Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T15:55:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
44 0x4401…bed1 crypto 123 markets active 2h ago coverage 28d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$102 (-8%) realized −$102 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate60%74W / 49L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$10per market
Trades / day9.8pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$86
7 days−$86
14 days−$86
30 days−$134
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$134
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)-20.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 67 -6.4% -15.3% 64% 52% -18.3%
≤30d 123 -12.5% -20.9% 60% 47% -19.6%
≤90d 123 -12.5% -20.9% 60% 47% -19.6%
all 123 -12.5% -20.9% 60% 47% -19.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -20.9% 47% -19.6%
10% -28.4% 33% -27.3%
15% -35.4% 20% -34.3%
20% -41.7% 10% -40.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 14% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -11% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
22% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -13% · $-wt -11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -21% → late -4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$7 · ×0.4 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.6 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

28d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$102
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses74 / 49
Open positions0
Markets (closed)123 / 123
History coverage28d
Avg bet$10
Trades / day9.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 123 Trades
no open positions (18 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 23 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 23 $20 +$18 +92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 23 $20 −$20 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 23 $15 +$7 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 23 $25 +$8 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 23 $25 −$6 -22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 23 $15 +$6 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 23 $15 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 23 $20 +$4 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 23 $15 +$4 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 23 $11 +$5 +47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 23 $10 −$10 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 23 $10 +$3 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 23 $23 +$6 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 23 $14 −$2 -17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 22 $6 −$2 -28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 22 $5 +$2 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 22 $19 −$3 -17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 22 $15 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 22 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 22 $10 +$2 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 22 $18 +$2 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 22 $5 +$2 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 22 $10 −$9 -89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 22 $10 −$10 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 22 $10 +$4 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 22 $10 +$3 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 22 $20 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 22 $5 +$2 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 22 $4 +$1 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 22 $5 +$3 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Jun 22 $4 +$1 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 22 $2 −$2 -91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 22 $2 $0 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 22 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 22 $9 −$4 -42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 22 $31 −$31 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 22 $30 +$7 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 22 $25 +$5 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 22 $22 +$2 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 22 $15 +$7 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 22 $12 −$11 -90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 22 $11 −$9 -83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 22 $35 +$2 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 22 $1 +$1 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 22 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 22 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 22 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 22 $20 +$10 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 22 $20 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET BUY Down 83¢ $30 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET BUY Up 70¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $16 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET BUY Down 71¢ $20 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $22 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET BUY Up 66¢ $15 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $33 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Down 75¢ $25 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET BUY Up 76¢ $15 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET BUY Down 80¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Up 69¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Up 73¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET SELL Up 100¢ $16 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $15 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Down 82¢ $20 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET BUY Down 86¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET BUY Down 81¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET BUY Down 70¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET SELL Down 100¢ $16 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET BUY Down 71¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET BUY Down 63¢ $6 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET SELL Down 2¢ $0 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET BUY Down 72¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET BUY Down 59¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $18 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET BUY Down 67¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET SELL Down 74¢ $11 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET BUY Down 65¢ $10 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 354 history records