Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T09:40:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
43 0x43f4…9ce6 crypto 204 markets active 2h ago coverage 87d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$196 (-21%) realized −$196 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -20% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -31% what you keep after slip
Net edge-31%after slip
Net WR28%break-even
Win rate42%85W / 119L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$5per market
Trades / day4.8pace
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$1
14 days−$22
30 days−$22
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 83% −$147
other 17% −$62
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +28%
net ROI/market (all)-28.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -4.6% -13.7% 0% 0% -13.7%
≤30d 3 -21.7% -29.1% 33% 33% -35.3%
≤90d 204 -20.4% -28.0% 42% 28% -29.9%
all 204 -20.4% -28.0% 42% 28% -29.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -28.0% 28% -29.9%
10% -34.9% 12% -36.6%
15% -41.2% 10% -42.7%
20% -46.9% 7% -48.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 25% · top 2 34% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -22% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
33% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -20% · $-wt -22% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late -38% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$3 · ×0.6 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.43 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

87d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$196
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses85 / 119
Open positions0
Markets (closed)204 / 204
History coverage87d
Avg bet$5
Trades / day4.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 204 Trades
no open positions (3 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Jun 24 $27 −$1 -5%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $29 −$28 -99%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $21 +$8 +40%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 4, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Apr 04 $6 −$6 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 4, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Apr 04 $6 −$6 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 4AM ET Apr 04 $35 −$21 -62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 3, 8AM ET Apr 04 $54 −$30 -56%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from March 27 to April 3, 2026? Apr 03 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 3, 9AM ET Apr 03 $82 −$7 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 3, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Apr 03 $3 +$1 +41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 3, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET Apr 03 $26 −$4 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 3, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Apr 03 $52 +$3 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 3, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Apr 03 $16 −$15 -90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 3, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Apr 03 $5 +$1 +15%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from March 27 to April 3, 2026? Apr 03 $27 −$27 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from March 27 to April 3, 2026? Apr 02 $19 +$8 +41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 1, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Apr 02 $13 −$6 -48%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from March 27 to April 3, 2026? Apr 02 $22 −$10 -43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 1, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Apr 01 $4 +$3 +74%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 30, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Apr 01 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 30, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Apr 01 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 30, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Apr 01 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from March 24 to March 31, 2026? Apr 01 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 30, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Apr 01 $4 −$4 -100%
Solana Up or Down - March 30, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Apr 01 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 30, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Apr 01 $2 −$2 -100%
XRP Up or Down - March 30, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Mar 30 $3 −$1 -40%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 29, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Mar 29 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 29, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Mar 29 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 29, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Mar 29 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 29, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Mar 29 $1 −$1 -100%
Solana Up or Down - March 29, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Mar 29 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 29, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Mar 29 $1 −$1 -100%
Solana Up or Down - March 29, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Mar 29 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 29, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Mar 29 $1 −$1 -100%
Solana Up or Down - March 29, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Mar 29 $1 −$1 -100%
Solana Up or Down - March 29, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Mar 29 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 29, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Mar 29 $1 −$1 -100%
Solana Up or Down - March 29, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Mar 29 $1 −$1 -100%
Solana Up or Down - March 29, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Mar 29 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 29, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Mar 29 $1 −$1 -100%
Solana Up or Down - March 29, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Mar 29 $1 −$1 -100%
Solana Up or Down - March 29, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Mar 29 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 29, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Mar 29 $1 −$1 -100%
Solana Up or Down - March 29, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Mar 29 $1 −$1 -100%
Solana Up or Down - March 29, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Mar 29 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 29, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Mar 29 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 29, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Mar 29 $5 −$5 -100%
Solana Up or Down - March 29, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Mar 29 $11 +$7 +67%
Solana Up or Down - March 29, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Mar 29 $22 +$7 +33%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 52¢ $25 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 53¢ $27 2h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 76¢ $29 7d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 71¢ $21 8d
Ethereum Up or Down - April 4, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET BUY Down 41¢ $6 80d
Ethereum Up or Down - April 4, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $6 80d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 4AM ET SELL Up 0¢ $0 81d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 4AM ET BUY Up 38¢ $13 81d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 4AM ET SELL Up 37¢ $13 81d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 4AM ET BUY Up 60¢ $22 81d
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from March 27 to April 3, 2026? BUY Yes 51¢ $7 81d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 3, 9AM ET SELL Up 46¢ $7 81d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 3, 9AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $8 81d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 3, 9AM ET SELL Down 50¢ $8 81d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 3, 9AM ET BUY Down 63¢ $10 81d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 3, 9AM ET SELL Up 41¢ $11 81d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 3, 9AM ET BUY Up 38¢ $10 81d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 3, 9AM ET SELL Down 65¢ $11 81d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 3, 9AM ET BUY Down 60¢ $10 81d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 3, 9AM ET SELL Up 39¢ $10 81d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 3, 9AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $13 81d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 3, 9AM ET SELL Down 52¢ $14 81d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 3, 9AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $15 81d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 3, 9AM ET SELL Up 48¢ $15 81d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 3, 9AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $16 81d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 3, 8AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $2 81d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 3, 8AM ET SELL Up 2¢ $2 81d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 3, 8AM ET BUY Up 35¢ $35 81d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 3, 8AM ET SELL Down 41¢ $10 81d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 3, 8AM ET BUY Down 18¢ $2 81d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 575 history records