Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T01:02:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
44 0x4400…9804 other 8 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable! high turnover
Total PnL +$3 (+2%) realized +$62 · open −$59
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +37% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +15% what you keep after slip
Net edge+15%after slip
Net WR67%break-even
Win rate100%3W / 0L
Drawdown0%max
Avg bet$22per market
Trades / day18.0pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit25%portable
Net worth$100now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 93% −$54
sports 7% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +67%
net ROI/market (all)+24.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +37.4% +24.3% 100% 67% +12.2%
≤30d 3 +37.4% +24.3% 100% 67% +12.2%
≤90d 3 +37.4% +24.3% 100% 67% +12.2%
all 3 +37.4% +24.3% 100% 67% +12.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover18.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +24.3% 67% +12.2%
10% +12.4% 67% +1.4%
15% +1.5% 67% -8.4%
20% -8.4% 33% -17.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 37% · top 2 71% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +24% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +37% · $-wt +24% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs — no data
Profit factor
— no data
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$100
Realized+$62
Unrealized−$59
Win rate (resolved)100%
Wins / losses3 / 0
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions5
Markets (closed)3 / 8
History coverage1d
Avg bet$22
Trades / day18.0
Drawdown0%
Kalshi-fit25%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 3 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? No 43¢ 26¢ $137 $80 −$57 (-41%)
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? No 66¢ 70¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+7%)
Will Uruguay vs. Spain end in a draw? Yes 28¢ 20¢ $10 $7 −$3 (-30%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 19¢ 22¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+13%)
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-26? Yes 34¢ 28¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-16%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Senegal vs. Iraq: O/U 2.5 Jun 27 $2 +$1 +52%
Will France win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $8 +$1 +10%
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $2 +$1 +49%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? BUY No 45¢ $2 41m
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? BUY No 46¢ $10 41m
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 34¢ $1 46m
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? BUY No 44¢ $5 1h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? BUY No 44¢ $41 1h
Will Uruguay vs. Spain end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $10 1h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? BUY No 43¢ $41 1h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? BUY No 43¢ $31 1h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? BUY No 66¢ $10 2h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? BUY No 41¢ $10 3h
Will France win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 94¢ $6 5h
Will France win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 88¢ $1 5h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 19¢ $1 5h
Will France win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 73¢ $1 6h
Senegal vs. Iraq: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 65¢ $2 6h
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? SELL No 100¢ $3 20h
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 57¢ $1 21h
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 79¢ $1 22h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $100.10 · official $100.10 (match) · 20 history records