Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T07:27:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
44 0x440a…e960 sports 26 markets active 2h ago coverage 9d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$46 (+16%) realized +$40 · open +$6
Gross ROI / mkt +12% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -2% what you keep after slip
Net edge-2%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate50%11W / 11L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$11per market
Trades / day4.1pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit62%portable
Net worth$46now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$22
7 days+$16
14 days+$18
30 days+$18
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 47% −$4
sports 36% +$12
crypto 17% +$16
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)+1.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 20 +12.4% +1.7% 50% 45% -3.1%
≤30d 22 +12.3% +1.6% 50% 45% -2.8%
≤90d 22 +12.3% +1.6% 50% 45% -2.8%
all 22 +12.3% +1.6% 50% 45% -2.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +1.6% 45% -2.8%
10% -8.1% 36% -12.1%
15% -17.0% 32% -20.6%
20% -25.1% 27% -28.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 44% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +7% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
9% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +12% · $-wt +7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +30% → late -6% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$8 · ×1.21 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.21 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

9d coverage
Net worth$46
Realized+$40
Unrealized+$6
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses11 / 11
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions4
Markets (closed)22 / 26
History coverage9d
Avg bet$11
Trades / day4.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 22 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 in June? No 75¢ 90¢ $20 $24 +$4 (+20%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $10 $12 +$2 (+17%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 83¢ 86¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+4%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 84¢ 80¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $21 +$9 +42%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 21 $32 +$1 +3%
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 20 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Brazil vs. Haiti end in a draw? Jun 20 $9 −$9 -100%
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 20 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? Jun 20 $9 −$9 -100%
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? Jun 20 $9 −$9 -100%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $16 +$11 +67%
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 18 $8 +$21 +249%
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $16 +$2 +13%
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 18 $9 −$9 -100%
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 18 $9 −$9 -100%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $11 +$7 +64%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $9 +$23 +273%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 16 $11 −$11 -100%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 16 $11 −$11 -100%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $5 +$13 +236%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 15 $5 +$1 +16%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $5 +$10 +192%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 14 $10 −$1 -7%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $11 −$1 -10%
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 13 $9 +$3 +34%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $33 1h
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $14 6h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 67¢ $21 11h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 57¢ $16 18h
Will Brazil vs. Haiti end in a draw? BUY Yes 10¢ $9 30h
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $8 3d
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $9 3d
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $8 3d
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $9 3d
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? BUY Yes 27¢ $8 3d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 13¢ $18 3d
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? SELL Yes 71¢ $32 3d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 58¢ $11 3d
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $9 4d
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? BUY Yes 19¢ $9 4d
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $9 4d
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? SELL Yes 29¢ $6 5d
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $15 5d
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $5 5d
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $5 5d
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 31¢ $5 5d
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes $9 6d
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 in June? BUY No 75¢ $21 7d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $13 7d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $11 7d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $11 7d
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes $10 7d
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes $10 8d
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes $11 8d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 26¢ $11 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $45.60 · official $45.60 (match) · 59 history records