Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T02:36:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
44 0x4408…1b6a other 28 markets active 3h ago coverage 11d
BOTnot copyable ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample⚠ Covers last 11d only
✗ bot/MM pace (303 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$39,100 (+14%) realized +$31,915 · open +$7,185
Gross ROI / mkt +12% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate44%12W / 15L
Whale WR43%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$9,668per market
Trades / day303.3pace
Fees−$637est.
Kalshi-fit36%portable
Net worth$18,256now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$42,037
7 days−$36,660
14 days+$25,065
30 days+$25,065
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 69% −$33,330
sports 14% +$42,012
crypto 13% +$10,139
world 4% +$13,429
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (303 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)+1.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 17 -11.7% -20.2% 35% 29% -28.6%
≤30d 27 +12.5% +1.8% 44% 41% -0.8%
≤90d 27 +12.5% +1.8% 44% 41% -0.8%
all 27 +12.5% +1.8% 44% 41% -0.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover303.3 tr/day
realistic slip~18%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +1.8% 41% -0.8%
10% -8.0% 41% -10.3%
15% ← realistic here -16.9% 41% -19.0%
20% -25.0% 37% -26.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 31% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +10% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +12% · $-wt +10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 43% (≥$11,521) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +20% → late +5% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
113.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$12,482 vs −$8,315 · ×1.5 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.2 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

11d coverage
Net worth$18,256
Realized+$31,915
Unrealized+$7,185
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses12 / 15
Whale WR (big bets)43%
Est. fees paid−$637
Open positions1
Markets (closed)27 / 28
History coverage11d ⚠
Avg bet$9,668
Trades / day303.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit36%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 27 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? No 47¢ 78¢ $11,071 $18,256 +$7,185 (+65%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 8 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $15,554 +$7,629 +49%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $11,322 +$6,706 +59%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $8,987 +$15,367 +171%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $10,241 +$16,710 +163%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $8,448 −$4,375 -52%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $11,527 −$11,527 -100%
England vs. Ghana: O/U 3.5 Jun 23 $3,828 −$3,828 -100%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $11,143 −$11,143 -100%
Argentina vs. Austria: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 22 $3,793 +$323 +8%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $10,288 −$10,288 -100%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $11,344 −$11,344 -100%
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Jun 21 $6,946 +$25,588 +368%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $10,411 −$9,541 -92%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $11,179 −$11,179 -100%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $12,747 −$10,628 -83%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $15,077 −$13,918 -92%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $11,214 −$11,214 -100%
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 18 $559 +$1,396 +250%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $270 −$270 -100%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $5,507 −$5,507 -100%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $11,000 +$11,000 +100%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $11,440 +$13,429 +117%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $11,730 +$19,138 +163%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $4,201 −$4,201 -100%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $11,521 −$5,761 -50%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $22,174 +$20,766 +94%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 5.5 Jun 14 $7,191 +$11,733 +163%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 67¢ $8,995 3h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 66¢ $7 3h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 66¢ $19 3h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 66¢ $214 3h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 66¢ $5,218 3h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 66¢ $190 3h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 66¢ $40 3h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 66¢ $84 3h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 66¢ $6 3h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 66¢ $10 3h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 66¢ $10 3h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 66¢ $387 3h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 66¢ $376 3h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 63¢ $1,291 3h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 63¢ $2 3h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 63¢ $125 3h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 63¢ $251 3h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 63¢ $3 3h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 63¢ $49 3h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 63¢ $34 3h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 63¢ $202 3h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 63¢ $5,026 3h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 63¢ $831 3h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 63¢ $19 3h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 63¢ $15 3h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 63¢ $2 3h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 63¢ $47 3h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 63¢ $2 3h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 63¢ $3 3h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 63¢ $163 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $18,255.90 · official $12,131.34 · 3500 history records