Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T23:38:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
44 0x440b…3f15 weather 535 markets active 1h ago coverage 94d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$136 (+1%) realized +$137 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR1%break-even
Win rate95%506W / 26L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$47per market
Trades / day7.9pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$265now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2
7 days+$7
14 days+$14
30 days+$29
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 100% −$25
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +1%
net ROI/market (all)-9.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 22 +0.5% -9.1% 100% 0% -9.2%
≤30d 159 +0.4% -9.1% 94% 2% -9.2%
≤90d 524 -0.5% -10.0% 95% 1% -9.6%
all 532 -0.4% -9.9% 95% 1% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.9% 1% -9.6%
10% -18.5% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.4% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.6% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
99% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$8 · ×0.04 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.88 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

94d coverage
Net worth$265
Realized+$137
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)95%
Wins / losses506 / 26
Open positions3
Markets (closed)532 / 535
History coverage94d
Avg bet$47
Trades / day7.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 532 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 25°C on June 18? No 100¢ 100¢ $173 $172 −$1 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 33°C on June 19? No 100¢ 100¢ $50 $50 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 26°C on June 18? No 100¢ 99¢ $42 $42 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C on June 17? Jun 17 $484 +$2 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 14°C on June 15? Jun 15 $67 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 23°C on June 15? Jun 15 $50 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 22°C on June 15? Jun 15 $100 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 34°C on June 15? Jun 15 $10 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 36°C on June 15? Jun 15 $50 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 17°C or below on June 15? Jun 15 $174 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 20°C or higher on June 14? Jun 14 $15 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 38°C on June 14? Jun 14 $20 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 22°C on June 14? Jun 14 $30 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 19°C on June 13? Jun 13 $5 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 25°C on June 13? Jun 13 $106 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 32°C on June 13? Jun 13 $20 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on June 13? Jun 13 $100 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 14°C on June 12? Jun 12 $50 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 25°C on June 12? Jun 12 $30 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 34°C or higher on June 12? Jun 12 $20 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 32°C on June 12? Jun 12 $10 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 26°C on June 12? Jun 12 $50 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 23°C or below on June 12? Jun 12 $30 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 24°C on June 11? Jun 11 $100 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 25°C on June 11? Jun 11 $100 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 24°C on June 10? Jun 10 $30 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 35°C or higher on June 10? Jun 10 $50 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 32°C or higher on June 10? Jun 10 $19 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 22°C or below on June 10? Jun 10 $50 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 23°C on June 10? Jun 10 $30 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 21°C on June 10? Jun 10 $66 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 17°C or below on June 10? Jun 10 $24 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 26°C on June 9? Jun 09 $5 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 26°C on June 9? Jun 09 $46 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 25°C on June 9? Jun 09 $51 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 23°C or below on June 8? Jun 08 $50 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 33°C or higher on June 8? Jun 08 $101 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 18°C or below on June 8? Jun 08 $20 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 28°C or higher on June 8? Jun 08 $30 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 19°C on June 8? Jun 08 $20 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 17°C on June 8? Jun 08 $10 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 16°C on June 8? Jun 08 $19 +$1 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 25°C or higher on June 8? Jun 08 $50 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 19°C on June 8? Jun 08 $10 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 20°C or below on June 8? Jun 08 $20 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 21°C on June 8? Jun 08 $20 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 21°C on June 8? Jun 08 $100 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 25°C on June 8? Jun 08 $20 $0 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 30°C or higher on June 8? Jun 08 $20 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 29°C on June 7? Jun 07 $10 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 21°C or below on June 7? Jun 07 $10 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 28°C or higher on June 6? Jun 06 $100 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 29°C or below on June 6? Jun 06 $200 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 25°C on June 18? BUY No 100¢ $157 1h
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 26°C on June 18? BUY No 100¢ $42 1h
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 33°C on June 19? BUY No 100¢ $50 1h
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 25°C on June 18? BUY No 100¢ $16 1h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $484 39h
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 34°C on June 15? BUY No 99¢ $10 2d
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 17°C or below on June 15? BUY No 100¢ $74 3d
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 17°C or below on June 15? BUY No 100¢ $100 3d
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 14°C on June 15? BUY No 99¢ $67 3d
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 20°C or higher on June 14? BUY No 100¢ $15 3d
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 23°C on June 15? BUY No 100¢ $50 4d
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 22°C on June 15? BUY No 100¢ $100 4d
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 22°C on June 14? BUY No 100¢ $30 4d
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 36°C on June 15? BUY No 99¢ $50 4d
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 19°C on June 13? BUY No 99¢ $5 4d
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 38°C on June 14? BUY No 99¢ $20 5d
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 32°C on June 13? BUY No 100¢ $20 5d
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on June 13? BUY No 100¢ $16 6d
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on June 13? BUY No 100¢ $84 6d
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 25°C on June 13? BUY No 100¢ $106 6d
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 25°C on June 12? BUY No 100¢ $30 7d
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 26°C on June 12? BUY No 100¢ $30 7d
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 14°C on June 12? BUY No 100¢ $50 7d
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 26°C on June 12? BUY No 100¢ $20 7d
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 25°C on June 11? BUY No 100¢ $100 7d
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 34°C or higher on June 12? BUY No 99¢ $20 7d
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 32°C on June 12? BUY No 99¢ $10 7d
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 23°C or below on June 12? BUY No 99¢ $10 7d
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 23°C or below on June 12? BUY No 99¢ $20 7d
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 24°C on June 10? BUY No 100¢ $30 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $264.66 · official $264.66 (match) · 1226 history records