Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T19:50:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
43 0x43f7…e591 crypto 495 markets active 1h ago coverage 53d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$2,233 (+9%) realized +$2,298 · open −$65
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip
Net edge-30%after slip
Net WR46%break-even
Win rate49%233W / 247L
Whale WR82%big bets
Drawdown91%max
Avg bet$49per market
Trades / day26.7pace
Fees−$42est.
Kalshi-fit92%portable
Net worth$240now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$10
7 days+$409
14 days+$307
30 days+$1,475
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 83% +$1,890
sports 13% +$137
other 3% +$13
economics 1% −$36
world 0% −$19
politics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)-17.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 43 -20.6% -28.2% 47% 40% +28.3%
≤30d 406 -9.0% -17.7% 48% 46% -2.6%
≤90d 480 -8.6% -17.3% 49% 46% -1.8%
all 480 -8.6% -17.3% 49% 46% -1.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover26.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -17.3% 46% -1.8%
10% ← realistic here -25.2% 45% -11.2%
15% -32.4% 42% -19.7%
20% -39.0% 38% -27.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 24% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +9% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt +9% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 82% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -9% → late -8% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$47 vs −$36 · ×1.31 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.23 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

53d coverage
Net worth$240
Realized+$2,298
Unrealized−$65
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses233 / 247
Whale WR (big bets)82%
Est. fees paid−$42
Open positions13
Markets (closed)480 / 495
History coverage53d
Avg bet$49
Trades / day26.7
Drawdown91%
Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 13 History 480 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Fed rate hike in 2026? No 57¢ 44¢ $148 $116 −$32 (-22%)
Will a team from LPL (China) win MSI 2026? No 66¢ 66¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+1%)
Will a team from LCK (South Korea) win MSI 2026? Yes 73¢ 59¢ $22 $18 −$4 (-19%)
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? No 82¢ 84¢ $16 $17 +$0 (+2%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 14¢ $20 $16 −$4 (-20%)
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Noir Esports (BO3) - European Pro League Group B Noir Esports 52¢ 50¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-4%)
Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 4.0% at the end of 2026? No 68¢ 64¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-6%)
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? No 90¢ 90¢ $9 $9 +$0 (+1%)
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? No 83¢ 85¢ $8 $8 +$0 (+2%)
Will Paper Rex win Valorant Masters London 2026? Yes 57¢ 66¢ $6 $7 +$1 (+17%)
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? No 34¢ 20¢ $10 $6 −$4 (-41%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-21%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026? No 49¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 209 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? AND Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $10 +$2 +21%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $9 +$1 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -95%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? AND Will Argentina vs. Algeria Jun 17 $5 +$4 +74%
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play Jun 16 $3 +$2 +49%
Counter-Strike: K27 vs 100 Thieves (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playof Jun 16 $2 +$3 +117%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 16 $10 +$10 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -95%
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs GenOne (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group S Jun 16 $10 −$5 -48%
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs Nuclear TigeRES (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Jun 16 $5 +$5 +90%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? AND Will New Zealand win on 2026- Jun 16 $10 +$4 +41%
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Team Vitality (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof Jun 15 $8 $0 +4%
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playo Jun 15 $6 +$4 +70%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? Jun 15 $14 +$6 +41%
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Top Esports Challenger (BO3) - Asia Masters La Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $11 +$9 +89%
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid (BO5) - LCS Playoffs Jun 14 $9 −$9 -100%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $198 +$247 +125%
Will GenG qualify to MSI 2026? Jun 14 $180 $0 +0%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 14 $9 −$9 -100%
NBA Finals: Game 1 Winner to be Champion? Jun 14 $19 +$31 +163%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $17 +$3 +20%
Game Handicap: GEN (-1.5) vs T1 (+1.5) Jun 13 $18 −$18 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 13 $10 −$10 -96%
Game Handicap: GEN (-2.5) vs KT Rolster (+2.5) Jun 13 $10 +$10 +104%
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 13 $10 +$4 +43%
Game Handicap: BLG (-2.5) vs Team WE (+2.5) Jun 13 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 13 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 13 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 13 $12 −$2 -13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 12 $5 −$2 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -94%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 12 $245 +$244 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 11 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 11 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $18 −$18 -100%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 11 $19 −$19 -100%
Spread: Knicks (-2.5) Jun 11 $10 −$10 -100%
Spread: England (-1.5) Jun 10 $10 +$5 +54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET Jun 10 $5 +$5 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Jun 10 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Jun 10 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET Jun 10 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 10 $19 −$19 -100%
Will China PR win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $20 +$20 +100%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $10 +$4 +38%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Fed rate hike in 2026? BUY No 54¢ $61 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET BUY Up 30¢ $10 2h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 92¢ $9 5h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 82¢ $16 5h
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Noir Esports (BO3) - European Pro League Grou BUY Noir Esports 52¢ $10 7h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 AND Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 AN BUY 13¢ $4 11h
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? AND Will Argentina vs. Algeria BUY 57¢ $5 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $10 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET BUY Down 29¢ $5 26h
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs GenOne (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group S SELL KOLESIE 51¢ $5 26h
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs GenOne (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group S BUY KOLESIE 50¢ $5 26h
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs GenOne (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group S BUY KOLESIE 49¢ $5 26h
Will Paper Rex win Valorant Masters London 2026? BUY Yes 57¢ $6 27h
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play BUY Team Vitality 67¢ $3 32h
Counter-Strike: K27 vs 100 Thieves (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playof BUY K27 46¢ $2 32h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? AND Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? BUY 82¢ $10 32h
Will a team from LPL (China) win MSI 2026? BUY No 66¢ $20 34h
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs Nuclear TigeRES (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch BUY Nuclear TigeRES 52¢ $5 41h
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Team Vitality (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof SELL Team Vitality 41¢ $8 2d
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Team Vitality (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof BUY Team Vitality 38¢ $8 2d
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY TheMongolz 59¢ $6 2d
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playo BUY EDward Gaming 58¢ $6 2d
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Top Esports Challenger (BO3) - Asia Masters La BUY Saigon Warriors 42¢ $4 2d
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? AND Will New Zealand win on 2026- BUY 70¢ $10 2d
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? BUY No 71¢ $14 2d
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid (BO5) - LCS Playoffs BUY Team Liquid 46¢ $9 3d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Aurora Gaming 53¢ $11 3d
Will GenG qualify to MSI 2026? BUY No 100¢ $50 3d
Will GenG qualify to MSI 2026? BUY No 100¢ $50 3d
Will GenG qualify to MSI 2026? BUY No 100¢ $60 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $239.69 · official $246.69 · 1719 history records