Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T16:24:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
44 0x4406…ef33 crypto 103 markets active 0h ago coverage 11d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$17 (+2%) realized +$23 · open −$6
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR37%break-even
Win rate63%64W / 38L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$8per market
Trades / day13.2pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$44now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$32
7 days+$32
14 days+$29
30 days+$29
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 61% +$57
crypto 39% −$34
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)-16.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 85 -9.4% -18.1% 64% 34% -5.6%
≤30d 102 -7.2% -16.0% 63% 37% -6.3%
≤90d 102 -7.2% -16.0% 63% 37% -6.3%
all 102 -7.2% -16.0% 63% 37% -6.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover13.2 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.0% 37% -6.3%
10% -24.1% 25% -15.3%
15% -31.4% 19% -23.5%
20% -38.1% 18% -31.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 23% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
41% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt +4% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late -12% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$3 · ×0.73 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.23 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

11d coverage
Net worth$44
Realized+$23
Unrealized−$6
Win rate (resolved)63%
Wins / losses64 / 38
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions1
Markets (closed)102 / 103
History coverage11d
Avg bet$8
Trades / day13.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 102 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Dota 2: Flame Team vs 4ikibamboni - Game 1 Winner 4ikibamboni 90¢ 80¢ $50 $44 −$6 (-11%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 32 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs INOX Division (BO3) - European Pro League Se Jun 17 $48 +$5 +11%
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Team Nemesis (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playo Jun 17 $44 +$4 +10%
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs INOX Division - Map 1 Winner Jun 17 $34 +$4 +11%
Counter-Strike: Rooster vs DXA Esports (BO3) - Dfrag Open Series #5 Pl Jun 17 $36 +$4 +11%
Counter-Strike: Nuclear TigeRES vs K27 (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Pl Jun 17 $32 +$4 +12%
Counter-Strike: Rooster vs DXA Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 17 $30 +$3 +10%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics Jun 17 $27 +$3 +11%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 17 $24 +$3 +12%
Dota 2: Carstensz vs InterActive Philippines - Game 1 Winner Jun 17 $22 +$2 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 15 $3 +$1 +53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +142%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +140%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 14 $1 +$2 +152%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 13 $8 −$8 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 13 $4 +$4 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 13 $5 −$4 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 13 $4 −$4 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 13 $4 +$5 +116%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 13 $5 +$8 +170%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 13 $4 −$4 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 13 $5 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 13 $4 −$4 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 13 $4 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 13 $3 +$5 +153%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 -15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 12 $16 −$15 -94%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $15 −$15 -98%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $5 −$3 -61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 12 $5 $0 +5%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $50 +$6 +12%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $45 +$7 +16%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $37 +$6 +16%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 2 Winner Jun 12 $11 +$27 +254%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Dota 2: Flame Team vs 4ikibamboni - Game 1 Winner BUY 4ikibamboni 90¢ $50 2m
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs INOX Division (BO3) - European Pro League Se SELL INOX Division 99¢ $54 1h
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs INOX Division (BO3) - European Pro League Se BUY INOX Division 89¢ $48 2h
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Team Nemesis (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playo SELL Team Nemesis 100¢ $48 2h
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Team Nemesis (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playo BUY Team Nemesis 91¢ $44 2h
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs INOX Division - Map 1 Winner SELL SPARTA 99¢ $38 3h
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs INOX Division - Map 1 Winner BUY SPARTA 89¢ $10 3h
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs INOX Division - Map 1 Winner BUY SPARTA 89¢ $10 3h
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs INOX Division - Map 1 Winner BUY SPARTA 89¢ $6 3h
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs INOX Division - Map 1 Winner BUY SPARTA 89¢ $8 3h
Counter-Strike: Rooster vs DXA Esports (BO3) - Dfrag Open Series #5 Pl SELL Rooster 100¢ $40 5h
Counter-Strike: Rooster vs DXA Esports (BO3) - Dfrag Open Series #5 Pl BUY Rooster 90¢ $36 5h
Counter-Strike: Nuclear TigeRES vs K27 (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Pl SELL Nuclear TigeRES 100¢ $36 5h
Counter-Strike: Nuclear TigeRES vs K27 (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Pl BUY Nuclear TigeRES 89¢ $32 5h
Counter-Strike: Rooster vs DXA Esports - Map 2 Winner SELL Rooster 100¢ $32 5h
Counter-Strike: Rooster vs DXA Esports - Map 2 Winner BUY Rooster 91¢ $30 6h
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics SELL Pittsburgh Pirates 99¢ $30 11h
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics BUY Pittsburgh Pirates 89¢ $27 11h
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers SELL Los Angeles Dodgers 100¢ $27 12h
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 89¢ $24 12h
Dota 2: Carstensz vs InterActive Philippines - Game 1 Winner SELL Carstensz 100¢ $24 12h
Dota 2: Carstensz vs InterActive Philippines - Game 1 Winner BUY Carstensz 90¢ $22 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET BUY Down 44¢ $2 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET BUY Up 38¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET BUY Up 24¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET BUY Up 10¢ $2 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET BUY Up 37¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET BUY Up 21¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $1 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $44.28 · official $39.85 · 190 history records