Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T09:01:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
44 0x4400…e061 other 185 markets active 2h ago coverage 171d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$42 (-0%) realized −$42 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate14%26W / 158L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$131per market
Trades / day3.9pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit73%portable
Net worth$54now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 27% −$11
sports 26% −$20
politics 24% −$11
crypto 9% $0
culture 5% −$5
economics 4% $0
world 4% −$2
tech 1% −$1
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 2 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.8%
≤90d 83 -0.3% -9.8% 12% 0% -9.7%
all 184 -0.1% -9.6% 14% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.6% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.4%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 31% · top 2 44% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×1.06 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.23 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

171d coverage
Net worth$54
Realized−$42
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)14%
Wins / losses26 / 158
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions1
Markets (closed)184 / 185
History coverage171d
Avg bet$131
Trades / day3.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit73%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 184 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Andy Burnham be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026? Yes 98¢ 98¢ $54 $54 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 15 $280 $0 -0%
Will UNRWA win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 04 $875 −$3 -0%
Will Arthur Fils win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 22 $106 $0 -0%
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 11 $96 −$1 -1%
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 11 $55 $0 -0%
Will Bruno Retailleau win the 2027 French presidential election? May 11 $306 $0 -0%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 10 $58 $0 -0%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 10 $872 −$3 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in May? May 10 $45 $0 -1%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 09 $399 −$1 -0%
Will Rahm Emanuel win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 09 $165 $0 -0%
Will Gabriel Attal win the 2027 French presidential election? May 08 $89 $0 -0%
Will Israel win Eurovision 2026? May 08 $65 $0 +0%
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? May 08 $108 −$1 -1%
Will Malta win Eurovision 2026? May 08 $51 $0 -0%
Will Reza Pahlavi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 07 $55 −$1 -1%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee May 07 $104 $0 +0%
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 07 $109 $0 -0%
Will Chad Bianco win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 06 $53 $0 -0%
Will there be no Head of State in Iran end of 2026? May 06 $50 −$1 -2%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in May? May 05 $54 $0 -0%
Will the Philadelphia Phillies win the 2026 World Series? May 05 $469 −$2 -0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 05 $256 −$1 -0%
Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election? May 05 $113 −$2 -2%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nom May 04 $98 −$1 -1%
Will Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 04 $62 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $160,000 by December 31, 2026? May 04 $53 −$2 -3%
Will Novak Djokovic win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 03 $93 −$1 -1%
Will Italy win Eurovision 2026? May 02 $236 $0 +0%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 02 $410 −$1 -0%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 02 $214 −$1 -0%
Will Katie Porter win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 02 $101 −$1 -1%
Will the Dallas Cowboys win the 2027 NFL league championship? May 01 $60 $0 -0%
Will the Kansas City Chiefs win the 2027 NFL league championship? May 01 $59 −$1 -1%
Will the Denver Broncos win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 30 $54 $0 -0%
Will the New York Mets win the 2026 World Series? Apr 28 $93 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 in April? Apr 28 $53 +$1 +1%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 27 $68 $0 -0%
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 24 $155 $0 -0%
Will Jorge Nieto win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Apr 22 $108 −$1 -1%
Will François Hollande win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 22 $56 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in April? Apr 22 $124 $0 +0%
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series? Apr 21 $378 $0 +0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $60 in April? Apr 21 $40 $0 -0%
Will Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Apr 21 $60 $0 -0%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 20 $44 $0 -0%
Will Shai Gilgeous-Alexander win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? Apr 19 $41 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in April? Apr 19 $47 $0 -1%
Will the Dallas Stars win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Apr 18 $216 −$1 -0%
Will Victor Wembanyama win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? Apr 18 $291 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Andy Burnham be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in BUY Yes 98¢ $54 2h
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 93¢ $65 13d
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 93¢ $65 13d
Will UNRWA win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 91¢ $38 24d
Will UNRWA win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 92¢ $26 24d
Will UNRWA win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 92¢ $13 24d
Will Arthur Fils win the 2026 Men's French Open? SELL No 97¢ $58 38d
Will Arthur Fils win the 2026 Men's French Open? BUY No 97¢ $58 38d
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 90¢ $46 48d
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 91¢ $47 49d
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 96¢ $55 49d
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 96¢ $55 49d
Will Bruno Retailleau win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 97¢ $56 49d
Will Bruno Retailleau win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 97¢ $56 49d
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 97¢ $53 49d
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 97¢ $53 49d
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL No 94¢ $62 49d
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 94¢ $62 49d
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in May? SELL No 97¢ $45 49d
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in May? BUY No 97¢ $45 50d
Will Arthur Fils win the 2026 Men's French Open? SELL No 97¢ $48 50d
Will Arthur Fils win the 2026 Men's French Open? BUY No 96¢ $48 50d
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL No 94¢ $48 50d
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 94¢ $49 50d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 96¢ $47 50d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 97¢ $48 51d
Will Rahm Emanuel win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 98¢ $64 51d
Will Rahm Emanuel win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 98¢ $64 51d
Will Gabriel Attal win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 96¢ $58 51d
Will Gabriel Attal win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 96¢ $59 51d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $54.35 · official $54.35 (match) · 759 history records