Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T02:29:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
43 0x43fc…51c6 sports 1416 markets active 1h ago coverage 90d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 89d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$5,119 (+1%) realized +$5,118 · open +$1
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR1%break-even
Win rate99%1406W / 8L
Whale WR99%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$352per market
Trades / day23.3pace
Fees−$80est.
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$247now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$11
7 days+$84
14 days+$974
30 days+$1,666
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 68% +$13,081
other 23% −$9,440
crypto 8% +$139
world 0% +$4
weather 0% +$5
tech 0% +$1
economics 0% $0
politics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +1%
net ROI/market (all)-8.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 86 +0.7% -8.9% 99% 0% -9.3%
≤30d 458 +0.7% -8.9% 99% 1% -9.0%
≤90d 1414 +0.8% -8.8% 99% 1% -8.8%
all 1414 +0.8% -8.8% 99% 1% -8.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover23.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -8.8% 1% -8.8%
10% ← realistic here -17.5% 0% -17.6%
15% -25.5% 0% -25.5%
20% -32.8% 0% -32.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 76% · top 2 84% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
99% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 99% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +1% → late +1% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$10 vs −$1,361 · ×0.01 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.35 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

90d coverage
Net worth$247
Realized+$5,118
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)99%
Wins / losses1406 / 8
Whale WR (big bets)99%
Est. fees paid−$80
Open positions2
Markets (closed)1414 / 1416
History coverage90d ⚠
Avg bet$352
Trades / day23.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 1414 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
MLP St. Petersburg: Miami Pickleball Club vs Palm Beach Royals Palm Beach Royals 99¢ 100¢ $146 $147 +$1 (+0%)
MLP St. Petersburg: Texas Ranchers vs St. Louis Shock St. Louis Shock 100¢ 100¢ $100 $100 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Australia vs Bangladesh - Toss Match Double Jun 17 $198 +$2 +1%
Figueira Da Foz: Completed Match: Ayla Aksu vs Sachia Vickery Jun 17 $128 $0 +0%
Marko Arnautovic: 1+ shots Jun 17 $214 +$2 +1%
Will Iraq go unbeaten in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage? Jun 17 $200 $0 +0%
ITF Women Blois: Completed Match: Ipek Oz vs Jessica Pieri Jun 16 $54 +$1 +1%
ITF Women Tauste: Completed Match: Yleymi Lugiana Muelle Valdez vs Cel Jun 16 $5 $0 +1%
Romelu Lukaku: 1+ goals Jun 16 $383 +$3 +1%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $3,039 +$3 +0%
Will Tunisia go unbeaten in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage? Jun 15 $100 $0 +0%
WTT - Women's Singles: Miwa Harimoto vs Yuling Zhu Jun 14 $114 $0 +0%
Australia vs. Türkiye: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $14 $0 +0%
Haiti vs. Scotland: Scotland 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $906 +$1 +0%
MLP Austin: Dallas Flash vs New Jersey 5s Jun 14 $16 $0 +1%
MLP Austin: California Black Bears vs SoCal Hard Eights Jun 14 $56 +$1 +1%
MLP Austin: Bay Area Breakers vs Texas Ranchers Jun 14 $114 +$1 +0%
MLP Austin: Atlanta Bouncers vs Florida Smash Jun 14 $9 $0 +1%
MLP Austin: SoCal Hard Eights vs Carolina Hogs Jun 14 $59 +$1 +1%
MLP Austin: Bay Area Breakers vs Florida Smash Jun 14 $79 +$1 +1%
WTT - Men's Singles: Jae-Hyun An vs Yuanyu Chen Jun 14 $106 +$1 +1%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Scotland vs Ireland - Completed match? Jun 13 $322 $0 +0%
Christian Pulisic: 3+ shots Jun 13 $75 $0 +0%
Christian Pulisic: 1+ shots Jun 13 $113 $0 +0%
Weston McKennie: 4+ shots Jun 13 $5 $0 +2%
Sergiño Dest: 1+ shots Jun 13 $5 $0 +2%
Weston McKennie: 5+ shots Jun 13 $5 $0 +2%
Weston McKennie: 1+ shots Jun 13 $5 $0 +2%
Ramón Sosa: 1+ shots Jun 13 $5 $0 +2%
Julio César Enciso: 5+ shots Jun 13 $56 $0 +0%
Julio César Enciso: 4+ shots Jun 13 $78 $0 +0%
Julio César Enciso: 3+ shots Jun 13 $13 +$1 +5%
Álex Arce: 1+ shots Jun 13 $5 $0 +2%
Álex Arce: 2+ shots Jun 13 $5 $0 +2%
Álex Arce: 5+ shots Jun 13 $5 $0 +2%
Exact Score: United States 2 - 1 Paraguay? Jun 13 $1,998 +$2 +0%
Exact Score: United States 1 - 2 Paraguay? Jun 13 $2,997 +$3 +0%
Exact Score: United States 2 - 0 Paraguay? Jun 13 $6,993 +$7 +0%
Exact Score: United States 1 - 1 Paraguay? Jun 13 $295 $0 +0%
Exact Score: United States 1 - 0 Paraguay? Jun 13 $397 $0 +0%
United States vs. Paraguay: Paraguay 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $136 $0 +0%
United States vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 13 $1,837 +$2 +0%
MLP Austin: Texas Ranchers vs Dallas Flash Jun 13 $53 +$1 +1%
MLP Austin: Columbus Sliders vs SoCal Hard Eights Jun 13 $55 +$1 +1%
Samed Baždar: 1+ shots Jun 12 $5 $0 +2%
Kerim Alajbegović: 1+ shots Jun 12 $5 $0 +2%
Ismaël Koné: 1+ shots Jun 12 $5 $0 +2%
Ermedin Demirović: 1+ shots Jun 12 $44 $0 +1%
Armin Gigović: 1+ shots Jun 12 $5 $0 +2%
Ali Ahmed: 1+ shots Jun 12 $5 $0 +2%
Canada vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Neither team to score first? Jun 12 $236 $0 +0%
Alphonso Davies: 1+ goals Jun 12 $1,084 +$1 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
MLP St. Petersburg: Texas Ranchers vs St. Louis Shock BUY St. Louis Shock 100¢ $100 1h
MLP St. Petersburg: Miami Pickleball Club vs Palm Beach Royals BUY Palm Beach Royals 99¢ $146 1h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Australia vs Bangladesh - Toss Match Double BUY Yes 99¢ $198 14h
Figueira Da Foz: Completed Match: Ayla Aksu vs Sachia Vickery BUY No 100¢ $128 14h
Marko Arnautovic: 1+ shots BUY Yes 99¢ $214 18h
Will Iraq go unbeaten in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage? BUY No 100¢ $200 26h
ITF Women Blois: Completed Match: Ipek Oz vs Jessica Pieri BUY No 99¢ $54 35h
ITF Women Tauste: Completed Match: Yleymi Lugiana Muelle Valdez vs Cel BUY No 99¢ $5 36h
Romelu Lukaku: 1+ goals BUY No 99¢ $383 36h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 100¢ $3 47h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 100¢ $39 47h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 100¢ $632 2d
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 100¢ $159 2d
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 100¢ $6 2d
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 100¢ $8 2d
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 100¢ $161 2d
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 100¢ $115 2d
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 100¢ $26 2d
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 100¢ $10 2d
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 100¢ $3 2d
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 100¢ $476 2d
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 100¢ $899 2d
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 100¢ $335 2d
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 100¢ $48 2d
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 100¢ $119 2d
Will Tunisia go unbeaten in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage? BUY No 100¢ $100 2d
WTT - Women's Singles: Miwa Harimoto vs Yuling Zhu BUY Harimoto 100¢ $114 3d
Australia vs. Türkiye: 1st Half O/U 2.5 BUY Under 100¢ $11 3d
Australia vs. Türkiye: 1st Half O/U 2.5 BUY Under 100¢ $3 3d
Haiti vs. Scotland: Scotland 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 100¢ $8 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $247.12 · official $247.12 (match) · 3500 history records