Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T19:51:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

43
0x43f3…f3cc
other · 33 markets active 1h ago
0.5score
−$34 -11%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$34 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$0
Realized−$34
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)0%
Wins / losses0 / 33
Open positions0
Markets (closed)33 / 33
History coverage546d
Avg bet$9
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit52%
Chart Positions 0 History 33 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Aston Villa win the UEFA Champions League? Yes 3¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Orioles vs. Mariners Mariners 54¢ 0¢ $33 $0 −$33 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 14 $5 $0 -0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 21 $5 $0 -0%
Will JB Pritzker win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 27 $6 $0 -0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Feb 21 $1 $0 +0%
Will the Carolina Panthers win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 24 $5 $0 -0%
Will Tottenham win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Nov 26 $6 $0 -0%
Will the San Francisco 49ers win Super Bowl 2026? Oct 25 $1 $0 +0%
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win Super Bowl 2026? Oct 02 $5 $0 +0%
Will the Chicago Bears win Super Bowl 2026? Aug 25 $3 $0 +0%
Will the Seattle Kraken win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Aug 25 $9 $0 +0%
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2025 World Series? Aug 14 $5 $0 -0%
Will the Saints win the NFC Championship? Jul 23 $5 $0 -0%
Will the Bears win the NFC Championship? Jul 17 $1 $0 +0%
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win Super Bowl 2026? Jul 16 $5 $0 -0%
Will Sporting CP win the UEFA Champions League? Jul 16 $32 $0 -0%
Aston Villa wins the Premier League? Jul 16 $0 $0 +0%
Will Celtic win the UEFA Champions League? Jun 15 $8 $0 -0%
Will the Miami Marlins win the 2025 World Series? Jun 15 $5 $0 -0%
Will the Brooklyn Nets win the 2025 NBA Finals? Jun 15 $0 $0 +0%
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2025 World Series? Jun 08 $5 $0 -0%
Orioles vs. Mariners Jun 04 $33 −$33 -100%
Will Ethereum reach $3500 in May? May 19 $7 $0 -0%
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after June 2025 meeting? May 10 $8 $0 -0%
Will the Commanders win Super Bowl 2025? May 10 $1 $0 +0%
Will San Marino win Eurovision 2025? Apr 22 $7 $0 -0%
Tottenham Hotspur wins the Premier League? Apr 22 $9 $0 -0%
Will Bayer Leverkusen win the UEFA Champions League? Apr 11 $1 $0 +0%
Will Aston Villa win the UEFA Champions League? Mar 24 $1 $0 -2%
Will Slovenia win Eurovision 2025? Mar 23 $7 $0 +0%
Newcastle United wins the Premier League? Feb 27 $8 $0 +0%
Will the Montreal Canadiens win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Feb 11 $79 $0 -0%
Will the Detroit Red Wings win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Dec 25 $8 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago Bulls win the 2025 NBA Finals? Dec 15 $18 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 50% $0
sports 39% −$34
politics 6% $0
economics 3% $0
crypto 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $5 1h
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $5 1h
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $5 24d
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $5 24d
Will JB Pritzker win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $5 48d
Will JB Pritzker win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $5 48d
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 2¢ $0 113d
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 2¢ $0 113d
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 2¢ $0 113d
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 2¢ $0 113d
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 2¢ $0 113d
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 114d
Will JB Pritzker win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 143d
Will JB Pritzker win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 143d
Will the Carolina Panthers win Super Bowl 2026? SELL No 99¢ $5 171d
Will the Carolina Panthers win Super Bowl 2026? BUY No 99¢ $5 171d
Will Tottenham win the 2025–26 English Premier League? SELL No 100¢ $6 200d
Will Tottenham win the 2025–26 English Premier League? BUY No 100¢ $6 200d
Will the San Francisco 49ers win Super Bowl 2026? SELL Yes 4¢ $0 232d
Will the San Francisco 49ers win Super Bowl 2026? SELL Yes 4¢ $0 232d
Will the San Francisco 49ers win Super Bowl 2026? SELL Yes 4¢ $1 232d
Will the San Francisco 49ers win Super Bowl 2026? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 232d
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win Super Bowl 2026? SELL No 99¢ $5 254d
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win Super Bowl 2026? BUY No 99¢ $5 255d
Will the Chicago Bears win Super Bowl 2026? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 293d
Will the Chicago Bears win Super Bowl 2026? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 293d
Will the Chicago Bears win Super Bowl 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $2 293d
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2025 World Series? SELL No 100¢ $5 304d
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2025 World Series? BUY No 100¢ $5 304d
Will the Saints win the NFC Championship? SELL No 99¢ $5 326d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-15.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 2 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 3 -0.1% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
all 33 -6.1% -15.1% 0% 0% -19.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.1% 0% -19.7%
10% -23.2% 0% -27.4%
15% -30.6% 0% -34.4%
20% -37.4% 0% -40.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 99 history records