami Marlins (-2.5) Jun 14 $65 −$60 -92%
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 7.5 Jun 14 $58 +$50 +86%
Spread: Miami Marlins (-1.5) Jun 14 $28 +$5 +17%
Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-2.5) Jun 14 $1 $0 +31%
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 14 $74 −$39 -53%
Spread: Germany (-2.5) Jun 14 $26 +$9 +34%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 5.5 Jun 14 $4 +$5 +152%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $38 +$29 +76%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $26 +$13 +50%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $27 +$5 +18%
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 5.5 Jun 14 $61 +$27 +44%
Games Total: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $53 +$45 +86%
LoL: Solary vs UCAM Esports Club (BO5) - EMEA Masters Playoffs Jun 14 $27 +$2 +8%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Sta Jun 14 $80 +$24 +30%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $13 −$10 -78%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $24 +$26 +109%
Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 8.5 Jun 14 $13 −$13 -97%
Valorant: Leviatán Esports vs Team Heretics (BO3) - VCT Masters London Jun 14 $148 +$47 +32%
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Atlanta Braves vs. Ne Jun 14 $17 +$3 +16%
LoL: Galions vs Eintracht Spandau - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $34 +$17 +50%
LoL: Solary vs UCAM Esports Club - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $5 −$1 -14%
Nottingham 2: Shintaro Mochizuki vs Michael Zheng Jun 14 $107 −$54 -50%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 7.5 Jun 14 $1 −$1 -99%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 6.5 Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Dota 2: 4ikibamboni vs Power Rangers - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $13 +$7 +57%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $81 −$25 -31%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $76 +$30 +39%
Valorant: Leviatán Esports vs Team Heretics - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $117 −$21 -18%
LoL: RED Canids vs LOS - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $11 +$5 +50%
LoL: Galions vs Eintracht Spandau - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $38 +$2 +5%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $26 −$26 -98%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $99 +$46 +46%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $157 +$87 +56%
Cattolica: Jesper de Jong vs Roberto Carballes Baena Jun 14 $52 +$9 +17%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $184 −$53 -29%
Halle Open, Qualification: Mattia Bellucci vs Alex Bolt Jun 14 $74 −$22 -30%
Games Total: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $53 −$53 -99%
Nottingham Open, Qualification: Antonia Ruzic vs Taylah Preston Jun 14 $84 +$16 +19%
Nottingham Open, Qualification: Himeno Sakatsume vs Alicia Dudeney Jun 14 $127 −$74 -58%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $158 +$74 +47%
Nottingham 2: Nicolai Budkov Kjaer vs Mackenzie McDonald Jun 14 $54 −$52 -98%
Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs BetBoom Team (+1.5) Jun 14 $54 −$53 -98%
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Rinky Hijikata vs Marcos Giron Jun 14 $106 +$40 +38%
Libema Open: Kamil Majchrzak vs Alex de Minaur Jun 14 $188 +$57 +30%
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 8.5 Jun 14 $12 −$12 -98%
Lyon: Felix Balshaw vs David Jorda Sanchis Jun 14 $112 −$35 -31%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $187 −$184 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 98% +$943
other 2% −$58
crypto 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-1.5) BUY Chicago White Sox 93¢ $3 8m
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics BUY Colorado Rockies 44¢ $24 11m
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-1.5) BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 46¢ $19 21m
Spread: Arizona Diamondbacks (-1.5) BUY Cincinnati Reds 75¢ $23 26m
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago White Sox BUY Chicago White Sox 28¢ $7 26m
Modena: Katarzyna Kawa vs Lucia Bronzetti BUY Katarzyna Kawa 47¢ $23 26m
Atlanta Dream vs. Toronto Tempo: O/U 171.5 BUY Over 65¢ $23 26m
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-2.5) BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 45¢ $23 26m
San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles BUY San Diego Padres 77¢ $43 28m
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 7.5 BUY Over 75¢ $48 28m
Spread: Minnesota Twins (-1.5) BUY St. Louis Cardinals 89¢ $48 29m
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 8.5 BUY Over 64¢ $48 29m
Spread: Minnesota Twins (-2.5) BUY St. Louis Cardinals 96¢ $48 29m
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 6.5 BUY Over 91¢ $48 29m
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins BUY St. Louis Cardinals 74¢ $44 29m
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins BUY St. Louis Cardinals 35¢ $20 36m
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 9.5 BUY Over 41¢ $25 36m
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 53¢ $25 36m
Joventut vs. Valencia BUY Valencia 89¢ $25 36m
Houston Astros vs. Kansas City Royals BUY Kansas City Royals 94¢ $25 36m
Washington Mystics vs. New York Liberty BUY New York Liberty 86¢ $25 36m
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 26¢ $25 36m
Spread: Minnesota Twins (-1.5) BUY Minnesota Twins 36¢ $25 36m
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 75¢ $17 36m
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) BUY Netherlands 24¢ $22 36m
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner BUY Team Falcons 49¢ $2 1h
Counter-Strike: Ursa vs GenOne - Map 2 Winner BUY GenOne 66¢ $47 1h
Counter-Strike: Ursa vs GenOne - Map 2 Winner BUY GenOne 87¢ $1 1h
Spread: Miami Marlins (-2.5) BUY Pittsburgh Pirates 28¢ $1 1h
Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 8.5 BUY Under 10¢ $13 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-10.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 427 -1.5% -10.9% 46% 41% -9.2%
≤30d 443 -1.0% -10.4% 46% 42% -7.2%
≤90d 443 -1.0% -10.4% 46% 42% -7.2%
all 443 -1.0% -10.4% 46% 42% -7.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover165.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -10.4% 42% -7.2%
10% ← realistic here -19.0% 36% -16.0%
15% -26.8% 28% -24.2%
20% -34.0% 22% -31.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4,591.90 · official $4,597.43 (match) · 1827 history records