Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T06:17:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
44 0x440b…a889 world 102 markets active 2h ago coverage 466d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$3 (+0%) realized +$3 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate41%41W / 60L
Drawdown81%max
Avg bet$96per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Fees−$22est.
Kalshi-fit69%portable
Net worth$84now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2
7 days−$1
14 days−$1
30 days−$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 37% +$1
sports 36% +$1
other 22% $0
politics 2% +$2
finance 1% −$1
crypto 1% $0
tech 0% $0
economics 0% $0
weather 0% $0
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-9.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -0.3% -9.8% 14% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 29 +7.0% -3.2% 38% 3% -9.6%
≤90d 48 +2.2% -7.6% 38% 2% -9.5%
all 101 -0.3% -9.8% 41% 2% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.8% 2% -9.5%
10% -18.4% 2% -18.2%
15% -26.3% 2% -26.1%
20% -33.5% 2% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 35% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
95% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late +2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.98 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.12 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

466d coverage
Net worth$84
Realized+$3
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses41 / 60
Est. fees paid−$22
Open positions1
Markets (closed)101 / 102
History coverage466d
Avg bet$96
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown81%
Kalshi-fit69%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 101 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Cuban regime falls in 2026? No 82¢ 82¢ $84 $84 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 18 $76 $0 -0%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 17 $78 −$2 -2%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 17 $246 $0 -0%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Jun 16 $37 $0 +0%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 15 $171 +$1 +1%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 13 $85 $0 +0%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 13 $60 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 10 $78 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 09 $78 −$1 -1%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 06 $242 +$1 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 06 $142 $0 +0%
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 05 $86 $0 -0%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? Jun 05 $157 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 04 $286 −$6 -2%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 04 $83 $0 -0%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 03 $167 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 02 $24 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 01 $128 +$1 +1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? May 31 $91 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 30 $83 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? May 29 $83 −$2 -2%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 28 $116 −$5 -4%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? May 26 $88 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? May 25 $85 +$3 +3%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 24 $84 +$1 +2%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 24 $84 +$1 +2%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026? May 21 $165 $0 -0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia May 20 $80 +$4 +5%
Trump renames Strait of Hormuz to "Strait of Trump" by May 31? May 20 $88 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 19 $89 −$1 -1%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 18 $2 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 17 $171 $0 -0%
Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamen May 16 $251 +$1 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 15 $87 $0 +0%
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 26 $1,021 +$1 +0%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 26 $1,422 $0 +0%
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Apr 26 $54 −$2 -4%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Apr 26 $77 +$6 +8%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 25 $91 $0 +0%
Starmer out by April 30, 2026? Apr 25 $13 $0 +0%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 24 $235 $0 -0%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 24 $1,002 +$1 +0%
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 24 $11 −$1 -6%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 23 $1,004 −$1 -0%
Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 23 $25 $0 +0%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 23 $33 +$1 +3%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 22 $96 $0 +0%
Will Stačilo! win the most seats in the next Czech parliamentary elect Mar 31 $0 $0 -100%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by Friday? Jun 22 $1 $0 +4%
Will 'Wicked: For Good' have the best domestic opening weekend in 2025 Jun 05 $50 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 82¢ $84 1h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 89¢ $14 20h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 90¢ $62 22h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 90¢ $76 26h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 86¢ $36 30h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 86¢ $40 30h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 88¢ $78 32h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $79 35h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $57 38h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $22 38h
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? SELL Yes 25¢ $37 3d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? BUY Yes 25¢ $37 3d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 77¢ $87 3d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 77¢ $86 4d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 94¢ $85 5d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 94¢ $85 5d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $85 5d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $85 5d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 36¢ $60 6d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 36¢ $60 6d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 55¢ $3 8d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 55¢ $75 8d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 55¢ $78 8d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $32 9d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $45 9d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $78 10d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 61¢ $12 12d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 61¢ $5 12d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 61¢ $62 12d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 60¢ $77 12d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $84.32 · official $83.64 (match) · 343 history records