Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T13:28:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
43 0x43f6…ee3e sports 215 markets active 0h ago coverage 134d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$3,268 (-12%) realized −$3,071 · open −$197
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR18%break-even
Win rate74%154W / 53L
Whale WR71%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$126per market
Trades / day2.3pace
Fees−$83est.
Kalshi-fit65%portable
Net worth$928now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$461
7 days−$2,658
14 days−$2,783
30 days−$2,783
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 38% −$858
sports 33% −$1,321
crypto 19% +$175
world 6% −$1,110
weather 3% −$142
politics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +18%
net ROI/market (all)-18.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 98 -10.9% -19.4% 70% 18% -27.4%
≤30d 185 -8.1% -16.9% 77% 17% -20.3%
≤90d 185 -8.1% -16.9% 77% 17% -20.3%
all 207 -9.5% -18.1% 74% 18% -20.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -18.1% 18% -20.5%
10% -25.9% 14% -28.1%
15% -33.1% 12% -35.0%
20% -39.6% 8% -41.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 27% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -12% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
76% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt -12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 71% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -9% → late -10% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$21 vs −$120 · ×0.18 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.52 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

134d coverage
Net worth$928
Realized−$3,071
Unrealized−$197
Win rate (resolved)74%
Wins / losses154 / 53
Whale WR (big bets)71%
Est. fees paid−$83
Open positions8
Markets (closed)207 / 215
History coverage134d
Avg bet$126
Trades / day2.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit65%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 8 History 207 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 3 Côte d'Ivoire? No 99¢ 99¢ $300 $300 −$0 (-0%)
Exact Score: Ecuador 0 - 3 Curaçao? No 100¢ 100¢ $200 $200 +$0 (+0%)
Exact Score: Ecuador 3 - 3 Curaçao? No 100¢ 100¢ $200 $200 −$0 (-0%)
Exact Score: Netherlands 3 - 3 Sweden? No 98¢ 98¢ $200 $199 −$1 (-0%)
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Leviatán Esports - Map 1 Winner Leviatán Esports 65¢ 94¢ $10 $14 +$4 (+45%)
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Leviatán Esports - Map 2 Winner Leviatán Esports 61¢ 58¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-4%)
Grass Court Championships: Aryna Sabalenka vs Jessica Pegula Jessica Pegula 79¢ 80¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+1%)
Dota 2: OG vs InterActive Philippines - Game 1 Winner InterActive Philippines 66¢ 0¢ $200 $0 −$200 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 38 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: Camila Osorio vs Ajla Tomljanovi Jun 20 $10 +$2 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 20 $21 +$13 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 20 $619 +$488 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 20 $207 −$200 -97%
Set Handicap: Sabalenka (-1.5) vs Pegula (+1.5) Jun 20 $100 −$7 -7%
Bad Homburg Open, Qualification: Diane Parry vs Aoi Ito Jun 20 $10 $0 +2%
Bad Homburg Open, Qualification: Irina-Camelia Begu vs Tamara Korpatsc Jun 20 $10 +$1 +8%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: 1st Half O/U 5.5 Total Corners Jun 20 $5 $0 +7%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 12.5 Jun 20 $10 +$1 +13%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $20 +$13 +62%
Exact Score: Türkiye 3 - 3 Paraguay? Jun 20 $600 +$4 +1%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $10 +$4 +40%
Spread: Türkiye (-4.5) Jun 20 $200 +$1 +0%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $10 +$1 +11%
Boston Red Sox vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 10.5 Jun 20 $10 +$1 +12%
Boston Red Sox vs. Seattle Mariners Jun 20 $10 $0 +1%
Minnesota Lynx vs. Golden State Valkyries: O/U 167.5 Jun 20 $10 +$7 +70%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Athletics Jun 20 $10 −$10 -100%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 11.5 Jun 20 $304 +$149 +49%
San Diego Padres vs. Texas Rangers Jun 20 $10 $0 +3%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $202 −$95 -47%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 12.5 Jun 20 $9 +$3 +36%
Cleveland Guardians vs. Houston Astros Jun 20 $10 $0 +2%
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 3 Haiti? Jun 20 $300 +$2 +1%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 5.5 Jun 20 $30 +$18 +60%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 7.5 Jun 20 $10 $0 +2%
Cincinnati Reds vs. New York Yankees Jun 20 $10 $0 +4%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 10.5 Jun 20 $30 −$30 -98%
Toronto Tempo vs. Connecticut Sun Jun 20 $10 −$10 -100%
Brazil vs. Haiti: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $5 −$5 -99%
Exact Score: Scotland 3 - 3 Morocco? Jun 20 $300 +$3 +1%
Exact Score: United States 3 - 3 Australia? Jun 19 $300 +$3 +1%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 0.5 Jun 19 $10 +$1 +7%
HSBC Championships: Ugo Humbert vs Rinky Hijikata Jun 19 $10 $0 +3%
Counter-Strike: WW Team vs CYBERSHOKE Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 19 $10 +$1 +7%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 19 $21 +$6 +30%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof Jun 19 $10 +$1 +7%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 19 $10 +$2 +19%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex - Map 2 Winner Jun 19 $10 +$4 +40%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Jun 19 $507 +$409 +81%
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoff Jun 19 $230 −$226 -98%
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 4 Winner Jun 19 $102 −$100 -98%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Athletics Jun 19 $232 +$1 +0%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 5.5 Jun 19 $100 $0 +0%
Exact Score: Mexico 3 - 3 Korea Republic? Jun 19 $200 $0 +0%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 4.5 Jun 19 $100 +$2 +2%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Kansas City Royals Jun 19 $100 $0 +0%
Exact Score: Switzerland 3 - 3 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 18 $26 −$25 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 18 $53 −$50 -94%
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 3 - 3 Colombia? Jun 18 $200 +$1 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Leviatán Esports - Map 2 Winner BUY Leviatán Esports 61¢ $10 0m
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Leviatán Esports - Map 1 Winner BUY Leviatán Esports 65¢ $10 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET BUY Down 65¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET BUY Down 56¢ $10 1h
Grass Court Championships: Aryna Sabalenka vs Jessica Pegula BUY Jessica Pegula 79¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $206 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $206 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $207 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $207 1h
Grass Court Championships: Aryna Sabalenka vs Jessica Pegula SELL Jessica Pegula 77¢ $441 1h
Grass Court Championships: Aryna Sabalenka vs Jessica Pegula SELL Jessica Pegula 77¢ $285 1h
Grass Court Championships: Aryna Sabalenka vs Jessica Pegula BUY Jessica Pegula 63¢ $607 1h
Dota 2: OG vs InterActive Philippines - Game 1 Winner BUY InterActive Philippines 54¢ $101 2h
Dota 2: OG vs InterActive Philippines - Game 1 Winner BUY InterActive Philippines 84¢ $100 2h
Set Handicap: Sabalenka (-1.5) vs Pegula (+1.5) SELL Pegula 89¢ $93 2h
Set Handicap: Sabalenka (-1.5) vs Pegula (+1.5) BUY Pegula 95¢ $100 2h
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: Camila Osorio vs Ajla Tomljanovi BUY Ajla Tomljanovic 86¢ $10 2h
Bad Homburg Open, Qualification: Irina-Camelia Begu vs Tamara Korpatsc SELL Irina-Camelia Begu 78¢ $11 3h
Bad Homburg Open, Qualification: Diane Parry vs Aoi Ito BUY Diane Parry 98¢ $10 3h
Bad Homburg Open, Qualification: Irina-Camelia Begu vs Tamara Korpatsc BUY Irina-Camelia Begu 71¢ $10 3h
Exact Score: Ecuador 0 - 3 Curaçao? BUY No 100¢ $200 8h
Exact Score: Ecuador 3 - 3 Curaçao? BUY No 100¢ $200 8h
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 3 Côte d'Ivoire? BUY No 99¢ $300 8h
Exact Score: Netherlands 3 - 3 Sweden? BUY No 98¢ $200 8h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 61¢ $20 8h
Spread: Türkiye (-4.5) BUY Paraguay 100¢ $200 9h
Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 12.5 BUY Under 88¢ $10 9h
Boston Red Sox vs. Seattle Mariners BUY Boston Red Sox 99¢ $10 9h
Exact Score: Türkiye 3 - 3 Paraguay? BUY No 100¢ $300 9h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 71¢ $10 9h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $927.96 · official $927.96 (match) · 450 history records