Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T19:49:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
43 0x43f6…6de6 sports 206 markets active 0h ago coverage 88d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$11,756 (-3%) realized −$11,744 · open −$12
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR17%break-even
Win rate77%158W / 47L
Whale WR85%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,636per market
Trades / day10.3pace
Fees−$780est.
Kalshi-fit91%portable
Net worth$2,111now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$793
7 days−$1,092
14 days−$1,092
30 days−$2,536
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 94% −$13,065
other 6% +$359
world 0% +$10
crypto 0% +$7
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +17%
net ROI/market (all)-14.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 41 -6.8% -15.6% 63% 27% -12.1%
≤30d 48 -9.8% -18.4% 62% 25% -14.3%
≤90d 205 -5.2% -14.3% 77% 17% -10.8%
all 205 -5.2% -14.3% 77% 17% -10.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.3 tr/day
realistic slip~11%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -14.3% 17% -10.8%
10% ← realistic here -22.5% 3% -19.3%
15% -30.0% 1% -27.1%
20% -36.8% 0% -34.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 19% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
78% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 85% (≥$1,557) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -2% → late -9% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$75 vs −$523 · ×0.14 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.48 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

88d coverage
Net worth$2,111
Realized−$11,744
Unrealized−$12
Win rate (resolved)77%
Wins / losses158 / 47
Whale WR (big bets)85%
Est. fees paid−$780
Open positions1
Markets (closed)205 / 206
History coverage88d
Avg bet$1,636
Trades / day10.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit91%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 205 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Exact Score: England 0 - 0 Croatia? No 92¢ 92¢ $2,122 $2,111 −$12 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 14 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: Portugal 0 - 0 DR Congo? Jun 17 $2,004 +$124 +6%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $197 −$52 -26%
Exact Score: Iraq 0 - 0 Norway? Jun 16 $2,177 +$111 +5%
Exact Score: France 0 - 0 Senegal? Jun 16 $4,828 +$289 +6%
France vs. Senegal: Draw at halftime? Jun 16 $1,006 +$64 +6%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $1,263 +$135 +11%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $1,142 +$122 +11%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Belgium O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $1,131 −$164 -14%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $1,008 +$296 +29%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $2,006 −$1,062 -53%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 13.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $39 +$1 +3%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 5.5 Jun 15 $501 −$500 -100%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 9.5 Jun 14 $485 +$14 +3%
Germany leading at halftime? Jun 14 $2,328 +$70 +3%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $501 +$18 +4%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $1,004 +$136 +14%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $202 −$93 -46%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $502 +$60 +12%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $1,608 +$309 +19%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $450 −$47 -10%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 13 $1,476 +$13 +1%
Will Bilibili Gaming qualify to MSI 2026? Jun 13 $600 +$14 +2%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 3 Winner Jun 13 $3,005 −$984 -33%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $311 −$20 -6%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $211 −$33 -16%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $148 +$14 +10%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $329 −$56 -17%
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $414 −$78 -19%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $598 −$36 -6%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $359 +$9 +3%
Spread: United States (-2.5) Jun 13 $8 $0 +4%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 4.5 Jun 13 $501 −$500 -100%
United States vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 13 $501 +$15 +3%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $508 +$235 +46%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 3.5 Jun 12 $971 +$171 +18%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 0.5 Jun 12 $818 +$121 +15%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 0.5 Jun 11 $783 +$66 +8%
England vs. Costa Rica: O/U 3.5 Jun 10 $676 +$107 +16%
Portugal vs. Nigeria: O/U 3.5 Jun 10 $578 +$98 +17%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $598 −$22 -4%
Portugal vs. Nigeria: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 10 $58 −$58 -99%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Movistar KOI (BO5) - LEC Playoffs May 25 $564 −$451 -80%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Movistar KOI - Game 4 Winner May 25 $4,800 +$195 +4%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Movistar KOI - Game 2 Winner May 25 $768 −$664 -86%
LoL: Team Vitality vs Movistar KOI (BO5) - LEC Playoffs May 24 $714 +$45 +6%
LoL: Team Vitality vs Movistar KOI - Game 2 Winner May 24 $731 +$14 +2%
LoL: Weibo Gaming vs LGD Gaming (BO5) - LPL Play-In May 24 $1,814 −$669 -37%
LoL: Weibo Gaming vs LGD Gaming - Game 4 Winner May 24 $502 +$85 +17%
LoL: SK Gaming vs Galions (BO3) - Esports World Cup EMEA Qualifier Pla Apr 30 $1,000 +$9 +1%
LoL: ThunderTalk Gaming vs LGD Gaming - Game 2 Winner Apr 30 $1,164 +$35 +3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: England 0 - 0 Croatia? BUY No 92¢ $2,127 10m
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 49¢ $145 1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 65¢ $197 1h
Exact Score: Portugal 0 - 0 DR Congo? BUY No 94¢ $2,004 4h
Exact Score: Iraq 0 - 0 Norway? SELL No 100¢ $2,289 21h
Exact Score: Iraq 0 - 0 Norway? BUY No 95¢ $566 21h
Exact Score: Iraq 0 - 0 Norway? BUY No 95¢ $403 21h
Exact Score: Iraq 0 - 0 Norway? BUY No 95¢ $652 21h
Exact Score: Iraq 0 - 0 Norway? BUY No 95¢ $214 21h
Exact Score: Iraq 0 - 0 Norway? BUY No 95¢ $37 21h
Exact Score: Iraq 0 - 0 Norway? BUY No 95¢ $29 21h
Exact Score: Iraq 0 - 0 Norway? BUY No 95¢ $277 22h
Exact Score: France 0 - 0 Senegal? SELL No 100¢ $3,887 23h
Exact Score: France 0 - 0 Senegal? SELL No 100¢ $333 23h
Exact Score: France 0 - 0 Senegal? SELL No 100¢ $17 23h
Exact Score: France 0 - 0 Senegal? SELL No 100¢ $16 23h
Exact Score: France 0 - 0 Senegal? SELL No 100¢ $30 23h
Exact Score: France 0 - 0 Senegal? SELL No 100¢ $30 23h
Exact Score: France 0 - 0 Senegal? SELL No 100¢ $31 23h
Exact Score: France 0 - 0 Senegal? SELL No 100¢ $83 23h
Exact Score: France 0 - 0 Senegal? SELL No 100¢ $51 23h
Exact Score: France 0 - 0 Senegal? SELL No 100¢ $48 23h
Exact Score: France 0 - 0 Senegal? SELL No 100¢ $22 23h
Exact Score: France 0 - 0 Senegal? SELL No 100¢ $570 23h
France vs. Senegal: Draw at halftime? SELL Yes 86¢ $1,070 24h
France vs. Senegal: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 80¢ $1,006 24h
Exact Score: France 0 - 0 Senegal? BUY No 94¢ $2,828 25h
Exact Score: France 0 - 0 Senegal? BUY No 94¢ $24 25h
Exact Score: France 0 - 0 Senegal? BUY No 94¢ $47 25h
Exact Score: France 0 - 0 Senegal? BUY No 94¢ $532 25h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,110.76 · official $2,110.76 (match) · 931 history records